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I could very easily return to the Republican Party on many(no all) of their fiscal stances.
I was not just a Republican voter, but also a donor and provided feet on the ground.
However, I find the holy than thou attitude that apparently the "fundi, evangelical right" has forced into the party has alienated me and I shall not return until its gone, probably not my lifetime though.
Link froze on me, but I did read most of it. Didn't Scott Walker just win 52-46, and WI is on his 'blue wall' of states that Republicans cannot possibly win.
One point he makes I do agree with--the GOP needs to erase the perception of being a whites-only party, but I think we are doing that. Reince Priebus understands this very well, and is doing a good job of addressing it. Apparently this writer not aware of that. Maybe he needs to do more reading, and less writing.
As I've posted elsewhere the obsession with electoral map is dumb. In 54 of 57 (94.7%) presidential elections the winner of the popular vote also won the electoral vote.
We don't even know who the candidates will be in 2016. Anyone who claims to be able to predict that one party or the other is sure to win just imploded their own credibility.
I think the author specified that Republican governors can win in blue wall states, but that doesn't translate to the federal level.
I'm not sure if you understand that the popular vote does not elect the President? Not trying to be snarky here but you keep bringing it up. The population centers are in the northeast and west coasts. The strip in the middle and the southeast (mostly) are going to Republicans no matter what. They do not have the population and therefore the electoral votes to make a difference. The dissatisfaction that voters in these areas is different than the dissatisfaction with the coastal population. Of course there is overlap but it is not a skin color issue for the democrats as much as it seems to be with the republicans.
The popular vote in each state certainly do elect the President. So I keep bringing it up, because it is relevant. If you only got 52% of the vote, then it is not a secure state. Many of the states you claim is in the blue wall, can easily vote Republican in 2016.
And what makes you think the central areas are so different from the northeast and the west coast. We don't have different issues. When Obama screws up the health care reform, then he angers people all over America, not just in the strip in the middle. When he abuses executive order to grant amnesty, then he angers people all over america, not just in the strip in the middle.
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Republicans are doing themselves a disservice if they think that the majority think Obama is damaging the country. It's quite the opposite. It is the Republicans that are out to dismantle the government and damage the country. Read the original article and see how the progressive agenda won.
It is a fact, not a Republican opinion that a majority of Americans think Obama is taking US in the wrong direction. You are letting your bias affecting your analysis.
Take a look at this chart from 2012, there are very few true blue states that Democrats don't need to worry about. You don't win the election with only California and upper north east.
It is a fact, not a Republican opinion that a majority of Americans think Obama is taking US in the wrong direction. You are letting your bias affecting your analysis.
But what that fact means in terms of the next presidential election is not necessarily a problem for ds.
Many ds are disappointed in obama and think he has blown it. And they think the same of a number of d reps and sens.
Does that mean they will become reliable r voters?
In missouri, possibly yes.
In california, probably no.
Which reinforces the point of the article. Which is that in 2014, rs solidified their majority in places where they already *had* a majority. But did they start to convert any blue states or securely move any of the swing states? Little or no evidence of that.
An r who can win the governorship in a blue state probably is a pretty different creature politically than an r who wins the governorship in a red state.
Which sums up jeb bush's dilemma pretty well. The question is not whether he can win a presidential election - I think he could. The question is whether he can win the r nomination.
If people still think its a "whites only" party, they need to look at Mia Love and Tim Scott.
And....
Condolesa Rice
Colin Powell
Herman Cain
Ben Carson
Bobby Jindahl
Michael Steele
Clarence Powell
Roberto Gonzalez
Suzanna Martinez
Mario Garcia
Mark Rubio
Lots of black republican congressmen I can't remember their names
The above were just a few of the various Republican minorities in high government positions.
There are thousands more minorities as party members --- the media just doesn't like to acknowledge it.
Camlon, It takes little more than the densely populated Northeast plus West Coast. the 257 he alludes to are just 20 states plus DC, 21 of 51 with ECs, provide a mean of 12.2 ECs apiece in a nation where the mean EC of the 51 is 10.5. So each of the 21, on average, is 15% larger in population than the nation at large.
Conversely, the Red Fortress is EC puny. Some of this EC problem was not easily forseen. Upside down mortgages literally halved the 2010 EC blue-red shift versus 2000 (7 vs 15), and Va wipes out 13 ECs..almost double the 2010 census shift affect.
IMO, the GOP needs a single day primary which would rightfully, greatly reduce the pandering that occurs to the Itty Bitty Red Fortress. in so doing, it would de-radicalize the shift in the party that has happened the last 10 years. that will not be enough, but it would be a great start.
Another interesting thing about the article is that it points out that the blue states are much more economically diverse and productive than the red states. The fixation of the conservative base on the energy industry, makes it comparatively weaker and more reactionary. The GOP claims to be the party of business, but it is clear that the blue states are the powerhouses of innovation and economic diversity. Pandering to big oil, and oil patch states, has painted them into the corner as far as leading economic leadership and growth.
Camlon, It takes little more than the densely populated Northeast plus West Coast. the 257 he alludes to are just 20 states plus DC, 21 of 51 with ECs, provide a mean of 12.2 ECs apiece in a nation where the mean EC of the 51 is 10.5. So each of the 21, on average, is 15% larger in population than the nation at large.
wow... 15% larger than than the nation at large. You really have low standards for being a population center. So instead of 6 million people, there is 7 million people in each state?
Also, as pointed out before, there are not 257 secure electoral votes. He is even including Pennsylvania where Obama only won with 52%. That is not much when republicans chose Romney and has gained 4% since the house election in 2012.
The quite secure votes lies around 200 electoral votes in the 2016 election.
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IMO, the GOP needs a single day primary which would rightfully, greatly reduce the pandering that occurs to the Itty Bitty Red Fortress. in so doing, it would de-radicalize the shift in the party that has happened the last 10 years. that will not be enough, but it would be a great start.
And this is why Republicans should never take advice from Democrats, it is totally useless. (the same applies the other way)
First off, doing what you think will not de-radicalize the party, it will radicalize it. People do not like to be marginalized and will push back. This tactic has been tried in 2008 and 2012, it doesn't work.
That is because there is another group that is just as important as independent voters. Many people stayed at home in the 2012 election, because they disliked Romney so much they couldn't go out and vote for him.
Every election since the 80s have shown us that the candidates who can connect to people, win elections. That is what Clinton, Bush, and Obama had in common. A candidate with no conservative record cannot connect with conservative voters, and will do poorly because he can never get the true support from conservatives. Doesn't mean you should go to the far right of the Republican party, but don't get a candidate who has flip flopped on every issue, or a candidate who support amnesty, or a candidate who supported obamacare, or a candidate who spend more time fighting against fellow Republicans than Obama.
Another interesting thing about the article is that it points out that the blue states are much more economically diverse and productive than the red states. The fixation of the conservative base on the energy industry, makes it comparatively weaker and more reactionary. The GOP claims to be the party of business, but it is clear that the blue states are the powerhouses of innovation and economic diversity. Pandering to big oil, and oil patch states, has painted them into the corner as far as leading economic leadership and growth.
So if blue states are much more productive and economically diverse, how do you explain this? I colored them depending on what they voted in the last election.
1. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX $75,256
2. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA $71,534
3. Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI $64,571 (doesn't just include the terrible Detroit city area)
4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX $62,867
5. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX $62,679
6. Memphis, TN-MS-AR $61,780
7. Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC $61,636
8. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $60,844
9. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA $60,237
10. Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN $59,828
39. Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY $50,723
40. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV $50,328
41. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA $50,169
42. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA $49,414
43. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC $49,091
44. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL $48,012
45. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL $47,771
46. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA $46,822
47. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA $46,411
48. Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA $42,254
49. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA $41,000
If I looked at unemployment, or industrial production it would not look much better for democratic states. California, and New York has one of the highest poverty rates in the nation if you adjust it for cost of living. And the finances of California is absolutely terrible.
Sure, some areas that are Republican is not that good, such as Mississippi. They vote Republican because of their religious convictions, not because they support the free market. And because of that, freedom in the 50 nations gave them place 41. Freedom in the 50 States 2013 | Overall Freedom | Mercatus Center
Wow, you make it way too complicated with all the blue wall, red wall machinations, Chef. In 54 of 57 presidential elections, the winner of the popular vote also won the electoral vote. So let's just focus on the popular vote.
Romney won 59% of the white vote but lost 80.5% of the non-white vote. If he had won just 27% of the non-white vote, he would have won the election(or at least a 54/57=95% chance of doing so). As you point out the white vote declines by about 2% each 4 year cycle, so the bar will be raised just a bit in 2016.
But the bottom line is that if the GOP can just get to 33% or so of the non-white vote, they will have overwhelming dominance in national elections. And hopefully keep going on to eventually obliterate the absurd situation wherein ideology is a function of skin tone.
Priebus and others in the GOP are working on this, and I am confident that they will succeed.
I'm all for dumping the electoral college in favor of the popular vote.
This way my vote would actually count! As a conservative here in Cali it (my vote) has been irrelevant for nearly 30 years.
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