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After all the news on the recent uptick in sales, I was surprised to notice that sales in some towns I've been looking at are down heavily year on year.
After checking trulia, it looks like all the numbers from Essex County are down heavily year on year, with steep declines in some of Bergen County as well. Union county seems the most stable, some of the often recommended towns (Cranford, Westfield, Summit) showing more modest drops, and Elizabeth showing a massive increase.
Zillow similarly shows steep declines in Bergen and Essex County.
Here are the numbers from trulia (town, number of sales, year on year change). I have all of Essex County and a few from Union, Bergen and Passaic.
seems like the rich towns with insane prices are not having any houses selling.
yeah, looks like a stand-off -- buyers not accepting outrageous prices, and sellers holding firm on 2006 prices. I think it might have been you who suggested we need to wait for them to move, or die ?
The higher end part of the market is largely unaffected by the tax credit -- you're under the limit for the tax credit and you're short enough on personal savings that the tax credit matters, you're not really in the market for a 500k+ house.
I noticed some of the cheaper places in South Orange (2br houses or half-duplex semi-detached houses around 300k that are not tear-downs) sold pretty quickly.
I think it will take a couple of years to return to affordability. Government, as elford mentioned tries to support prices up so banks remain solvent, and the decrease is slow.
However, it IS happening and there are some other factors that will contribute to the decrease:
1. high taxes
2. shadow inventory currently under banks control
3. arm loans reset peak in 2011
4. people turning 65 peak in 2015
I expect an at least 20% off current prices (depending on the price range-less for low range higher for upper range) INDEPENDENTLY of inflation as there will be no wage increase soon (except of course goldman bonuses)
Just curious, what do these example have to do with the high end market?
They have to do with the fact that lower end places which are competitively priced, are moving faster. That might explain the large uptick in sales in elizabeth.
It also confirms my observation about the S.O. market -- West Orange has a similar level of decline in sales, and it's probably because the higher end of the market is completely frozen.
The annoying thing is the realtors, all telling their clients to
buy now because the bottom has hit and prices are rising.
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