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He has been saying over and over that if you "buy and hold forever", you will NEVER lose money. That's what he ..(mathjak)..has been saying on here for the longest now, have you been paying attention?
You are right.
The problem with "never losing money in a 15 year interval" is when you are retired AND MUST WITHDRAW FUNDS TO LIVE AT YOUR DESIRED LEVEL. In that scenario you don't have 15 years to twiddle your thumbs while the market "recovers".
A sure 2% over that time frame, for that kind of investor is surely preferable to the risk of constant draw-downs in an extended bear market, which will decimate your portfolio, especially if it is under a million dollars, as there is neither TIME nor EARNED INCOME to stem the bleeding.
You are right.
The problem with "never losing money in a 15 year interval" is when you are retired AND MUST WITHDRAW FUNDS TO LIVE AT YOUR DESIRED LEVEL. In that scenario you don't have 15 years to twiddle your thumbs while the market "recovers".
A sure 2% over that time frame, for that kind of investor is surely preferable to the risk of constant draw-downs in an extended bear market, which will decimate your portfolio, especially if it is under a million dollars, as there is neither TIME nor EARNED INCOME to stem the bleeding.
Are you speaking of a scenario in which you were 100% equities and having to sell to meet cash flow needs? If so that is poor planning and can produce very poor results.
With proper allocation though studies have shown even in retirement, because it can last for a decade or multiple that exposure to equities is a possitive thing to have.
Last edited by Lowexpectations; 08-11-2015 at 10:20 AM..
Forgive me if someone already said this, as I didn't read all 8 pages, but isn't 3.4% at the beginning of August about the SAME as 6% annual? If you were up 6% now, you'd be up 10% or more by the end of the year, if the same trend continued.
Forgive me if someone already said this, as I didn't read all 8 pages, but isn't 3.4% at the beginning of August about the SAME as 6% annual? If you were up 6% now, you'd be up 10% or more by the end of the year, if the same trend continued.
It's just short of 6% annualized but yes your point is true
To answer the OP my ytd is 5.47% as of yesterday
Msif inc growth fund +12.5% ytd
Pyramis select intl small cap +15.63%
Those are my two funds that pushed returns above the s&p ytd
Last edited by Lowexpectations; 08-11-2015 at 10:34 AM..
That sounds like pretty terrible advice unless you're very close to retirement, and even then I thought the new trend was to use buckets of various risk.
Honestly - I thought so to when I first heard it as a new college grad/corporate hire. I heard from an astute friend who's knowledge of finance via his parents (and them via their parents) far surpassed my own. 15 years later, he definitely managed to accumulate a lot of wealth and financial success and also managed to dodge the "market adjustment bullets" that struck several times (and he also avoided losing a ton of money paying brokers for moving money around his accounts).
When I saw my parents, my inlaws, and a few other older couples near retirement lose 50% of their portfolios in one fell swoop in 2008/2009, it woke me up... I lost about 25% of my own as well. After a bit of research and then most recently listening to Tony Robbins, I realized, although it won't be popular in a sub-forum like this due to the Professional/Industry Insiders who monitor it (and who specifically make money as brokers/wealth managers/traders, etc), this needs to be typed out/put out there.
Unless you have the time/inclination and ability to constantly research and then move your own investments in a successful AND affordable manner, you are much better off leaving the financial services "game of risk" to those who do. The truth is that you should do that because the notion that you will mysteriously "get ahead" with your market investments and become rich with them is false. It isn't going to happen... quite simply. So protect your hard-earned income, stop this nonsense con which our parents fell for and lost their savings to... be happy if there is something inflation-protected you can put your financial assets into and minimize your exposure and risk to market forces you have zero control over (but which those in charge obviously do).
Honestly - I thought so to when I first heard it as a new college grad/corporate hire. I heard from an astute friend who's knowledge of finance via his parents (and them via their parents) far surpassed my own. 15 years later, he definitely managed to accumulate a lot of wealth and financial success and also managed to dodge the "market adjustment bullets" that struck several times (and he also avoided losing a ton of money paying brokers for moving money around his accounts).
When I saw my parents, my inlaws, and a few other older couples near retirement lose 50% of their portfolios in one fell swoop in 2008/2009, it woke me up... I lost about 25% of my own as well. After a bit of research and then most recently listening to Tony Robbins, I realized, although it won't be popular in a sub-forum like this due to the Professional/Industry Insiders who monitor it (and who specifically make money as brokers/wealth managers/traders, etc), this needs to be typed out/put out there.
Unless you have the time/inclination and ability to constantly research and then move your own investments in a successful AND affordable manner, you are much better off leaving the financial services "game of risk" to those who do. The truth is that you should do that because the notion that you will mysteriously "get ahead" with your market investments and become rich with them is false. It isn't going to happen... quite simply. So protect your hard-earned income, stop this nonsense con which our parents fell for and lost their savings to... be happy if there is something inflation-protected you can put your financial assets into and minimize your exposure and risk to market forces you have zero control over (but which those in charge obviously do).
No it is terrible advice. Since 01/01/07 SPY has a total return of 66.17% or 77.21% with dividend reinvestment, if your family members lost 50% it recovered so long as they didn't sell
P.S. You are not alone. I've also noticed that many of my AA friends have a similar mistrust for the market and preference to be an individual business owner. It's interesting from a cultural perspective (I'm a psychologist after all, lol.).
Right . To be honest Mizz, I probably believe it's best if I just don't do the Stock Market investing. Sure, I might "miss out" on potential higher returns (or miss out on losses lol), but I have my business portfolios and fixed income investments that are still making me great returns. I don't think I will ever invest in Stocks, now running businesses is what I will continue to do because that's where my specialty is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjarado
You are right.
The problem with "never losing money in a 15 year interval" is when you are retired AND MUST WITHDRAW FUNDS TO LIVE AT YOUR DESIRED LEVEL. In that scenario you don't have 15 years to twiddle your thumbs while the market "recovers".
A sure 2% over that time frame, for that kind of investor is surely preferable to the risk of constant draw-downs in an extended bear market, which will decimate your portfolio, especially if it is under a million dollars, as there is neither TIME nor EARNED INCOME to stem the bleeding.
100% correct and I have made these points time and time again to MathJak, Low E and their crew. They are just going to respond saying you are "crazy", that can "never happen" and "that has never happened in the history of the Stock Market", in terms of losing money with Paper Values. They talk as if there's no risk of losing your money with Stocks. It's why I'm just going to agree to disagree with them because they aren't going to change.
Quote:
Originally Posted by belovenow
When I saw my parents, my inlaws, and a few other older couples near retirement lose 50% of their portfolios in one fell swoop in 2008/2009, it woke me up... I lost about 25% of my own as well. After a bit of research and then most recently listening to Tony Robbins, I realized, although it won't be popular in a sub-forum like this due to the Professional/Industry Insiders who monitor it (and who specifically make money as brokers/wealth managers/traders, etc), this needs to be typed out/put out there.
Unless you have the time/inclination and ability to constantly research and then move your own investments in a successful AND affordable manner, you are much better off leaving the financial services "game of risk" to those who do. The truth is that you should do that because the notion that you will mysteriously "get ahead" with your market investments and become rich with them is false. It isn't going to happen... quite simply. So protect your hard-earned income, stop this nonsense con which our parents fell for and lost their savings to... be happy if there is something inflation-protected you can put your financial assets into and minimize your exposure and risk to market forces you have zero control over (but which those in charge obviously do).
100% true again. The issue with the Investment Community is that they are full with MathJaks and Low Expectations type of guys, which are guys that SWEAR by the Stock Market and only the Stock Market. There's no room for guys like us who want alternatives to the Stock Market because we don't have the time, patience, mental health/stress management, etc. to deal with our paper wealth going up, down, up, down, sideways, etc over 30 years. We work TOO DAMN HARD for our money to lose it. TOO DAMN HARD.
They are going to call you crazy and misinformed, trust me, they have been bashing me since I got here.
But I will continue to stand my ground that the Stock Market is really truly nothing but gambling as we are speculating on what a Stock Price is going to be in 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, etc. and nobody truly knows what that Price will be.
That's why Low E and MathJak shift the discussion, one minute they are railing against anybody not wanting to invest in Stocks saying how "stupid" and "misinformed" they are, because apparently if they just buy-hold forever, NO FUND has EVER lost money.
Then when you talk about how absurd it is to present the Stock Market as a "guaranteed return" vehicle, then they say, "When did I say you couldn't lose money?" Well, you have been saying you CAN'T lose money this entire time if one just buy-holds forever in a broad market form. So which is it? Are you ALL SET if you just buy/hold Index Funds forever, or are you not all set?
But like I said, I agree to disagree on this topic. They aren't going to change.
Right . To be honest Mizz, I probably believe it's best if I just don't do the Stock Market investing. Sure, I might "miss out" on potential higher returns (or miss out on losses lol), but I have my business portfolios and fixed income investments that are still making me great returns. I don't think I will ever invest in Stocks, now running businesses is what I will continue to do because that's where my specialty is.
It is best to stay out of investing in an area you aren't familiar with or understand relatively little about
Quote:
100% correct and I have made these points time and time again to MathJak, Low E and their crew. They are just going to respond saying you are "crazy", that can "never happen" and "that has never happened in the history of the Stock Market", in terms of losing money with Paper Values. They talk as if there's no risk of losing your money with Stocks. It's why I'm just going to agree to disagree with them because they aren't going to change.
Just because you are ignorant on the topic, ie asset allocation, diversification and the reduction of risk doesn't mean you have to make things up. You could instead listen, better understand and learn a little even if you choose not to enter the equity market. No one has said once there is no risk involved in investing the the stock market, you continue to make things up as a defense mechanism
Quote:
100% true again. The issue with the Investment Community is that they are full with MathJaks and Low Expectations type of guys, which are guys that SWEAR by the Stock Market and only the Stock Market. There's no room for guys like us who want alternatives to the Stock Market because we don't have the time, patience, mental health/stress management, etc. to deal with our paper wealth going up, down, up, down, sideways, etc over 30 years. We work TOO DAMN HARD for our money to lose it. TOO DAMN HARD.
Again making things up to help your rant continue. I have real estate, fixed income, cash holding, exchange traded notes among my equity investments. I'm certainly not a stock market only investor and neither is mathjak
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They are going to call you crazy and misinformed, trust me, they have been bashing me since I got here.
Crazy? Who knows? Misinformed? Surely
Quote:
But I will continue to stand my ground that the Stock Market is really truly nothing but gambling as we are speculating on what a Stock Price is going to be in 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, etc. and nobody truly knows what that Price will be.
Investing anywhere is a gamble, you don't know what you top line revenue will be for your business 5-15 years out, nor your net.
Quote:
That's why Low E and MathJak shift the discussion, one minute they are railing against anybody not wanting to invest in Stocks saying how "stupid" and "misinformed" they are, because apparently if they just buy-hold forever, NO FUND has EVER lost money.
Again you just continue to make things up.
Quote:
Then when you talk about how absurd it is to present the Stock Market as a "guaranteed return" vehicle, then they say, "When did I say you couldn't lose money?" Well, you have been saying you CAN'T lose money this entire time if one just buy-holds forever in a broad market form. So which is it? Are you ALL SET if you just buy/hold Index Funds forever, or are you not all set?
But like I said, I agree to disagree on this topic. They aren't going to change.
No one said anything about guaranteed returns. It's Pete the repeat parrot
Are you speaking of a scenario in which you were 100% equities and having to sell to meet cash flow needs? If so that is poor planning and can produce very poor results.
With proper allocation though studies have shown even in retirement, because it can last for a decade or multiple that exposure to equities is a possitive thing to have.
You sound relatively young, LE, so let me add the view from a few years on.
You see it all depends on how old you are, how much money you have, and how much you will need.
EG. If I am 70, have $550k in qualified plans, and $200k in after-tax money, collect no pension, with SS of $1500/mo on a desired lifestyle requiring $3500 I would be hard-pressed to justify any meaningful equity position. The $2k shortfall will be constant and growing over, lets say the next 20+ years, k?
The RMD alone will be $19k/year and that is subject to taxes, so you'll need MORE $$ from somewhere, or live smaller.
So how would you invest the funds?
What part of it would you subject to any equity risk? $50K? 100k? 300k? More?
Or invest for income with REITS? They've tanked like hell.
Hi-yield munis? ..like PR bonds?
Flipping houses? Not likely.
You see, if you don't plan on leaving a legacy to children et. al. then you actually have enough to live on till you die, or at least until it won't matter, so why risk anything? Why keep playing if you've already won the game?
Anyone with more money than that can obviously risk more, but even some of those folks simply despise seeing losses EVER. If they can draw-down $50-$60k/year for 30 years, with little risk, WHY NOT?
They sleep better, and are as safe as one can be in this unpredictable and highly volatile world.
Of course, we are all different regarding our needs vs wants, our desires vs. fears..
Vive la difference.
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. To be honest Mizz, I probably believe it's best if I just don't do the Stock Market investing. Sure, I might "miss out" on potential higher returns (or miss out on losses lol), but I have my business portfolios and fixed income investments that are still making me great returns. I don't think I will ever invest in Stocks, now running businesses is what I will continue to do because that's where my specialty is. 
