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Depending on who the Republican nominee is and who the third party nominee would be, if there were one, this could be the first election where a third party could win. Palin or Huckabee wont run as a third party, who ever the nominee will be, will be sufficiently right to get the nomination.
The conservatives are only about 30% of the electorate, and the tea party is a smaller portion still of that group--swing voters are what pushed the R's over the top in the recent election in races where they won. I think you had several different things going on last election cycle--the tea party was TICKED and wanted drastic changes to government, the R's wanted the tea party support so they played along to beat the Dems, and the swing voters wanted to send a message to Washington to fix the economy (throw the bums out). I think part of it was that none of the economic plans for the tea party/R's were spelled out in the last election--now that they're being forced to become more specific, it's creating some problems for them.
If the tea party creates a third party, they'll only include a portion of the traditional republican base--the other portion will vote R. If it's a far right candidate, they won't get swing voters. I don't see how they could win.
The conservatives are only about 30% of the electorate, and the tea party is a smaller portion still of that group--swing voters are what pushed the R's over the top in the recent election in races where they won. I think you had several different things going on last election cycle--the tea party was TICKED and wanted drastic changes to government, the R's wanted the tea party support so they played along to beat the Dems, and the swing voters wanted to send a message to Washington to fix the economy (throw the bums out). I think part of it was that none of the economic plans for the tea party/R's were spelled out in the last election--now that they're being forced to become more specific, it's creating some problems for them.
If the tea party creates a third party, they'll only include a portion of the traditional republican base--the other portion will vote R. If it's a far right candidate, they won't get swing voters. I don't see how they could win.
With all due respect, you are totally off base. The country as a whole is center right, as much as the left would like to think that the tea party is a far right fringe group it is not! It is made up of independents, fiscal and social conservatives alike, you can not have a massively historic election like the last one with out a lot of independents voting. So the bottom line is, say you get a weak middle of the road, establishment type republican as the GOP nominee,(I don't think that will happen) and you get a third party candidate that runs on the same issues that republicans won on this last election, they could pull it off. Remember Obama won because he had independents they are not going to make that mistake again.
I don't get what it is about the GOP and pandering to those farthest to the right. Even GOP hero Ronald Reagan is a moderate in comparison Sarah Palin and her crowd.
Because vocal idealogical minorities tend to have the motivation to vote in droves. If every eligible voter actually voted the tea party types would be making the "News of the Weird" section of newspapers instead of the front page.
And with Obama being a half black/half white Democratic president with the middle name Hussein, that tends to motivate a lot more lunatics on the right to come out of the woodwork. He is just too "foreign" for them.
With all due respect, you are totally off base. The country as a whole is center right, as much as the left would like to think that the tea party is a far right fringe group it is not! It is made up of independents, fiscal and social conservatives alike, you can not have a massively historic election like the last one with out a lot of independents voting. So the bottom line is, say you get a weak middle of the road, establishment type republican as the GOP nominee,(I don't think that will happen) and you get a third party candidate that runs on the same issues that republicans won on this last election, they could pull it off. Remember Obama won because he had independents they are not going to make that mistake again.
I don't know. I'd actually love to see some numbers of how much of the country is center-right or center-left (I imagine the bulk of the country is center-somewhere, but haven't seen numbers one way or another). Most of the centrists I know are not as verbose as the extremes on either side.
Anecdotally, I know quite a few moderate Republicans who agree with some Tea Party ideas in theory, but disagree with the extreme right components of the group that many Tea Party candidates have seemed to endorse and refuse to vote for TP candidates, even if that means they have to vote Democrat again (if a TP candidate got the GOP nomination; in my limited sample none of the moderate Republicans want to vote Democrat).
I'm just talking with my mouth here, but I actually wonder if they get a middle of the road Republican as the GOP nominee whether the independents who wanted to oust the current politicians in the last election would vote GOP, along with any disgruntled moderate Democrats, and the moderate Republicans, leaving just the TP folks to vote third party? I suppose what it actually comes down to are two things: 1) the position on issues that the GOP and TP candidates take (assuming the current administration takes its current position) and 2) the actual number of voters who comprise the moderate Republicans vs. more right Republicans.
I don't know. I'd actually love to see some numbers of how much of the country is center-right or center-left (I imagine the bulk of the country is center-somewhere, but haven't seen numbers one way or another). Most of the centrists I know are not as verbose as the extremes on either side.
Anecdotally, I know quite a few moderate Republicans who agree with some Tea Party ideas in theory, but disagree with the extreme right components of the group that many Tea Party candidates have seemed to endorse and refuse to vote for TP candidates, even if that means they have to vote Democrat again (if a TP candidate got the GOP nomination; in my limited sample none of the moderate Republicans want to vote Democrat).
I'm just talking with my mouth here, but I actually wonder if they get a middle of the road Republican as the GOP nominee whether the independents who wanted to oust the current politicians in the last election would vote GOP, along with any disgruntled moderate Democrats, and the moderate Republicans, leaving just the TP folks to vote third party? I suppose what it actually comes down to are two things: 1) the position on issues that the GOP and TP candidates take (assuming the current administration takes its current position) and 2) the actual number of voters who comprise the moderate Republicans vs. more right Republicans.
Just for the sake of argument lets take two guys that were elected to the senate last election, both I would say enjoy huge Tea Party support, you could say they are darlings of the Tea Party.......both beat moderate to liberal Republicans, I would challenge any one to demonstrate how they are extreme or radical to the point where the majority of Republicans and Independents could not vote for them. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. PS. For the record, I have stated dozens of times on this forum that we have a 2 party system and anyone not satisfied with the 2 should get involved in one and change it from within. I am very Libertarian but think the L party is wasting their time and energy.
Just for the sake of argument lets take two guys that were elected to the senate last election, both I would say enjoy huge Tea Party support, you could say they are darlings of the Tea Party.......both beat moderate to liberal Republicans, I would challenge any one to demonstrate how they are extreme or radical to the point where the majority of Republicans and Independents could not vote for them. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. PS. For the record, I have stated dozens of times on this forum that we have a 2 party system and anyone not satisfied with the 2 should get involved in one and change it from within. I am very Libertarian but think the L party is wasting their time and energy.
I fit the model you're talking about--I was a R for 30 years and wound up voting D for the first time partly because of Sarah Palin--I'm very much a moderate, and I think most people are. Here's where you're missing the point--you're looking at the world from a further right perspective, so moderates seem like liberals to you--you'd probably call me a liberal. The far right views the world from their point of perspective, but the rest of the country doesn't. Marco Rubio isn't a moderate--he's both a social and economic conservative. He's anti-Gay marriage & any form of gay rights, strongly pro-life/anti-abortion, against any kind of amnesty for illegal aliens, against stem cell research, has a B+ rating by the NRA, wants to cut SSI...the list goes on. Those aren't moderate positions. His economic positions are straight tea party--again--no where near moderate. I'm not even going to go into Rand Paul.
Again--there are lots of swing voters in this country who don't declare party affiliation--last time they were protesting the economy with their votes--it wasn't an endorsement of the tea party platform. It's historically happened in this country over and over when one party has control of both Congress and the Presidency--the voters just vote for CHANGE--not for a party and a candidate.
Do I think a third party will work for the tea party--absolutely not. Do I think some of them might break off--yes. I think the tea party has a fair number of zealots who aren't interested in compromise--certainly not with the Dem's, and not even with the neoconservative Republicans. They might be cutting off their nose to spite their face, but they'll do it. If that happens, the only way I could see the R's winning is if they ran an EXTREMELY moderate candidate who took all of the swing voters--both those who went D and R last time. Again--if the R's run a really conservative candidate, they'll turn off swing voters. If they run a moderate, they lose the TP. The fact that Obama is straddling the center line makes it even more difficult for them. I think the R's are between a rock and a hard place in two years.
you have to figure anyone that supports Palin isn't exactly firing on all cylinders anyway. To get them to do something for the party simply won't happen. Obama will appreciate their support. I'm feeling easy win for 2012.
Just for the sake of argument lets take two guys that were elected to the senate last election, both I would say enjoy huge Tea Party support, you could say they are darlings of the Tea Party.......both beat moderate to liberal Republicans, I would challenge any one to demonstrate how they are extreme or radical to the point where the majority of Republicans and Independents could not vote for them. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. PS. For the record, I have stated dozens of times on this forum that we have a 2 party system and anyone not satisfied with the 2 should get involved in one and change it from within. I am very Libertarian but think the L party is wasting their time and energy.
Are you a social conservative or a real Libertarian? The R party will never drop the religious crazies and therefore will never, ever be a true Libertarian Party. If you are anti-abortion, then you are not Libertarian, in my opinion. If you are anti gay marriage, or even worse, support a constitutional amendment banning it, then you are not a Libertarian. Social/religious conservatism is anathema to a true Libertarian. But go ahead, good luck with that.
Here's what I'm guessing at this point. Huckabee won't go third party. Michelle Bachmann might. She can raise money with the best of them and she doesn't seem to have a sense of her own limitations. If Bachmann heads off into unknown territory, Palin may go with her. They both have huge egos...
Repub voters will NEVER go third party. Especially if it means that Obama would be re-elected.
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