The "Record Breaking Heat Wave" That wasn't - According to NOAA (website, articles)

[Nomander]

Originally Posted by DC at the Ridge

They are record high temperatures recorded in July for the referenced state. They only go back to 2000, because you have to load each year/state individually. Hence, I COMPILED the information manually. It's time-consuming, and frankly, since I'm not making an argument regarding global warming, but only that this year's heatwave is exceptional, I don't have any reason to go back a hundred years. The number of records broken this year compared to the past eleven years establishes what I've been arguing throughout this thread: The 2011 heatwave that has been centered in Oklahoma for the entire month of July is both exceptional in terms of its longevity and its intensity. The argument of the OP that it's just normal weather has been debunked.

Yet if you only evaluate from 2000 on, then you are manufacturing your position of it being "exceptional" which is the entire point. I mean, really, do you think an 11 year record is any measure of anything? What about the heat waves of the 80's, and 90's, as well as the 20's, 30's and 40's? To omit those in this evaluation would be rather convienent to your point don't you think? If you look at the records back, you will see the majority of the "record highs" are that of those years and it places the proper perspective of the issue in its context. That is to say, while it is a warm year, it is by no means "unprecedented" nor "exceptional" and that IS the entire issue of this discussion.

[Nomander]

Originally Posted by nightbird47

Here the difference is what we get in August started in June. The wildflowers never came up this year. The lawn has been brown and hardly growing since June. Yes, in August this is normal. In June it sure isn't. The state has been issuing health warnings since then telling people to stay out of the heat as it's dangerous and the longer it lasts the potential damage escalades.

Landscapers are offering really really good deals since so much work had dropped off or never happened. Some of the cities here are rationing outside watering or have bannned it entirely. With the heat in June we never got the normal rainfall and the area already was in drought.

AC companies are having trouble taking care of all the business they have. At this point it can snow more than normal this winter if it wants to. I can put on lots of warmies but its going to take time to get used to the lack of ac woosh from the two window units.

That is all well and good, but without a proper relational perspective to historical occurrence, all that is being done is positing anecdotal evaluation to which has no grounds.

[Nomander]

Originally Posted by coastalgirl

This thread is confusing me. Records are being broken, right? Doesn't that, by the very definition, make it a record-breaking heat wave? Even the link that that was posted to refute records being broken shows records being broken.

What am I missing?

Records get broken all the time in some form or another, especially in any specific occurrence such as a heat wave, or cold season. The issue is not that there are records broken, rather it is the position by those using those records to suggest a "record breaking event" there is a difference between an event that has some records broken and a record breaking event.

For instance, 1980 in Texas was a record breaking event and it was a significant heat wave as an entire occurrence. We have had some records here and there in this one, but it is nowhere near a "record breaking event".

The issue is the intent of its classification. One implies an event normal in the occurence of our climate and the other attempts to imply that the occurrence itself is abnormal entirely. That is what is misleading and it is the objection by many because to imply such is to build support for an overall position concerning climate itself (using it to claim AGW).

[DC at the Ridge]

Originally Posted by Nomander

Yet if you only evaluate from 2000 on, then you are manufacturing your position of it being "exceptional" which is the entire point. I mean, really, do you think an 11 year record is any measure of anything? What about the heat waves of the 80's, and 90's, as well as the 20's, 30's and 40's? To omit those in this evaluation would be rather convienent to your point don't you think? If you look at the records back, you will see the majority of the "record highs" are that of those years and it places the proper perspective of the issue in its context. That is to say, while it is a warm year, it is by no means "unprecedented" nor "exceptional" and that IS the entire issue of this discussion.

Read the title of the thread.

The topic is whether this heatwave is breaking records.

[Nomander]

Originally Posted by Ecovlke

"Unprecedented" means it hasn't happened before. I guess I missed where anyone posted that on here. Can you name the post?

As for the heat dome, or the 'blocking high' as your prefer to call it. Oklahoma, with one of the top schools of meteorology and some of the best meteorologists in the nation have been using the term 'heat dome'. This heat dome, or high pressure ridge, is unusual because of the size it has engulfed, and the persistence.

"Heat Index' or the measure of humidity was never an issue until rush limbaugh began foaming at the mouth that 'heat index' was a government conspiricacy. since then the rush-robo-bots came on here have did silly things like say, "stupid heat index", or they claim it's bogus and there's little difference in a dry heat and humid heat (for the anal retentive that is paraphrased) . Now you've made the claim that the heat index has been manipulated. (one of your oft used words) Care to explain?

Who gets their information from Rush? I haven't listened to a show of his for over 10 years, so please stop making accusations of debate and attack in order to avoid dealing with the issues being discussed. Its political and pointless as so far I think the only people bringing up "Rush" is you and others arguing your position. It is fallacious, and I would kindly ask that you stick to the facts and leave the banter at the door.

While a certain event within such may be abnormal in terms of consistency of occurrence, it is often simply a natural variability issue that may produce such an occurrence (much like was found with Russia's stagnate blocking high). That may make that specific occurrence abnormal in the variability of the climate, but the occurrence of such is not unprecedented as is shown when we evaluate occurrences in the past such as the 20's, 30's, 40's, 80's and 90's.

This is the problem here. People are selectively choosing records that show the occurrence to be significant according to the periods of their evaluation, but to do so is misleading.

[Nomander]

Originally Posted by DC at the Ridge

Read the title of the thread.

The topic is whether this heatwave is breaking records.

Correction, the topic is "Record breaking Heat Wave", not a heat wave that is breaking "some" records.

I know your point, I have explained to you I understand it. You however have refused to accept my point and continue to obtusely argue yours over and over.

We know there are records being broken, but records being broken do not equate to a record breaking event as a whole. So please stop arguing over silly semantics that have no point or meaning.

Your point is irrelevant and has no meaning in the actual discussion being presented here.

The issue is not records broken, but the records being significant to historical records to which would imply this event is unprecedented, abnormal in historical occurrence.

[Ecovlke]

"We know there are records being broken, but records being broken do not equate to a record breaking event as a whole....."

Which event? Is this one of the days where we passed a high temp for that particular day? Or maybe it is for the average for the month of June. Or maybe it is for the highest low for a particular day? And where are you referring? Everything that has been beneath the heat dome? or the entire U.S. And when? The high pressure ridge spread to the east coast last week, but relief came quickly and it broke. It's been over OK, and parts of AR, KS, TX since early June. It's also been in the high plains, but for how long?

How is someone to answer a question if the question isn't well refined.

This thread is about the heat wave. It was started with a reference to the 'stupid heat index' (laughingly a few days post the limpbaugh blather) and from the first post it appears it's suppose to dispell that this summer is any different or any hotter than any other. Well, where? When, why?

Just how are you defining event?

"record breaking heat wave" We've broken records so yes, it has been so far and we're not even to August. In my region we've tied the record for the hottest June ever recorded. Fact. And if you want a reference go back through the multiple posts on this thread and do your homework. the references have been posted.

[Nomander]

Originally Posted by Ecovlke

"We know there are records being broken, but records being broken do not equate to a record breaking event as a whole....."

Which event? Is this one of the days where we passed a high temp for that particular day? Or maybe it is for the average for the month of June. Or maybe it is for the highest low for a particular day? And where are you referring? Everything that has been beneath the heat dome? or the entire U.S. And when? The high pressure ridge spread to the east coast last week, but relief came quickly and it broke. It's been over OK, and parts of AR, KS, TX since early June. It's also been in the high plains, but for how long?

How is someone to answer a question if the question isn't well refined.

This thread is about the heat wave. It was started with a reference to the 'stupid heat index' (laughingly a few days post the limpbaugh blather) and from the first post it appears it's suppose to dispell that this summer is any different or any hotter than any other. Well, where? When, why?

Just how are you defining event?

"record breaking heat wave" We've broken records so yes, it has been so far and we're not even to August. In my region we've tied the record for the hottest June ever recorded. Fact. And if you want a reference go back through the multiple posts on this thread and do your homework. the references have been posted.

Now you are getting to the issue. How do we define the event? It depends on what you are looking to answer and that also is contingent on the data you are evaluating. As I was discussing with DC, the issue of picking a small subset of records to compare is pointless and means nothing. Even the issue of a single warm month, even record breaking is not a significant measure of the season or year. If you note, 2010 had only a couple of months which were quite hot, with the rest being average or below, but the overall data showed it to be not significant in its seasonal occurrence and was established as a natural variability factor.

The problem I have in this overall discussion is the attempt to suggest a micro occurrence as being an indicator of a macro conclusion.


There is a lot of misinformation going on out there, some based on ignorance, some intended to be so. Concerning the heat index issue, some news stations have been inappropriately applying it to suggest a conclusion to which its manner of use does not support (I have seen this personally on a couple of networks here). Heat index can not be used as an evaluating factor of temperatures as it concerns the temperature record itself. They are segregated influences to which operate under different factors and meanings. So when the news reports a temp value, focusing on the heat index as if it were a temperature high, it is misleading.

Now we can speculate all day long about this occurrence and its significance, but the fact remains, until the data is fully evaluated and a comparative analysis is done after the year is over, the preliminary data is dangerously approaching the position of sensationalism, much like it has happened with previous years and occurrences to which later, after proper review, the speculative conclusions made concerning the data was found to be well off its mark.

So, what am I saying about this issue?

I am saying, so far based on what we have seen and the historical records, the occurrence while warm in many places, and some records for specific regions might be significant, the occurrence of this heat is not unprecedented, nor abnormal in its occurrence. Now that is based on looking at the historical data of the overall records of the station data. Am I correct? Well, we will have to wait and see how the rest of the year goes and look at all of the data when it is available and proper analysis can be done.

Until then, trying to build a case past "it has been warm and some records have been broken in some regions", is simply trying to promote an agenda.

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by Nomander

The problem I have in this overall discussion is the attempt to suggest a micro occurrence as being an indicator of a macro conclusion.

Actually, it seems to me the OP was attempting to "prove" that this heat wave isn't really a heat wave, which any sane person with access to a regular TV with over-the-air service knows is untrue. Whether this is a record-breaking heat wave or not, it's a heat wave nonetheless.

[DC at the Ridge]

Originally Posted by DC at the Ridge

Here's OK since 2000:

2000: 2 records broken, 7 records met
2001: 35 records broken, 30 records met
2002: 1 record broken, 1 record met
2003: 1 record broken, 1 record met
2004: 0 records broken
2005: 0 records broken
2006: 36 records broken, 43 records met
2007: 0 records broken
2008: 1 record broken, 2 records met
2009: 31 records broken, 22 records met
2010: 0 records broken
2011: SO FAR 84 records broken, 51 records met

Tell me, is there an anomalous year in that historical set?

the 1930's---since some people have insisted they are significant

1930: 4 records broken, 11 records met
1931: 6 records broken, 3 records met
1932: 0 records broken
1933: 69 records broken, 19 records met
1934: 146 records broken, 53 records met
1935: 10 records broken, 9 records met
1936: 174 records broken, 49 records met
1937: 9 records broken, 20 records met
1938: 1 record broken, 3 records met
1939: 56 records broken, 28 records met

the 1940's

1940: 8 records broken, 4 records met
1941: 0 records broken, 1 record met
1942: 0 records broken
1943: 57 records broken, 20 records met
1944: 5 records broken, 4 records met
1945: 1 record broken, 1 record met
1946: 20 records broken, 20 records met
1947: 23 records broken, 16 records met
1948: 0 records broken, 1 record met
1949: 4 records broken, 0 records met

the 1950's

1950: 0 records broken
1951: 11 records broken, 3 records met
1952: 15 records broken, 11 records met
1953: 50 records broken, 17 records met
1954--this is a huge one: 356 records broken, 127 records met
1955: 1 record broken, 5 records met
1956: 29 records broken, 24 records met
1957: 25 records broken, 25 records met
1958: 1 record broken, 1 record met
1959: 0 records broken

the 1960's

1960: 8 records broken, 1 record met
1961: 1 record broken, 0 records met
1962: 4 records broken, 2 records met
1963: 26 records broken, 35 records met
1964: 87 records broken, 68 records met
1965: 0 records broken, 5 records met
1966: 10 records broken, 7 records met
1967: 1 record broken, 3 records met
1968: 1 record broken, 1 record met
1969: 16 records broken, 22 records met

the 1970's

1970: 71 records broken, 37 records met
1971: 33 records broken, 29 records met
1972: 2 records broken, 1 record met
1973: 2 records broken, 1 record met
1974: 76 records broken, 51 records met
1975: 1 record broken, 0 records met
1976: 0 records broken, 1 record met
1977: 27 records broken, 17 records met
1978: 81 records broken, 61 records met
1979: 1 record broken, 142 records met

the 1980's

1980: another big one---252 records broken, 129 records met
1981: 59 records broken, 33 records met
1982: 0 records broken, 1 record met
1983: 6 records broken, 19 records met
1984: 12 records broken, 8 records met
1985: 1 record broken, 1 record met
1986: 166 records broken, 64 records met
1987: 0 records broken, 1 record met
1988: 2 records broken, 1 record met
1989: 5 records broken, 0 records met

the 1990's

1990: 12 records broken, 20 records met
1991: 1 record broken, 3 records met
1992: 3 records broken, 3 records met
1993: 1 record broken, 5 records met
1994: 3 records broken, 7 records met
1995: 8 records broken, 15 records met
1996: 154 records broken, 39 records met
1997: 5 records broken, 8 records met
1998: 110 records broken, 52 records met
1999: 3 records broken, 3 records met

With roughly a week to go, July 2011 ranks 8th in terms of breaking records. It should also be pointed out, these are RECORDS. So everytime a records is set, it gets harder and hotter to break it.