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Old 10-24-2018, 04:51 PM
 
Location: Sputnik Planitia
7,829 posts, read 11,790,682 times
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i've found the backtest visualization tools found here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com

to be immensely useful to me. For asset allocations they have data starting 1972. You can also do full Monte Carlo simulations there. Perhaps seeing actuals historically over decades will give him more confidence that he is not going to lose everything over the long term
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Old 10-24-2018, 05:04 PM
 
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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Never, NEVER take a BH advice without their disclosure of their allocation, ie eligibility for pension, type of pension, any annuities, % of retirement is SS, is pension, is annuity, is discretionary, no mortgage and other Income sources or liquidity. It's easy to " stay- the -course" when your retirement is secured in other assets.
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Old 10-24-2018, 05:45 PM
 
30,896 posts, read 36,965,098 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyingsaucermom View Post
I know it comes down to risk tolerance.

You can stay committed to a well-thought out plan like I hear from the Boglehead types. As well as on Stacking Benjamins and other media productions (podcasts, articles, etc..).

You can come on boards like this where you hear of people, also informed albeit not quite famous, selling and trading and trying to direct their assets around perceived landmines. Also in articles, podcasts or other media productions...

I guess this question is as much about couples as it is risk tolerance, or rather, couples coming to an agreement when they have different levels of risk tolerance.

How do you manage that on your own? I mean, without having to see a therapist, er, financial advisor.

My husband wants to essentially sell off our taxable account and put it into bond funds, CDs or something safer. I don't want to because it's part of our entire portfolio, which took me time to piece together and messing with it means redoing the entire thing now (instead of when I usually rebalance it). Also our taxable was set up to be more of a 15 year account, to help us when or if we get to early retirement in our mid-to later 50's. I call it the AARP account . But suddenly my husband is freaking out about college costs and wants to sell it and set the money aside for the kids.

A lot of sh1t would have to go down before we'd need that money for the kids. I mean catastrophic crap like our income being reduced to 1/3 for multiple years, our assets being depreciated to half, my husband's bonuses would have to dry up (in the form of FAANG stocks, 5 figure value about once a year, with a number that usually starts with a 3 or 4). The money in their 529s would also have to dry up too (admittedly it's not that much about $30k each).

I think we need to stay the course, leave our taxable the f- alone, but if he wants to do something with future savings we can look at directing more money, specifically for college, in other places.

He's worried about the coming recession. He's sure it's at our door. He's positive that the market will tumble 30-40% and take decades to recover.

The worst part is, I can't say he's wrong. He's an incredible systems thinker. He could be right.

Or not..
Well, I think it's a bad idea to sell everything and put it in bond funds. Extreme moves are almost always a bad idea. However, tilting your portfolio more conservative could be a good idea. You might want to remind him that most bond funds are down YTD while stocks are still up, even after today's rotten day. Here are things you could do:

--Take future non-retirement savings and add them to bond funds and money market accounts.
--Take any capital gain and dividend distributions from stock funds and add them to bond funds and money market accounts.

I probably wouldn't go more conservative than that.

Also, while I really don't think selling shares is a good idea, I tend to like low volatility stock funds for this reason. Even lower volatility dividend oriented index funds to work. I just put a friend of mine's taxable investment money in several different funds. Here are the ones I considered (due to tax efficiency, performance, and volatility). These would be funds to consider for future stock fund purchases if/when you get your nerve back:

--Mairs & Power Growth
--Mairs & Power Balanced
--Amana Growth
--Amana Income
--Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (both etf and mutual fund)
--Parnassus Core Equity
--AMG Yacktman

Last edited by mysticaltyger; 10-24-2018 at 05:54 PM..
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