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Any idea on which one might prevail at the moment?
At the moment its a statistical tie. As far as who will come out victorious on November 3rd, my ability to accurately foretell future events is quite limited, unfortunately.
Most polls still have Cunningham up over Tillis. Only two polls have them tied (Rasmussen and Ipsos) and none have Tillis ahead. Some have them very very close (like ABC/Washington Post at 49/48).
I know it's not in the thread title, but isn't the General Assembly up for grabs this year? Any chance of either house flipping?
Yes, the entire General Assembly is up for a vote every 2 years.
Democrats need to flip 6 seats in the house to gain control. There are 11 republican-held seats that are considered flippable, and at least 3 democratic-held seats that are also flippable the other way.
"If the gerrymandered maps used in 2018 had remained in place in 2020, Democrats would have faced a narrow path to taking the majority in the NC House that would have required a clean sweep of every district that was remotely competitive – i.e., with a Republican partisan advantage of 7 points or less.
Under the new NC House map, the path to a Democratic majority has improved in two important ways: First, the competitive landscape has broadened considerably, with 11 Republican-held districts very much in play in 2020. Second, the top targets for Democrats have become much more favorable, reducing the size of the Democratic surge needed to take the majority."
Democrats need a net gain of 5 seats in the senate to gain control.
"The new NC Senate map improves the landscape for Democrats in several ways: four of the highly competitive seats Democrats flipped will be easier to hold in 2020; two districts in suburban Charlotte and Raleigh should be relatively easy pickups; and two districts in the Rocky Mount and Winston-Salem areas have also become more favorable for Democrats.
Despite these improvements, Republicans retain a structural advantage under the new NC Senate map. To take the majority, Democrats will need to win in three districts with a partisan lean favoring Republicans by 5 to 8 points. While this is a bigger swing than what is needed to flip the pivotal seats in the NC House, there are fewer vulnerable Democrat-held seats to defend in the NC Senate."
Yes, the entire General Assembly is up for a vote every 2 years.
Democrats need to flip 6 seats in the house to gain control. There are 11 republican-held seats that are considered flippable, and at least 3 democratic-held seats that are also flippable the other way.
"If the gerrymandered maps used in 2018 had remained in place in 2020, Democrats would have faced a narrow path to taking the majority in the NC House that would have required a clean sweep of every district that was remotely competitive – i.e., with a Republican partisan advantage of 7 points or less.
Under the new NC House map, the path to a Democratic majority has improved in two important ways: First, the competitive landscape has broadened considerably, with 11 Republican-held districts very much in play in 2020. Second, the top targets for Democrats have become much more favorable, reducing the size of the Democratic surge needed to take the majority."
Democrats need a net gain of 5 seats in the senate to gain control.
"The new NC Senate map improves the landscape for Democrats in several ways: four of the highly competitive seats Democrats flipped will be easier to hold in 2020; two districts in suburban Charlotte and Raleigh should be relatively easy pickups; and two districts in the Rocky Mount and Winston-Salem areas have also become more favorable for Democrats.
Despite these improvements, Republicans retain a structural advantage under the new NC Senate map. To take the majority, Democrats will need to win in three districts with a partisan lean favoring Republicans by 5 to 8 points. While this is a bigger swing than what is needed to flip the pivotal seats in the NC House, there are fewer vulnerable Democrat-held seats to defend in the NC Senate."
Most polls still have Cunningham up over Tillis. Only two polls have them tied (Rasmussen and Ipsos) and none have Tillis ahead. Some have them very very close (like ABC/Washington Post at 49/48).
And I don't know how accurate the Rasmussen poll is..
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