Gas Prices Rise Again, Move Closer to $4 - Thank You Obama (prison, work)

[patroll]

ok thank you weltschmerz

woman's lib

was a reference to all the stuff we are messing with in Iraq

the way we are trying to change there ways to ours

even if they accept some i dont think its right to mess with other cultures and ways


end of first ?

mind farts im adhd and other crap on 20 meds or so so i forget or say it wrong or it comes out wrong

i try to watch and think before typing but it still dont always come out right

ok next ?

i caught a glimpse of the news and they said they were thinking of sending more troops back over there

thats what i heard i try not to watch news to much crap about this country going to hell


we would not want a country to come do that to us

ok i hope that helps

most of all its just i support our troops just not the reasons or something were not supposed to bash on here

thanks for your respect and for asking

if there's any more or any other posts just ask im happy to try like this to help anyone

again thanks for being respectful about it i hope i returned that

thanks have a good one (holy crap i was typing on page 46 and it suddenly went to 48 man i must type slow)

[LordBalfor]

Originally Posted by pknopp

Nice cherry picking. A year before it was in the $50's.

Sure, it had a big boost to begin with - because of PSYCHOLOGICAL REASONS (simply because people BELIEVED it would jack up commodity prices). But QE has continued for FOUR YEARS since then, and there's be virtually no gain whatsoever. If there was a REAL - non-psychological - reason for QE pumping up commodity prices (in other words if it really WAS "freeing up money to go into commodities" then commodity prices wouldn't have been FLAT for the last years.


That "belief" that QE would pump up commodity prices has largely faded - with the result that the initial surge in commodity prices simply stopped nearly 4 years ago now.

Ken

[pknopp]

Originally Posted by LordBalfor

Sure, it had a big boost to begin with - because of PSYCHOLOGICAL REASONS (simply because people BELIEVED it would jack up commodity prices).

It did jack up prices.

[LordBalfor]

Originally Posted by pknopp

It did jack up prices.

MAYBE - or maybe not. There's no way to prove that one way or the other. Correlation does not necessarily mean CAUSATION. What we DO KNOW however is that whatever correlation there MAY have been, it's not been very strong nor very long-lasting because QE has continued for YEARS since that brief correlation and commodity prices have essentially remained flat (actually they are DOWN from their peak in May of 2011). That period of time where QE has continued but commodity prices have been flat (or moving downward) is far longer than the period of time where QE was in effect and commodity prices were rising. That doesn't make a very good case that QE pumps up commodity prices.

Ken

[weltschmerz]

Originally Posted by patroll

ok thank you weltschmerz

woman's lib

was a reference to all the stuff we are messing with in Iraq

the way we are trying to change there ways to ours

even if they accept some i dont think its right to mess with other cultures and ways


end of first ?

mind farts im adhd and other crap on 20 meds or so so i forget or say it wrong or it comes out wrong

i try to watch and think before typing but it still dont always come out right

ok next ?

i caught a glimpse of the news and they said they were thinking of sending more troops back over there

thats what i heard i try not to watch news to much crap about this country going to hell


we would not want a country to come do that to us

ok i hope that helps

most of all its just i support our troops just not the reasons or something were not supposed to bash on here

thanks for your respect and for asking

if there's any more or any other posts just ask im happy to try like this to help anyone

again thanks for being respectful about it i hope i returned that

thanks have a good one (holy crap i was typing on page 46 and it suddenly went to 48 man i must type slow)

Thank you. It does help.

[pknopp]

Originally Posted by LordBalfor

MAYBE - or maybe not. There's no way to prove that one way or the other. Correlation does not necessarily mean CAUSATION. What we DO KNOW however is that whatever correlation there MAY have been, it's not been very strong nor very long-lasting because QE has continued for YEARS since that brief correlation and commodity prices have essentially remained flat (actually they are DOWN from their peak in May of 2011). That period of time where QE has continued but commodity prices have been flat (or moving downward) is far longer than the period of time where QE was in effect and commodity prices were rising. That doesn't make a very good case that QE pumps up commodity prices.

Ken

If QE did nothing we should have ended it years ago.

[GregW]

Politicians have no control over retail gasoline or diesel prices. Prices are set by the world wide petroleum cartel to maximize their profits without seriously reducing demand. Domestically oil companies use "zip code" data to set prices to obtain the same results. There is no real competition in this industry from the bottom to the top. These companies demonstrate the effectiveness of collusion and cooperation over competition. They are very good at colluding, legal or not, to maximize profits.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by GregW

Politicians have no control over retail gasoline or diesel prices.

Yes, they do.

Regulations create Cost-Push Inflation which drives up the prices. Politicians have actually created a vicious feed-back cycle. The Politicians created regulations that corn be used for ethanol to be put in gasoline.

That artificially inflated the price of gasoline....that is a fact.

You have a drought causing shortages of corn harvests, resulting in Demand-Pull Inflation which drives up the price of corn, driving up the price of ethanol, driving up the price of gasoline.

Simultaneously, pulling corn off the market for use in ethanol created a shortage of corn for the food supply, driving up food prices. This is now exasperated by your drought, which drives up food prices even more.

Then regulations such as EPA Tier 3 restrict the types of oils you can use to produce gasoline (and also diesel).

Fracked Oil with 65,000 ppm Sulfur versus West Texas Intermediate with 1,200 ppm Sulfur.

You have to reduce that to 15 ppm for domestic use in gasoline.

Fracked Oil: 6-8 gallons of gasoline per barrel
West Texas Intermediate: 19 gallons of gasoline per barrel

Using Fracked Oil reduces the Gasoline Supply driving up the price of gasoline.

Federal law signed by Republican Gerald Ford makes it illegal to export oil from the US (excluding Alaskan North Slope and a small percentage of California Heavy).

All the oil you pump has to be refined before being exported.

Margin on gasoline refined from Fracked Oil no Sulfur Redux: $17 per barrel*
Margin on gasoline refined from Fracked Oil with Sulfur Redux reduding 65,000 ppm to 15 ppm: $3 per barrel.

What's an independent refinery like Valero or Tesoro to do?

Export the finished motor gasoline with 65,000 ppm for higher profit --- which reduces gasoline supply and increases prices.


See how that works?

* Not real: easy numbers for illustration

Originally Posted by GregW

Prices are set by the world wide petroleum cartel to maximize their profits without seriously reducing demand.

Obviously you have confused gasoline and crude oil.....they are not the same thing.

Originally Posted by GregW

Domestically oil companies use "zip code" data to set prices to obtain the same results. There is no real competition in this industry from the bottom to the top.

That isn't true at all.

The majority of your refineries are independently owned by non-oil companies.

An example of a non-oil company would be Valero.

Valero has no oil reserves. Valero does not own oil fields. Valero does not have interest in oil fields. Valero conducts no exploration for oil (or natural gas) reserves.

Valero -- like Tesoro and the other independent refineries -- buys oil on the open market and refines it.

Of those refineries that are not independently owned and operated, the majority are foreign owned: Citgo, Royal Dutch Shell, Hess, Total SA, British Petroleum etc etc etc.


Also, to completely debunk your argument, there are petro-chemicals in oil far more valuable than gasoline.

For example, Neodol-25 -- an organic alcohol -- sells for $19/kg.

Two gallons of gasoline is what, maybe $7-$8?

Gasoline is not going to save your life, or extend your life, or lower your cholesterol to prevent a heart attack or debilitating stroke or prevent your liver from being damaged, or help your body accept a new organ through transplant...

....but Neodol will.

Medically petro-chemically....

Mircea

[Ponderosa]

Oil prices are falling rapidly and gas will soon as well. Obama is lowering them in an attempt to improve his image with the immigration fiasco raging.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by LordBalfor

A recession is 2 or more quarters with a negative GDP Growth Rate. Nothing the BLS did changes that.

BLS doesn't track recessions.

For those tired of lordly nonsense, the method of calculating GDP for the US economy changed July 1, 2014

This new method of calculating GDP artificially inflates the GDP, making it appear higher than it really is.


Real Example:

10994.3 Old 4Q 2004
12563.8 New 4Q 2004

Artificially inflated by: 14%

11096.2 Old 1Q 2005
12816.2 New 1Q 2005

Artificially inflated by: 15.5%

See the difference?

Actually, differences (plural)

10994.3 Old 4Q 2004
11096.2 Old 1Q 2005
--------
0.93% Change


12563.8 New 4Q 2004
12816.2 New 1Q 2005
--------
2.00% Change

The new method of calculating GDP has resulted in an artificial increase of

2.00%
0.93%
-----
1.07% for the 4Q 2004 - 1Q 2005 growth rate.

However, as I have said repeatedly, the change in GDP growth rate is inflated by 1.0% - 4.0% (or perhaps a little more -- although we haven't seen that yet).


So here's what we do......

Government reports a GDP growth rate of 0.7%

The new method of calculate artificially inflates GDP, but not at a uniform rate (as was demonstrated).

To estimate GDP growth under the old method, we take 0.7% and we subtract 1%-4% and that gives us a ball-park estimate.

0.7%
1.0% less
-----
-0.3%

0.7%
4.0% less
-----
-3.3%

Now we understand that GDP did not actually grow, rather your economy contracted -0.3% to -3.3%.

What if the government reports GDP growth rate of 2.4%?

2.4%
1.0% less
-----
0.6%

2.4%
4.0% less
----
-1.6%

That means your GDP only increased by 0.6% or perhaps contracted as much as -1.6%.


I hope we got that straightened out.

Originally Posted by LordBalfor

The government does more than simply report the average UE Rate for all 50 states. It also reports a separate UE rate for EACH state:

Unemployment Rates for States

Ken

Yeah?

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 288,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains were widespread, led by employment growth in professional and business services, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and health care.

Where?

The focus --- very obviously -- is not on other States and BLS doesn't even mention other States in its Employment Situation Summary.


10 States -- 20% -- have UE Rates of 7.0% to 8.2%.

A UE Rate of 2.6% by one State won't skew the data.....not.

Originally Posted by pknopp

No but it increases the funds to invest in the commodities.

Your claim is easily refuted here.....





That money is not going anywhere.


Are wages/salaries increasing?

No......and that is proof of no Real Inflation (or the rate is so low as to be negligible).

Since so many people on this form are English-language-challenged, what I can do to get you people to understand the definition of "everything?"

Everything means everything as in every thing as in every single thing as in every single goddam freaking thing in the United States.

What is so hard to understand?

Suppose government monetary policies cause an annual rate of 9% Real Inflation.

What happens to your wages? They go up 9%. Sounds great, except that your cell-phone bill also went up 9% and so did your rent and your auto insurance and corn and beef and corned-beef and Big Macs and chili-mac and women's apparel, clothing, lingerie, golf-clubs, green fees, gasoline, tickets for entertainment or sporting events, toilet paper, beer and even the dope you buy on the streets.


If in the next year the annual rate of Real Inflation is 15%, then your wages....and everything else....increases 15%.

For the Stu-tards......let's try not to be too terribly dumb.....your mortgage and car note are fixed by contract (and the same is true for anything else under contract).

On top of that, you can have Demand-pull Inflation. If Demand-pull increases the price of goods or services by 78%, then 9% Real Inflation makes it 87% higher.

As your drought worsens over the next several years, food prices will escalate due to Demand-pull Inflation, which has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve or QE or anything else.

Calculating...

Mircea