Predictions for the outcome of the Supreme Court w/r/t DOMA... (Congress, illegal)
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It’s also possible, of course, that the Supreme Court decision could somehow kick-start public support for same-sex marriage, causing it to accelerate faster, or that the recent spate of Democratic and Republican politicians coming out in favor of it could do so. But one no longer needs to make optimistic assumptions to conclude that same-sex marriage supporters will probably soon constitute a national majority. Instead, it’s the steadiness of the trend that makes same-sex marriage virtually unique among all major public policy issues, and which might give its supporters more confidence that the numbers will continue to break their way regardless of what the Supreme Court decides.
IMHO, both DOMA and Prop 8 are very clearly unconstitutional. I think they will for sure strike them both down one way or another.
As for DOMA, I think they'll just strike it down outright.
The Prop 8 ruling will be more tricky in the sense that it depends on how far they will go. To clarify, it depends on whether they will let the ruling only apply to California or whether they will declare that all bans on same-sex marriage are unconstitutional (which would essentially make it legal all over the country).
I really, really hope the latter one will prevail, but that might be a bit too optimistic.
Same-sex marriage should absolutely be legal in this country. To quote myself from another post:
1) It's the right thing to do. Both morally and also because it's not constitutional for same-sex marriage to be illegal anyways.
2) It would just make the inevitable happen now.
3) We could put this issue behind us and out of the political spectrum.
And
4) It would be so much fun to watch all the hard-core right wing nutjobs' heads explode simultaneously (especially here on C-D).
Are you saying that because one is an outright denial of allowing X group to have access to Y benefits, whereas the other is merely a "recognition?"
Article IV of the constitution says:Full Faith and Credit shall be given in each State to the public Acts, Records, and judicial Proceedings of every other State. And the Congress may by general Laws prescribe the Manner in which such Acts, Records and Proceedings shall be proved, and the Effect thereof.
It says that congress may regulate the manner in which those things shall be proved and the effect thereof, but it does not say congress may nullify them. So if you are married in one state and then move to another state, then the new state may subject you to whatever their particular laws are regarding marriage. But they may not simply declare that you aren't married.
Recognition in this case isn't "merely recognition" it is a contract. It's a contract that you can't break just by moving across state lines. DOMA should be struck down.
Why would they do that? DOMA is clearly unconstitutional.
If it was that clear, would it be in the Supreme Court right now? I think they'll uphold DOMA, and send Prop 8 back to the state.
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