In an initial poll, the African National Congress's vote is expected to drop to 56.2% from 65.9% (in 2009) of the vote in the 2014 elections. The ANC is the liberation party of Nelson Mandela that was at the forefront of the fight against apartheid. However, they've been in power for 20 years and are losing support at a rather moderate pace.
Sharp fall for ANC expected in 2014 elections | Politics | BDlive
The main opposition's share of the vote, the Democratic Alliance, is projected to take 27% of the vote in this poll, up from 16% in 2009's national elections. They actually were able to get 25% of the vote in the municipal election of 2009/2010 (not sure which year) so 27% doesn't appear to be totally unreasonable. I did more digging and the DA has established a goal of 30% of the vote. The Democratic Alliance is very similar to a centrist Western political party, it's structured, funded, and lead as such. While the DA isn't racist, draws a diverse following of whites, blacks, coloureds (that is what mixed race people are called in SA) and asians, and is also led by a former (and white) anti-apartheid activist, it is still seen as the party of middle and upper class whites.
My prediction:
ANC: 58%. Not as bad as the projection, but they still get hammered and fall below 60% for the first time
DA: 31%. The DA vastly exceeds expectations, some of it from ANC defectors, but they will mostly draw from smaller parties who will get snuffed out. I think the DA is going to tap into those who are dissatisfied and have already left the ANC which will propel them upward as they will show that they are the only real alternative to unseating the ANC. It should be easy to get people who have left the ANC for smaller parties.
One observation though, I think the ANC has a floor of 53% or so, and don't see them losing a simple majority ever.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
