Miami Sees Its First Population Drop in Decades (Delray Beach: low income, HOA)

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by CXT2000

1. 80K leaving is substantial, especially since it's accelerating yearly.

not really....read the fine print...Miami's population only dropped 20,000

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...se-prices.html

they focus on people that can't afford rent, etc......no one renting out properties is having trouble renting them

[elchevere]

Not sure who said Miami was a city for all.

3% is NOT substantial (even with more competition for South Americans from other cities, keep in mind COVID travel barrier restrictions for international travelers (including subsequent buyers) to the US, an important component of Miami, was not lifted until the end of 2021—nearly 2 years of this 3 year population decline number).

I'm sure there are plenty of people in other cities who wish homeless tent cities were pushed away from the heart of some of their most desirable neighborhoods and I highly doubt new shops and restaurants--some highly successful ones from NYC, CA and Europe--didn't do their homework and opened up here to fail within a few months (the closing of a scaled down Time Out Market is statistically insignificant and has since been more than replaced).

Others are struggling on $150K in a number of other expensive coastal cities, including in their smaller and older housing stock with less building amenities.

Here's another interesting article I came across. While it certainly acknowledges the housing affordability and stalled economic momentum issues you mentioned, it also offers some other glimpses of hope as Miami's economy faces another turning point--so it's not all doom and gloom as you (CXT) suggest:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...oint-rcna95083


"In interviews, people who have moved to the city since the pandemic say that despite setbacks, Miami remains a destination for driven entrepreneurs who may also be seeking a better, more balanced quality of life, especially compared to the struggles seen recently in tech’s traditional base in the San Francisco Bay Area."

"'It’s still happening,” Alex Taub, co-founder and CEO of Upstream, which allows users to build their own blockchain-based communities, known as decentralized autonomous organizations, said of the Miami movement...“I’m sure some people who came here have gone back, but I think it’s a very legitimate place to stay and build a business,” Taub said. Among those who have continued the trend of moving to Miami is Falon Fatemi, a former Google and YouTube employee who is now building Fireside, a platform that allows brands and entertainers to monetize fan experiences to grow their franchise."

"But Killingsworth noted that by one measure, venture capital in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area reached $5.8 billion in 2022, good enough for seventh in the nation"

"A lot of tech influencers, funders and creators have moved to Miami and created opportunity,” he said. I still see a ton of continued momentum in Miami — a lot of excitement is still brewing".

[hashbrown]

How have prices skyrocketed and stayed high if so many people have left? Makes no sense. Are property owners keeping units vacant?

[mechgator]

Originally Posted by hashbrown

How have prices skyrocketed and stayed high if so many people have left? Makes no sense. Are property owners keeping units vacant?

The key is the geography. Miami metro is surrounded by water on one side and Everglades on the other side. So there is limited land for (housing) growth. So what appears to be a paradox (no ”net” population growth yet skyrocketing housing cost) ceases to be so once one understands that more affluent people are pushing out those less financially able.

Conversely, cities with more land to build housing could potentially see an explosion in population with yet modest housing cost increase due to such potential supply matching the increasing demand.

[elchevere]

One other point of clarification:

New residents/Foreign immigration—even with Covid barriers in place for most of the 3 year period discussed here—brought MDC’s population decline down from 2.9% (79.5K) to 0.8% (21.6K).

[memph]

Originally Posted by hashbrown

How have prices skyrocketed and stayed high if so many people have left? Makes no sense. Are property owners keeping units vacant?

Might be slight decreases in household sizes and not much new construction? That can happen in many aging cities - kids move out from their parents to more affordable cities, and parents remain in their 3 bedroom+ homes instead of downsizing. Or big lower income households (lots of kids, or with relatives beyond the traditional nuclear family) being displaced by affluent 1-3 person households.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by hashbrown

How have prices skyrocketed and stayed high if so many people have left? Makes no sense. Are property owners keeping units vacant?

of course not.....if they couldn't rent for that price they would lower it

they're not having any problems renting units out

[sinatras]

i was in my hometown miami last weekend; even hotter than tampa and endless traffic. but great restaurants!

seems like miami and the rest of the state could stand to lose a few million ppl

[nidex]

My anecdote: I left Miami during the pandemic. Our rent was going to jump 40%, and my job gave me a whopping 3% cost of living adjustment even though I had been busting my ass the past year, getting praise from management. Middle management said they tried to get me more, but the higher ups were "being cautious" because of covid. Yet, they had money to buy new offices in other parts of the country. That left a sour taste in my mouth.

When I put my notice in, they offered me a $5k bump. Mind you, I was still getting paid below "average market rate" compared to the rest of the country. I work in a somewhat niche tech sector.

I started looking elsewhere and landed in Texas, making 20k more than in Miami, paying less money for triple the space. In the past two years, my salary has increased 35%. I now own my own home, something that seemed out of reach in Miami once the pandemic started. At least for a place that wasn't falling apart at every corner. My house here in Texas is brand new. A comparable place in Miami would be a million dollars.

The people are nicer here. They're genuinely friendly. People actually say excuse me when you're in their way at the grocery store, as opposed to smashing their cart into yours and giving you the side eye. I don't feel like I need to have my guard up all the time to make sure someone isn't trying to run a scam on me. The drivers are much better; I have yet to see someone back up on the expressway because they missed their exit. It is majority Latino here, but I don't get an attitude for speaking English in settings like restaurants, bars, etc. Add to that, people are expected to know enough English to at least get by. There's also more job opportunities for me, and a lot more upward mobility in general.

With all of that said, I often find myself daydreaming about Miami. Checking rentals, looking on StreetView at my old stomping grounds. Talking to old friends about what's going on. Thinking of ways that I could "make it work" and keep my same quality of life that I have now.

I wouldn't say I'm unhappy, but I might be bored. I haven't really met anyone outside of work since I've been here, so my weekends are just alone time. There were so many things I hated about Miami when I was there, but looking back, I had a great time. Maybe it was just the point in my life that I was at, maybe not. Regardless, I miss it, often enough that I'm here reading posts, and posting this.

Maybe in a few years, things will have cooled off with pricing (wishful thinking, I know), I'll have built some equity, can secure a remote job, and can move back. Who knows.

[gixxer1000]

Higher income people are coming in and pushing lower income people out. Overall I think this is fundamentally good for Miami for a couple reasons. First keep in mind this is happening admist a huge population boom in Florida.



People by and large are choosing to leaving California, NY and DC for Florida, Texas and other souther States. As they flood to Florida Miami is becoming the destination for top earns and those that want an urban lifestyle. This is pushing the low to middle income families to other parts of the state. Miami Dade county population is down slightly, Broward is flat and Palm Beach is up. So people aren't leaving the state they're moving to the areas that best fit their needs and lifestyle.

This should do a lot to greatly increase the quality of life. For starters, 5 year per capita income is up 44% in Miami vs 24% in NY or 33% in Los Angeles.

Another issue in Miami is that we have huge amount of inner city suburbs that are completely neglected. Look at the map in the second stickied thread in the forum. Little Havana, West Flagler, Liberty City, Little River, Little Haiti, Pinewood, etc. These are all well located neighborhoods that are looked over. As the unafordability continues to rise, higher income people are going to be forced into these areas causing them to change dramatically. A neighborhood like Wynwood didn't even exist 15 years ago and now its a huge destination.

In the near future we will have many new neighborhoods creating a more diverse set of options making the city even more desirable.