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"Going back to 1956 no incumbent president has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to the election.
In November 1982, the economy was in the last month of a deep recession, and unemployment was 10.8 percent, the highest since the Great Depression. A year later, unemployment was down to 8.5 percent. By November 1984, it was still a relatively high 7.2 percent, but the downward trend was unmistakable. Reagan was re-elected that month in a 59-41 percent landslide.
Those precedents bode well for Obama. Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010, two years before voters decide whether Obama gets to stay in the White House. It was down to 8.7 percent in November 2011, a year before the vote. It fell to 8.5 percent in December and is expected to fall further by Election Day."
In elections, jobless trend matters more than rate - National Business - MiamiHerald.com (http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/01/07/2578018/falling-unemployment-lifts-election.html - broken link)
More good news for The President and the American people.
"Going back to 1956 no incumbent president has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to the election.
In November 1982, the economy was in the last month of a deep recession, and unemployment was 10.8 percent, the highest since the Great Depression. A year later, unemployment was down to 8.5 percent. By November 1984, it was still a relatively high 7.2 percent, but the downward trend was unmistakable. Reagan was re-elected that month in a 59-41 percent landslide.
Those precedents bode well for Obama. Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010, two years before voters decide whether Obama gets to stay in the White House. It was down to 8.7 percent in November 2011, a year before the vote. It fell to 8.5 percent in December and is expected to fall further by Election Day."
In elections, jobless trend matters more than rate - National Business - MiamiHerald.com (http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/01/07/2578018/falling-unemployment-lifts-election.html - broken link)
More good news for The President and the American people.
So many words, so much air...
1) Reagan was reelected because of a variety of reasons, unemployment being just one.
2) Trends are important but the the recession of the 1980s is nowhere near the gloom and doom that engulfs America in 2012. It was bad for many, but unlike today, 1980s was still viewed as temporary. In 1980s the US still had much of its industry and the national deficit was also different.
3) Obama may be reelected simply because republicans cannot bring a worthy opponent. Life sometimes is like that.
They are going to need .5% drops every quarter from here until election day for people to start changing their minds. It simply isn't going to happen most likely.
If President Obama wins re-election, it says more about the Republican party then it does anything else.
I always find it interesting that when numbers/trends don't add up to support what conservatives hope for, they claim they're meaningless. They've spent the last 2 years claiming that Obama can't win with an unemployment rate above ____. Now that things are improving, and the current trend supports his likelyhood of reelection, magically trends don't matter. Got to love conservatives and their hypocricy.
I always find it interesting that when numbers/trends don't add up to support what conservatives hope for, they claim they're meaningless. They've spent the last 2 years claiming that Obama can't win with an unemployment rate above ____. Now that things are improving, and the current trend supports his likelyhood of reelection, magically trends don't matter. Got to love conservatives and their hypocricy.
There are two running reasons Republicans are pushing to secure votes.
1. The economy is bad, and its the Presidents fault
or
2. The President is assaulting our freedom, and forcing socialism on us.
Notice neither has anything to really do with cutting spending. Republicans want to cut social programs, but will increase spending in other areas, like the military at the same time.
Absolutely. Voters care more about the rate of change in unemployment than the actual unemployment.
I have been saying this for awhile (not here, obviously). If the unemployment rate drops below 7%, then Obama will be a shoe in. Heck, even if it drops below 8%, it will help him and make it more difficult for a Republican to win the Oval Office.
However, if the UE rate starts to climb, then Obama will have a much tougher challenge keeping his job.
There are two running reasons Republicans are pushing to secure votes.
1. The economy is bad, and its the Presidents fault
or
2. The President is assaulting our freedom, and forcing socialism on us.
Notice neither has anything to really do with cutting spending. Republicans want to cut social programs, but will increase spending in other areas, like the military at the same time.
That's the reason they have to ignore the current trend. With the jobless rate falling, all they're left with are social issues and there will never be enough social conservative votes to win a Presidential election.
I always find it interesting that when numbers/trends don't add up to support what conservatives hope for, they claim they're meaningless. They've spent the last 2 years claiming that Obama can't win with an unemployment rate above ____. Now that things are improving, and the current trend supports his likelyhood of reelection, magically trends don't matter. Got to love conservatives and their hypocricy.
And when numbers don't add up for the dems....they resort to stuff like this....trends....
You pick 2 trends in how many years...and we are supposed to do what with them?
That's the reason they have to ignore the current trend. With the jobless rate falling, all they're left with are social issues and there will never be enough social conservative votes to win a Presidential election.
What would be nice, is if the WH would report true numbers, not what they want....
Lets add in the number of people who have just stopped looking for a job, what about the people who are end the end of those 99 weeks?
Oh, that's right they just stop counting them...........
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