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OK, so that's an awkward name for a thread. The question I'm posing here is whether the oft-asserted expectation that Texas will become a "purple" state - or even a blue one - in the next few election cycles really holds water at a state-wide level, as opposed to local/municipal level politics and social attitudes.
A couple of things prompted me to pose this question: (1) I was thinking about the current enthusiasm and fund-raising capabilities of Sen. Wendy Davis' campaign vs. the immovable object represented by State AG Greg Abbott (sp?); (2) a number of regulars on this forum have asserted that Texas will become an increasingly politically purple or blue-ish state, yet large numbers of those posting on this forum for the first time and seeking to relocate to Texas from other states describe themselves as conservative and wanting to relocate to a more conservative place than their current place of residence. The larger context seems to me to be a self-sorting process of Americans at either end of the presumptive bell curve of social-political attitudes. Those on the very conservative end are arguably apt to seek out a home in what they perceive to be like-minded conservative-oriented communities and states, whilst those on the more liberal-communitarian end of social-political ideology will look for communities and jurisdictions that are perceived to be relatively liberal-progressive in social attitudes and voting patterns.
The great middle, of course, don't get highly exercised about such issues for the most part, and are likely to make their place of residence on factors of personal job opportunities, career path development, convenience, preferred climate, recreational opportunities, or simple inertia.
Given that certain cities and political districts within Texas might be moving in a blue or purple direction due to generational shifts and moderate-liberal-ish migration into the state based on economic factors, but at the same time a conservative influx into other Texas cities and exurban locales, is it really very likely that at the level of state politics, social policy expressed in legislation, and presidential electoral college vote Texas as a whole will become signficantly less socially and poltically conservative than it has been? Or to put it more simply, how likely is it that Texas at the level of state government and national political representation will be less in thrall to a particularly conservative faction of the Republican Party than it has been in recent years?
(1) I was thinking about the current enthusiasm and fund-raising capabilities of Sen. Wendy Davis' campaign vs. the immovable object represented by State AG Greg Abbott (sp?)
Most of the enthusiasm about Wendy Davis seems to be from non-Texans hoping to make Texas more blue. She doesn't appear to me to be exceptionally popular here.
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Originally Posted by doctorjef
large numbers of those posting on this forum for the first time and seeking to relocate to Texas from other states describe themselves as conservative and wanting to relocate to a more conservative place than their current place of residence. The larger context seems to me to be a self-sorting process of Americans at either end of the presumptive bell curve of social-political attitudes. Those on the very conservative end are arguably apt to seek out a home in what they perceive to be like-minded conservative-oriented communities and states, whilst those on the more liberal-communitarian end of social-political ideology will look for communities and jurisdictions that are perceived to be relatively liberal-progressive in social attitudes and voting patterns.
Self-sorting is definitely occurring. The blue states are getting bluer and the red states are getting redder. Missouri is a good example of a purple state that has become pretty red whereas Virginia is a red state that has become purple or blue.
Political scientists have recognized self-sorting as a real phenomenon. I think in the long-term it will continue and politics at the federal level will continue to become more and more contentious with much less room for compromise. Assuming self-sorting continues, in the extreme long-term it will probably become more difficult to maintain a "United" States of America.
Also in the mix is the redefinition of 'red' or 'blue'. Neither the democrats nor the republicans are what they were 30 years ago, and for better or worse, they still seem to be the go-to definition of red and blue.
I don't think either major political party is going to break up; they can only evolve within themselves. However, for the time being, I think we know what the blue of the national Democratic Party is; perhaps a little less uniformly defined, the red of the national Republican Party. I do think that some shenanigans on the part of Tea Party type Republicans have an expiry date on them. Bills in state legislatures trying to push the envelope on formal prayers in public schools, bills to legalise discrimination toward gay persons on the basis of "deeply held religious convictions", attempts to make it more difficult to vote, etc. are likely to meet their end in the next few years; likewise attempts to limit the teaching of modern science in public schools or introduce Christianist pseudo-science and biblicism to public school science texts. I even think that when the white lady becomes POTUS in Jan. 2017, a good deal of the broohah will die down at a number of levels.
However, I suspect that the forms taken by religious right counterculturalism and conservative protest against federal authority will shift to other manifestations; the geographical and cultural divides will persist in their essence.
The question, however, is what might happen in Texas as a sort of special case. As long as Texas maintains its strong economic draw, it will be bringing in people from both sides of the social-political divide. My premise would be that a sizeable number of economic migrants will be on a more liberal end of the continuum, whilst there will continue to be a draw - partially independent of economic factors - for conservatives who are sorting themselves into regions perceived as more conservative. However, due to the relatively more liberal-progressive nature of many of its cities, Texas liberals wouldn't feel the same need to leave the state as might be the case for such people in less cosmopolitan and diverse states. So will it just be a wash, or might things shift just enough in demography to create a change in the political dominance at a state level (statewide elective offices and majorities in the houses of the legislature)? Further, even if that were to occur, would instinctively liberal politicians have the courage to act boldly, or would they likely act as timid moderates, afraid to alienate an electorate who might quickly swing away from them?
I dont know that Texas will be a blue state for quite some time, however I agree that the Tea Party has hurt Republicans big time. Lots of people that I know (from right here in Texas) that are staunch conservatives on fiscal matters and even on some social issues despise the Tea Party. Its become more of a comedy show.
As for Texas directly, the demographics are changing and that will bring the area closer to the center. I dont know if it will bring it to the left though.
It should be noted that most of the population growth within Texas is more because of the high immigration and birth rate particularly among the Hispanic population as opposed to people relocating to Texas from other states, so even if a few conservative Republicans have relocated from say Orange County it would not change much in the grand scheme of things.
Honestly unless the Republican Party relaxes it's stance on social issues (ie prayer in schools, gay rights, abortion) and focuses more on economic issues I don't see them holding the reign much longer in Texas.
Honestly unless the Republican Party relaxes it's stance on social issues (ie prayer in schools, gay rights, abortion) and focuses more on economic issues I don't see them holding the reign much longer in Texas.
I think you missed something. Seems to me that Republicans are pushing FOR prayer everywhere. I don't recall ever hearing anything about Republicans being against prayer.
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In a new web ad, Republican Attorney General candidate Dan Branch highlights a bill he sponsored in 2003 requiring that students in Texas public schools be allowed to observe a moment of silent prayer or meditation.
Assimilation and migration will drive TX to continue to be a red state.
Most of the senior GOP in TX are former democrats who fled the tottering, inneffective democrat party that led the state into near bankruptcy in the early 80s.
The changes that occurred in TX politics since then have also occurred in Wisconsin and are now underway in other states like Michigan.
CA, NY, and NJ may be next to fall.
It is not a matter of left vs right but the old leadership being wed to a social and political and economic model that no longer works.
As for Wendy Davis, she is a joke. A party that used to field the likes of Ann Richards coughs up a hairball like Wendy Davis.
Davis can't help it. She voted for George Bush before she voted against him. The only thing she stands for is herself.
The Tea Party weighs in. Thanks for that unreasoned opinion,TXzipcode.
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