Largest Municipalities in Allegheny County in 2050 (Pittsburgh, Erie: law, design, oil)

[SlurmsMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

-I don't foresee Moon Township's growth rate continuing in perpetuity. The airport has been on a very slow (yet noticeable) death spiral for many years, and as it struggles to remain viable in the distant future, so will nearby businesses that rely upon the airport. If the airport can turn itself around, and if Robert Morris University expands rapidly, then I can foresee Moon Township growing at a good clip. My 2050 estimate would be around

I agree with most of your points but have to disagree with regards to Moon.

I think Robert Morris WILL continue to see steady growth and serve as an anchor for he western suburbs. Airport passenger service will probably continue to decline or stagnate, at least for the foreseeable future. But this shouldn't affect business airport traffic centered around local headquarters here, especially the ones that have relocated to the airport are such as Dicks Sporting Goods, along with the new Amazon distribution center. Other businesses based in the business parks in Robinson, North Fayette, and Moon will continue to offer good jobs.

On top all of this, Moon offers decent, dedicated bus service into town with the G3. I believe light rail will reach the airport in the next 30 years and benefit Moon immensely. Schools are very good and Moon Park is one of the best local parks in the area. There isn't the same sprawl and traffic in Moon that you see in other outer-ring suburbs due to the fact that most of the shopping/retail development is conveniently located outside of the township in Robinson and North Fayette. Sprawl and growth is also somewhat limited by the fact that Moon is hillier than some of it's other counterparts.

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Excellent idea for a thread! Thanks so much for starting it!

A few thoughts:

-I honestly have no idea what to expect for the city proper by 2050. I have a feeling rising rents in the East End will have successfully resulted in the improvement/gentrification of many other city neighborhoods. Average household size will probably continue to diminish, with the typical U.S. family having only one child per couple by then. International migration may slow here if China, India, and/or other nations' economies overtake the United States by 2050, which they may very well do.

-I'm going to peg my estimate for the city's 2050 population at 407,310. My estimate for the county will be 1,432,128. I pulled these numbers out of my derriere!

-Cranberry Township will overtake Penn Hills to become the second-largest municipality in the region, behind Pittsburgh, in 2050 (shudder!)

-Penn Hills will see its population decrease to around 39,600 by 2050.

-South Fayette Township is poised for rapid growth, given its above-average public school district, proximity to Southpointe, and convenience to the city. There's also still a ton of developable land there, and I think the new UPMC Children's Hospital, along with the Newbury Marketplace mixed-use community, will both serve as catalysts for additional growth (OkayDorothy will watch as her home value soars through the roof!) I'm going to estimate a population of around 25,000 by 2050.

-Mt. Lebanon will waffle around its current population for a while, given the fact that it is just about fully built-out and has no way to grow at this point other than throw razing existing structures and replacing them with denser infill. Ditto Bethel Park.

-By 2050 Wilkinsburg will be amazingly revitalized compared to its current state and will show modest population growth over the 2013 estimate as hundreds of new apartments are made available in the business district. I'm going to say it will house 18,000 people in 2050. Yes, I'm bullish on the long-term prospects of Wilkinsburg.

-I don't foresee Moon Township's growth rate continuing in perpetuity. The airport has been on a very slow (yet noticeable) death spiral for many years, and as it struggles to remain viable in the distant future, so will nearby businesses that rely upon the airport. If the airport can turn itself around, and if Robert Morris University expands rapidly, then I can foresee Moon Township growing at a good clip. My 2050 estimate would be around 29,800.

-The forecasted jump for Collier Township seems highly unlikely. I also don't think Jefferson Hills will grow that quickly.

-I'm not as negative towards Armstrong County as most, I suppose. Route 28's overhaul will be completed before we know it, and it will then be a breeze to commute from places like the RIDC Park in O'Hara Township up to South Buffalo Township in Southwestern Armstrong County, which is prime for large-scale low-density residential development for those who want to jump the county line to save on property taxes but don't want to live in a bland place like Cranberry Township, Cecil Township, or Peters Township. I don't want to see the same fate for South Buffalo Township, but it's certainly inevitable by 2050, and rapid population growth there will offset the natural decrease in the rest of the county.

Of all these forecasts, I think this one ^^ is the most accurate. Not saying it will be exactly the same, of course. No one knows sometimes what causes an area to become "hot" and mushroom.

I especially agree with the bold. While Collier Twp grew by a large percent, it only grew by some 450 people in three years, about 150 people a year. As a place gets larger, the rate of growth slows down, even if people still continue to move there.

[Hopes]

O'Hara and Indiana will continue to grow because they're in a good school district and has a lot of land for future development.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by armourereric

Am I missing something? I could not find Marshall Twp

Marshall Township
2012 Estimate - 7,031 (+116, +1.68%)
2012 Rank - 44th in county
2050 Extrapolation - 9,544 (+2,513)
2050 Rank - 34th in county

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by Hopes

O'Hara and Indiana will continue to grow because they're in a good school district and has a lot of land for future development.

Hopes, does O'hara really have that much more room for development? I know Indiana has tons of undeveloped land, but I thought O'hara was like 90-95% developed.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by Gnutella

Here are my approximations by 2020...


Allegheny County: +10,000

Butler County: +3,000

Washington County: +2,000

Beaver County: -1,000

Armstrong County: -3,000

Fayette County: -5,000

Westmoreland County: -7,000

MSA: -1,000


Here's my logic...

...

One major change I have from you: Allegheny county has already grown by nearly 6,000 people 2010-2012. So my estimate is going to be much higher than +10,000.

Here's my guess for each county:

Allegheny County: +20,000

Butler County: +3,500

Washington County: +2,000

Beaver County: -500

Armstrong County: -1,000

Fayette County: -8,000

Westmoreland County: -5,000

MSA: +11,000

[JoeP]

One major change I have from you: Allegheny county has already grown by nearly 6,000 people 2010-2012. So my estimate is going to be much higher than +10,000.

I hope so, but the net gains have decreased, if that trend continues, the next three years will see a gain well under the first three years.

These are interesting times as Pittsburgh's economy has changed, demographics are changing and the national economy has been in a strange place with the great recession. Trends going forward are hard to say for sure.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by JoeP

I hope so, but the net gains have decreased, if that trend continues, the next three years will see a gain well under the first three years.

These are interesting times as Pittsburgh's economy has changed, demographics are changing and the national economy has been in a strange place with the great recession. Trends going forward are hard to say for sure.

Those were for the first 2 years, not three. 2013 was not nearly as good of a year as 2012 or 2011, but 2014 has seemed to pick up some speed.

[lprmesia]

The only one I really disagree with is Robinson Township. I think the only challenge there is that while the demand for that area is high, it's already close to being landlocked. I can't see its population doubling given that at least 80-90% of the land is already developed.

I do agree with Moon growing to close to 40K though - there's the space for it and the demand for the area seems to be there. There's a lot of office space in the area and this seems to only be increasing with the new developments off Montour Run Rd, Ewing/Cherrington, and in nearby Findlay Twp (both off Industrial Drive and Clinton Rd).

[jea6321]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

-By 2050 Wilkinsburg will be amazingly revitalized compared to its current state and will show modest population growth over the 2013 estimate as hundreds of new apartments are made available in the business district. I'm going to say it will house 18,000 people in 2050. Yes, I'm bullish on the long-term prospects of Wilkinsburg.

the wilkinsburg millage rates need to be addressed before we see any serious turn around. I hope it is fixed in the near future, but I have serious doubts it happens in the next 10-15 years.