Categorical predictions as a form of magical thinking. (legal, Obama, claim)

[wutitiz]

I've noticed recently how many people love to make categorical predictions about political outcomes. It happens on both sides. I don't know how many times I've seen/heard people say "Obama is toast," "Obama is one & done" etc. But I notice it even more often on the left.

I just saw a comment in my local paper that proclaimed:

Originally Posted by al ghalib

November 8, 2011 at 9:34 PM

In 2012 the republicans are going to learn that 2010 was a nothing more than a dead cat bounce for them. Its gonna be ugly!

I've seen numerous posts on this forum that 'the GOP will never allow a black to be nominated' and 'Herman Cain is finished,' and various other purportedly iron-clad assertions. Always said with a tone of 'aren't I brilliant?'

No, you're not. Unless you back up your prediction with solid reasons, novel insights, or maybe some polling data, you're just engaging in magical thinking. Anyone can make up a prediction. Obviously, no one's going to dig up your message board post a year from now when it turns out to be wrong. You're trying to convince us that you have some secret, inner knowledge, but you're projecting the opposite impression. You're too dumb or ill-informed to come up with an actual point so you make s**t up, and plant it far enough in the future so that nobody can possibly prove you wrong (yet).

Sorry for the rant but this is my new pet peeve.

[filihok]

Originally Posted by wutitiz

I've noticed recently how many people love to make categorical predictions about political outcomes. It happens on both sides. I don't know how many times I've seen/heard people say "Obama is toast," "Obama is one & done" etc. But I notice it even more often on the left.

I just saw a comment in my local paper that proclaimed:



I've seen numerous posts on this forum that 'the GOP will never allow a black to be nominated' and 'Herman Cain is finished,' and various other purportedly iron-clad assertions. Always said with a tone of 'aren't I brilliant?'

No, you're not. Unless you back up your prediction with solid reasons, novel insights, or maybe some polling data, you're just engaging in magical thinking. Anyone can make up a prediction. Obviously, no one's going to dig up your message board post a year from now when it turns out to be wrong. You're trying to convince us that you have some secret, inner knowledge, but you're projecting the opposite impression. You're too dumb or ill-informed to come up with an actual point so you make s**t up, and plant it far enough in the future so that nobody can possibly prove you wrong (yet).

Sorry for the rant but this is my new pet peeve.

You're expecting a populace in which 90% believe there is a magical man in the sky who loves them and will reward them with eternal happiness to use reason?

[legalsea]

I think it a very good pet peeve.

Indeed, I predicted you would say this several years ago. Pity I have lost the link. Anyway, I predicted it.

[wutitiz]

Originally Posted by legalsea

I think it a very good pet peeve.

Indeed, I predicted you would say this several years ago. Pity I have lost the link. Anyway, I predicted it.

Don't GET ME STARTED ON DRY WIT. haha, just kidding..that one made me crack up.