Admission to Pittsburgh's charters and magnets becomes more difficult... (Upper St. Clair: middle-class, 2013)

[eschaton]

Read all about it:

This is far more interesting than the article, which concentrates on Frick ECS (which continues to grow in popularity despite mediocre results).



The statistics here aren't as bad as they look. Since you are supposed to apply for up to three Pittsburgh magnets, and you should not get into more than one, your chances should in theory be pretty high.

Sticking to just the East End, they could be as high as 127% (certain) if you applied to Fulton, Liberty, and the Linden Mandarin program, or as low as 55% if you applied to Montessori, Dilworth, and the Linden German program.

We weren't planning on applying to Montessori next year because we thought it was a waste of time at age five to compete for those 15 or so slots when so many more are available at Dilworth, Liberty, and Linden. I'm glad I read the article however, because I had no idea that the Mandarin program was so under-enrolled, and we'll pick that instead. Of course, everyone else might too.

Edit: It does look like Pittsburgh would be well-served by creating another magnet school however. As long as any parents don't get into one of the three options in the lottery, they surely aren't offering enough slots.

[SteelCityRising]

Anecdotally I happen to believe that the rush of 20-somethings into the East End over the past five years or so will generate a mini-"baby boom" in the city over the next five years as these younger people marry and spawn, followed by either:

a.) a very competitive charter/magnet school scene if these residents opt to stay in the city to raise their children

b.) a future outflux of residents into the suburbs for perceived "better" public school options

c.) organic improvement of the public school system in the city as more residents try to improve it for their children

[Evergrey]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Anecdotally I happen to believe that the rush of 20-somethings into the East End over the past five years or so will generate a mini-"baby boom" in the city over the next five years as these younger people marry and spawn, followed by either:

a.) a very competitive charter/magnet school scene if these residents opt to stay in the city to raise their children

b.) a future outflux of residents into the suburbs for perceived "better" public school options

c.) organic improvement of the public school system in the city as more residents try to improve it for their children

d.) a boom in the DINK demographic

[sealie]

Why do you say that ECS is delivering mediocre results? Are you basing that on test scores or collegiate achievement or something else?

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by Evergrey

d.) a boom in the DINK demographic

Perhaps. The Central North Side and Allegheny West are two of my favorite DINKy neighborhoods. I don't know if I want DINKs to dominate the entirety of our fair city. We need kids, too! We can't send all young parents packing for Upper St. Clair or Fox Chapel when their kids turn five or six.

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Sticking to just the East End, they could be as high as 127% (certain) if you applied to Fulton, Liberty, and the Linden Mandarin program, or as low as 55% if you applied to Montessori, Dilworth, and the Linden German program.

It looks like what you did is calculated the probability of getting into each school from the numbers in the table (.43662, .309783, .52381) and added them up. That isn't correct as joint probabilities are multiplicative, not additive. The joint probability you want is the probability of not getting into all three schools, so: (1-.43662)*(1-.309783)*(1-.52381) = .185169

Which is to say that you have an 81.5% chance of getting into at least one of those three schools.

(The actual probability is slightly higher because some number of people will win two or more lotteries, but only take one slot. That effectively lowers the number of applicants, but I can't really estimate by how much. Also, some people could win and not take the slot for whatever reason.)

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by Moby Hick

It looks like what you did is calculated the probability of getting into each school from the numbers in the table (.43662, .309783, .52381) and added them up. That isn't correct as joint probabilities are multiplicative, not additive. The joint probability you want is the probability of not getting into all three schools, so: (1-.43662)*(1-.309783)*(1-.52381) = .185169

My head hurts now, and my background is in Accounting!

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Anecdotally I happen to believe that the rush of 20-somethings into the East End over the past five years or so will generate a mini-"baby boom" in the city over the next five years as these younger people marry and spawn, followed by either:

a.) a very competitive charter/magnet school scene if these residents opt to stay in the city to raise their children

b.) a future outflux of residents into the suburbs for perceived "better" public school options

c.) organic improvement of the public school system in the city as more residents try to improve it for their children

I expect you'll see a bit of each of these depending upon the area of the city.

I do not see a way to restore confidence in neighborhood schools among the non-impoverished white population in the Upper East End (most notably Highland Park, Morningside, Stanton Heights, Lawrenceville, Polish Hill, Bloomfield, and Friendship), or most of the North Side. While I know of many examples where heavily black neighborhoods have gone back to being racially mixed, I'm not aware of any cases where a critical mass of middle-class white parents began feeling comfortable sending their kids to 70%-90% black schools, which is where the feeder patterns in these neighborhoods are now, mostly. The working-class white population long since moved to Catholic schools if they had any money to speak of, and the middle-class population uses magnets, charters, and private schools. The only way I could see around this is if an existing school with a good reputation was extended into this area, and this would probably only help Friendship. Or to due blatant racial gerrymandering of feeder patterns, which would get overturned by the courts, and be horrible press for our fair city. No thank you.

On the other hand, the working-class white population never abandoned the public schools in most of the neighborhoods South of the Mon, or the Spring Hill area of the North Side (which also includes Spring Garden and Troy Hill). These schools don't score all that well, but they have a 50/50 racial mix, or are still predominantly white, which sadly improves the appeal for appeal for many people, if only unconsciously. There's already been a bit of this in Greenfield and Brookline, where young professionals are moving in part because they hear the neighborhood schools are decent. Presuming city-wide development continues, I see no reason why neighborhood schools in Beechview, Duquense Heights/Mount Washington, and the South Side won't also improve, and then another tranche of schools after that.

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

My head hurts now, and my background is in Accounting!

Just think about it without numbers. You have three events, all of which have some chance of not occurring. There's no way of sticking them together and coming out with a sure thing.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by sealie

Why do you say that ECS is delivering mediocre results? Are you basing that on test scores or collegiate achievement or something else?

I've looked at PSSA results for each grade, and adjusting for the racial demographics of ECS (which is a bit whiter than the East End magnets, Colfax, or Minadeo), it generally doesn't perform as well.

The gap is particularly bad for black students, who score way, way lower than at the magnets. black students do due better at ECS than the neighborhood schools in the Lower East End. Still, this is nothing to crow about - the black kids at Colfax and Minadeo are basically everyone in the random bits of Hazelwood and Homewood, many of whom don't have great preparation to excel in school. In contrast, ECS students, like those at PPS magnets, are a bit self-selected since only parents who care enough about education to care have their kids get in. Thus there shouldn't be a big gap between magnet and ECS performance - but there is.