Tysons Failing (Arlington, Reston, Bailey's Crossroads: real estate, condos, brokers)

[pcity]

The Cowen article is heavy on "feelings" and short on data. The only data Cowen really uses is the fact that home sales in Fairfax County are down. While that, with other data, could be used to prove his point, he doesn't cite anything else. While I like reading Cowen, this piece just looks like random musings not to be taken seriously.

[JD984]

TE - I think you have to brace yourself for many attacks on Tysons redevelopment over a long period. You have people who want other commercial real estate markets to do better than Tysons, people who want other residential real estate markets to do better than Tysons, people who hate Virginia generally, people who hate the urbanization of Fairfax County, and others I'm surely omitting.

I worked in downtown DC near a block slated for redevelopment that stood largely empty for a better part of a decade in the 1990s (Oliver Carr had purchased the buildings and bought out all the existing tenants, and then sat on the properties for many years). People forget that redevelopment has starts and stops. They just see the end product years later. Any time a development in Tysons stalls or a building doesn't get leased quickly - and some will and won't - some people will jump on it as evidence that Tysons is a flop. If you let it, these folks will drive you crazy.

[Mr. Benz]

Tyson's just doesn't have that city feel to it for some reason, maybe that will change over time. They made a big mistake though I feel when they didn't put the part of the metro line underground.

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by JEB77

TE - I think you have to brace yourself for many attacks on Tysons redevelopment over a long period. You have people who want other commercial real estate markets to do better than Tysons, people who want other residential real estate markets to do better than Tysons, people who hate Virginia generally, people who hate the urbanization of Fairfax County, and others I'm surely omitting.

I worked in downtown DC near a block slated for redevelopment that stood largely empty for a better part of a decade in the 1990s (Oliver Carr had purchased the buildings and bought out all the existing tenants, and then sat on the properties for many years). People forget that redevelopment has starts and stops. They just see the end product years later. Any time a development in Tysons stalls or a building doesn't get leased quickly - and some will and won't - some people will jump on it as evidence that Tysons is a flop. If you let it, these folks will drive you crazy.

I've become quite familiar with what you are referring to, and its absolutely true what you say. That being said, as a person who runs a website about things happening in Tysons, I feel an obligation to provide the objective numbers to disprove those who fall into the camp of "haters gonna hate". My sanity is in tact, I simply am looking to provide the numbers and provide a counterpoint.

[Hifi_Hokie]

Originally Posted by Old Guard

Do you think that when those Yuppies start having childrens

So, in 15 years, if it all?

The propensity of people my age (late-twenties) to hold off having kids, or being committed DINKs, will change areas significantly.

All I know is I'm glad I got out of McLean when I did...

[Old Guard]

Originally Posted by Hifi_Hokie

So, in 15 years, if it all?

The propensity of people my age (late-twenties) to hold off having kids, or being committed DINKs, will change areas significantly.

All I know is I'm glad I got out of McLean when I did...

I know a lot will not have kids or move before or when they do. But Falls Church city is almost unrecognizable to me. It is like Arlington meets Williams-Sonoma and Martha Stewart. If it was smaller and more modest I would call it the Mayberry of Northern VA.

[Carlingtonian]

I think what Cowen meant by saying "Tysons will fail" is that it will fail to become some walkable mixed-use area instead of a collection of offices and stores traversed by freeways. (As the latter, it's very successful.) It is hard to see how Tysons will ever morph from "Rosslyn II" into something like RTC. Not saying it's impossible--and I'm willing to believe it's progressed--but last I saw, it had a way to go.

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by Carlingtonian

I think what Cowen meant by saying "Tysons will fail" is that it will fail to become some walkable mixed-use area instead of a collection of offices and stores traversed by freeways. (As the latter, it's very successful.) It is hard to see how Tysons will ever morph from "Rosslyn II" into something like RTC. Not saying it's impossible--and I'm willing to believe it's progressed--but last I saw, it had a way to go.

Do you concur that a lot of what Arlington looked like in 1970 is similar? Lots of surface parking lots. Some over sized badly designed intersections? The one thing Arlington had before was a street grid, but that is fairly superficial in fixing; just takes time, but its not really a big cost just something that naturally happens with each building.

If you concur Arlington also was not the walkable mixed use area in the 70s, then you must consider that we are simply seeing a recurrence of what happened in Arlington but now in Tysons.

[Back to NE]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

Do you concur that a lot of what Arlington looked like in 1970 is similar? Lots of surface parking lots. Some over sized badly designed intersections? The one thing Arlington had before was a street grid, but that is fairly superficial in fixing; just takes time, but its not really a big cost just something that naturally happens with each building.

If you concur Arlington also was not the walkable mixed use area in the 70s, then you must consider that we are simply seeing a recurrence of what happened in Arlington but now in Tysons.

But Arlington's location is 1,000 x better than Tyson's. Arlington is probably the 1st choice DC suburb for young professionals to live in, in large part due to the location. The best and the brightest young people don't want suburban car culture and Tyson's doesn't offer anything but.

I agree with Carlingtonian, that the article is mostly about Tyson's failure as a walkable, mixed use city.

2 years ago I declined on the most lucrative job offer of my life because it was in Tysons. A Starbucks represents high culture in Tysons. There is nothing compelling there besides basic American consumerism.

[JD984]

Originally Posted by Back to NE

But Arlington's location is 1,000 x better than Tyson's. Arlington is probably the 1st choice DC suburb for young professionals to live in, in large part due to the location. The best and the brightest young people don't want suburban car culture and Tyson's doesn't offer anything but.

I agree with Carlingtonian, that the article is mostly about Tyson's failure as a walkable, mixed use city.

2 years ago I declined on the most lucrative job offer of my life because it was in Tysons. A Starbucks represents high culture in Tysons. There is nothing compelling there besides basic American consumerism.

The irony, of course, is that Tysons Engineer is apparently a good bit younger than you (you describe yourself in other posts as over 40 and middle-aged) and sees things differently.

I see people commuting in the AM now from points east to Tysons by Metro - perhaps one took the higher-paying job you passed on. If Tysons redevelopment gains some traction, some of them will invariably relocate to Tysons residential properties and then, if they decide they need more space later, look in nearby parts of Fairfax. The movement from Arlington condos to Arlington single-family homes by young professionals has been part of the Arlington story in the past few decades and need not be unique to Arlington. Much of Arlington is car-oriented once you get away from the R-B corridor or the areas off the Blue Line.