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In presidential elections, I think VA is pretty much firmly in the Dem column now but on the state level, things are more purplish. I believe Republicans control the state legislature and their governors usually go back and forth between Democrats and Republicans. In the DMV, Virginia is seen as conservative.
I agree. I think that Virginia is a more reliably blue than purple state in Presidential elections from now on. In 2016, if Trump was able to flip some blue states to red (P.A., W.I., M.I., etc) then V.A. would have been a pick up as well for Trump. The D.C. spill over population is just too much for a Republican candidate to overcome I think.
As for NC, going blue once in 2008 (by 14,000 votes) since 1976 was a one time deal. Not to mention Obama outspending McCain by double and visiting the state 12 to McCain's 8 times. Obama was able to energize minority and college students like no other candidate before him.
NC is somewhat hard to judge though due to rapid population increases like Florida and Texas, but it is apparent that while the population changes have put NC into a close single digit election state, it is much more reliably Republican state than Democrats had hoped for after 2008.
I also wonder in 2020 how much attention national Democrats will pay to NC since they will be shoring up states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, etc.
So in that sense, NC is more like SC in Presidential elections. The states tend to differ though with NC having competitive Governor races while SC is pretty solid Republican.
There's some objectivity to that, but the point is that the whole "Deep South" thing isn't as negative as some make it out to be.
Just for the record; I definitely wasn't implying that "Deep South" is a negative indicator. Just that it is a distinction that is often made. I don't think most people associate "deep south" as a negative identifier.
Just for the record; I definitely wasn't implying that "Deep South" is a negative indicator. Just that it is a distinction that is often made. I don't think most people associate "deep south" as a negative identifier.
They do. And the term is most often used in the media and typically in relation to ultra-conservative politics, negative health outcomes, poverty, etc.
I agree. I think that Virginia is a more reliably blue than purple state in Presidential elections from now on. In 2016, if Trump was able to flip some blue states to red (P.A., W.I., M.I., etc) then V.A. would have been a pick up as well for Trump. The D.C. spill over population is just too much for a Republican candidate to overcome I think.
As for NC, going blue once in 2008 (by 14,000 votes) since 1976 was a one time deal. Not to mention Obama outspending McCain by double and visiting the state 12 to McCain's 8 times. Obama was able to energize minority and college students like no other candidate before him.
NC is somewhat hard to judge though due to rapid population increases like Florida and Texas, but it is apparent that while the population changes have put NC into a close single digit election state, it is much more reliably Republican state than Democrats had hoped for after 2008.
I'm not too surprised by NC's performance in the past few elections. NC is the most polarized state by age in the country. Unless demographic trends are favorable for democrats in the coming years, team blue can only win this state in years where they generate unusually high youth turnout, like 2008. The rest of the time it will function like a red state, for national elections at least.
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I also wonder in 2020 how much attention national Democrats will pay to NC since they will be shoring up states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, etc.
I'm sure the focus will be on getting back Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin... but Ohio is totally gone. Trump won it by almost the same margin as Texas (8%!). They love the Donald up there, and the demographic trends look grim for the future. I think NC and AZ will be heavily targeted in an attempt to replace it.
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So in that sense, NC is more like SC in Presidential elections. The states tend to differ though with NC having competitive Governor races while SC is pretty solid Republican.
Trump won NC by 4 points, and won SC by 14 points. Fundamentally, NC is a swing state and very different from a deep south state like SC... although it's worth noting that SC is also very different from states like TN, WV, and AL where Trump won by 30+ points, and not as dark a shade of red as some think. The demographic trends that have shifted NC over time are also operating at a slower pace in SC.
Trump won NC by 4 points, and won SC by 14 points. Fundamentally, NC is a swing state and very different from a deep south state like SC... although it's worth noting that SC is also very different from states like TN, WV, and AL where Trump won by 30+ points, and not as dark a shade of red as some think. The demographic trends that have shifted NC over time are also operating at a slower pace in SC.
I'm glad you made that distinction. And note that TN and KY are Upper South states and Trump won those states by a much larger margin than he won SC.
I'm not too surprised by NC's performance in the past few elections. NC is the most polarized state by age in the country. Unless demographic trends are favorable for democrats in the coming years, team blue can only win this state in years where they generate unusually high youth turnout, like 2008. The rest of the time it will function like a red state, for national elections at least.
I'm sure the focus will be on getting back Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin... but Ohio is totally gone. Trump won it by almost the same margin as Texas (8%!). They love the Donald up there, and the demographic trends look grim for the future. I think NC and AZ will be heavily targeted in an attempt to replace it.
Trump won NC by 4 points, and won SC by 14 points. Fundamentally, NC is a swing state and very different from a deep south state like SC... although it's worth noting that SC is also very different from states like TN, WV, and AL where Trump won by 30+ points, and not as dark a shade of red as some think. The demographic trends that have shifted NC over time are also operating at a slower pace in SC.
Ohio is most certainly not gone. The last time it was on a losing presidential side was 1960. Not because it influenced, but because it's got so much that represents the rest of the country. Iowa was 10 points too, I don't think using this election as a barometer going forward, just like the 2020 election won't necessarily predict 2024, even though there's a huge chance things swing the other way significantly.
Comparing it to Texas also isn't great. Texas is very rapidly changing. The rural areas are still deeply conservative, but anchors of the Texas Triangle continue to grow very rapidly, along with the Rio Grande valley being very hispanic. You could see it increasingly start to become more and more competitive in presidential years. It's not Oklahoma or Louisiana.
Arizona is changing as well is very possible that could flip, and soon, since it's rural areas are often sparsely populated.
This Triangle superiority complex--more specifically, this Raleigh superiority complex--is really a "thing" I see.
Lol man I've been telling you for years lol...
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Originally Posted by Vatnos
Perhaps NC does have a superiority complex. Yet another thing it shares with its neighbor Virginia, I suppose.
Negative...
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Originally Posted by Carolina_native
Sort of like how the same people who live in VA refuse to admit they live in the South, and prefer the term "Mid-Atlantic".
Well, Virginia is Mid-Atlantic. I can tell you that almost everyone from the Hampton Roads area associates themselves as southerners. It's different in Richmond, where it's atmosphere and relations are more firmly entrenched to northern cities and states, but even there, it's not unique to hear someone identify as a southerner...
It's very different in Nova, where most people don't identify as southerners. The entire state is a southern state, that includes NoVa, but that doesn't preclude us from also being Mid-Atlantic. We can walk and chew gum at the same time...
I do agree that many NC'ers from the Triangle and Triad measure themselves against Virginia more than SC...
Well, Virginia is Mid-Atlantic. I can tell you that almost everyone from the Hampton Roads area associates themselves as southerners. It's different in Richmond, where it's atmosphere and relations are more firmly entrenched to northern cities and states, but even there, it's not unique to hear someone identify as a southerner...
It's very different in Nova, where most people don't identify as southerners. The entire state is a southern state, that includes NoVa, but that doesn't preclude us from also being Mid-Atlantic. We can walk and chew gum at the same time...
I do agree that many NC'ers from the Triangle and Triad measure themselves against Virginia more than SC...
Who are you meeting from Hampton Roads that associates with being a southerner? Most people I know from the area will argue with you about how they are from the mid-atlantic, middle-east, etc (atleast from my generation). I even got in arguments with many people when I first moved to the area who refused to be considered southern. Even an older lady (60's) at my job from Hampton told me that Virginia is more eastcoast than southern the other day. Lol. I first moved to the area in high school (2003) and everything was east-coast influenced from the dress styles, slang/accent, etc (think Pusha-t/Clipse/Pharrell/Allen Iverson/Missy) and anything associated with southern/country, etc was considered negative. Lots of transplants have saturated that area for many years (NYC/Jersey/Philly). Also, mid-atlantic has been used in business names, etc in Hampton Roads since the 90's. I agree with you that Virginia is both mid-atlantic and southern. I think some in NC might compare themselves more to Virginians than South Carolina though. However, it seems like people in the major urban areas of VA compare themselves more to DC and Maryland. Even in Hampton Roads, DC is considered the major city for the area and many people make frequent trips out there. Technically Maryland isn't that far away from Hampton Roads because of the eastern shore (about an hour and a half/two hours from Virginia Beach). That's how many people from NYC and Philly get to Hampton Roads. It is a six hour trip to NYC from Virginia Beach through the eastern shore and four and a half hour drive to Philly.
Who are you meeting from Hampton Roads that associates with being a southerner? Most people I know from the area will argue with you about how they are from the mid-atlantic, middle-east, etc (atleast from my generation). I even got in arguments with many people when I first moved to the area who refused to be considered southern. Even an older lady (60's) at my job from Hampton told me that Virginia is more eastcoast than southern the other day. Lol. I first moved to the area in high school (2003) and everything was east-coast influenced from the dress styles, slang/accent, etc (think Pusha-t/Clipse/Pharrell/Allen Iverson/Missy) and anything associated with southern/country, etc was considered negative. Lots of transplants have saturated that area for many years (NYC/Jersey/Philly). Also, mid-atlantic has been used in business names, etc in Hampton Roads since the 90's. I agree with you that Virginia is both mid-atlantic and southern. I think some in NC might compare themselves more to Virginians than South Carolina though. However, it seems like people in the major urban areas of VA compare themselves more to DC and Maryland. Even in Hampton Roads, DC is considered the major city for the area and many people make frequent trips out there. Technically Maryland isn't that far away from Hampton Roads because of the eastern shore (about an hour and a half/two hours from Virginia Beach). That's how many people from NYC and Philly get to Hampton Roads. It is a six hour trip to NYC from Virginia Beach through the eastern shore and four and a half hour drive to Philly.
Virginia is in the middle east huh? Who knew!
Also....the tab and enter keys are your friends. I promise!
Who are you meeting from Hampton Roads that associates with being a southerner? Most people I know from the area will argue with you about how they are from the mid-atlantic, middle-east, etc (atleast from my generation). I even got in arguments with many people when I first moved to the area who refused to be considered southern. Even an older lady (60's) at my job from Hampton told me that Virginia is more eastcoast than southern the other day. Lol. I first moved to the area in high school (2003) and everything was east-coast influenced from the dress styles, slang/accent, etc (think Pusha-t/Clipse/Pharrell/Allen Iverson/Missy) and anything associated with southern/country, etc was considered negative. Lots of transplants have saturated that area for many years (NYC/Jersey/Philly). Also, mid-atlantic has been used in business names, etc in Hampton Roads since the 90's. I agree with you that Virginia is both mid-atlantic and southern. I think some in NC might compare themselves more to Virginians than South Carolina though. However, it seems like people in the major urban areas of VA compare themselves more to DC and Maryland. Even in Hampton Roads, DC is considered the major city for the area and many people make frequent trips out there. Technically Maryland isn't that far away from Hampton Roads because of the eastern shore (about an hour and a half/two hours from Virginia Beach). That's how many people from NYC and Philly get to Hampton Roads. It is a six hour trip to NYC from Virginia Beach through the eastern shore and four and a half hour drive to Philly.
I have to say, that statement about folks from Hampton Roads identifying primarily as Southerners did make me tilt my head a bit. Even here on C-D, they seem to identify more with the mid-Atlantic or East Coast than the South.
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