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There is a normal distribution of intelligence, and by the very nature of the work, you don't need 100 million+ people in one nation working on "research & development;" you need a relatively small fraction doing that, which is what most advanced nations have.
Oh, and by the way, USA stopped being a primarily agricultural economy a long time ago and has been a leader, not a laggard, of technological advancement.
.
Obama put nothing into STEM, he promised some of our money to it. Do not deify politicians for how generous with your money they are, any more than you'd deify me for robbing you and giving a portion of what I stole to STEM grants.
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Originally Posted by Spatula City
Yes, let's just let the Koch Brothers tell everyone what to do with their lives.
At least the Koch brothers spend their own money, not yours.
Mircea, I assure you a LOT of us are working hard on the 5th level economy you reference.
That wouldn't include you.
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Originally Posted by greywar
And no we weren't ready to go R&D in 1990,.....
...because your education system had been destroyed.
Up through the 1950s, the US was cranking out mathematicians, engineers and scientists of all sorts, who led you from the 2nd Level Economy into the 3rd and 4th Levels.
From the 1960s on, you've been cranking out far more morons than math and science people.
Your advancement stalled in the 1990s.
You're stagnant empire in decay.
If Apollo 13 happened today, right now, those guys would die.
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Originally Posted by greywar
Absolutely....but until the obviousness of it becomes apparent to everyone our schools will not change.
Then I hope you all enjoy your 1970's Standard of Living and Life-Style.
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Originally Posted by greywar
So figure 2025 or so.
When you get burned by Monetary Inflation? Yes.
So you're saying the largest amount of your GDP is going to be from R&D in 2025.
That's a fail.
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Originally Posted by greywar
And no, China is not beating us there, they are however catching up.
I never said they were, but thanks for the Straw Man Misrepresentation.
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Originally Posted by Spatula City
In which parallel universe does this even resemble a fact?
Obama himself put over $260 million into STEM grants as soon as he took office
The problem in your education system is structural and pedagogical, not financial.
$260 TRILLION in STEM grants would result in nothing happening very slowly.
Thanks for proving Obama does not understand the problem.
There is a normal distribution of intelligence, and by the very nature of the work, you don't need 100 million+ people in one nation working on "research & development;" you need a relatively small fraction doing that, which is what most advanced nations have.
Straw Man Your reasoning contains the straw man fallacy whenever you attribute an easily refuted position to your opponent, one that the opponent wouldn’t endorse, and then proceed to attack the easily refuted position (the straw man) believing you have undermined the opponent’s actual position. If the misrepresentation is on purpose, then the straw man fallacy is caused by lying.
You're proof of the failure of your education system.
I never once said 100+ Million need to be in the 5th Level R&D Economy, but thanks for misleading everyone.
And really, the teeny-tiny Kingdom of Norway whose population is 200,000 less than Cook County, Illinois?
Please, educate yourself, since your union teachers failed.
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Originally Posted by ambient
Oh, and by the way, USA stopped being a primarily agricultural economy a long time ago and has been a leader, not a laggard, of technological advancement.
More nonsense.
In 1935, nearly 70% of Americans were engaged in Agriculture. Does that make the US a ZERO Level Economy?
No, it's based on GDP and other factors.
Get it?
If the greatest amount of your GDP comes from 2nd Level activity, then you are a 2nd Level Economy.
This pie chart shows economic industry, not economic level, but it helps illustrate the point.
For every 2nd Level Manufacturing Job you lost, you should have gained 0.85 - 0.95 jobs in R&D, which pays better than Manufacturing.
Right now, 20% of your GDP should be from R&D, but it isn't because you don't have what it takes.
Are you ready for Great Satan Global Smack-Down II?
You couldn't compete against China (population 1.5 Billion) and their $0.45/hour wages
How are you going to compete against India (population 1 Billion) and their $0.28/hour wages when they enter their 2nd Level Economy just like China did 14 years ago?
Got an answer?
Show us how superb the US system of public education dictated by idiots on Capitol Hill really is.
C'mon.....tell us.....we're waiting....
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Originally Posted by ambient
Also, regarding the depopulation thing... the world's population is growing at a geometric rate, and that shows no sign of decline.
No signs you could ever see.
Affluence lower birth-rate.
As BRICS does what you should have done, the birth-rates in developing- and emerging-States will continue to decline, whether you believe it or not.
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Originally Posted by ambient
Even if the rate slows, stalls, or eventually turns negative when we get to this advanced economic Nirvana you're talking about, we'll have to do something with the 10 billion or so who will be in the population based by then. And even if a third of them die out, technological advancement will still mean that you'll have a massive jobs and resource allocation crisis on your hands.
No, your Earth is capable of handling ~76 Billion or so.
Your population growth is on target to peak near the end of this Century, and then you'll have Peak Population.
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Originally Posted by ambient
The point is simply that at some future state in this country (or any first-world country), most people will simply not be needed for work...
Notwithstanding your racial bigotry and obvious hatred of People of Color and People in the 2nd and 3rd World, if you cannot think "Outside the Box" then you deserve to be Darwin'd.
Ndela in Sierra Leone gets the minimum wage of $0.03/hour.
How are you going to compete against her?
What's the Plan?
Are you going to murder 1 Billion people in sub-Saharan Africa because you can't compete against them economically?
Wow, that's really progressive.
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Originally Posted by ambient
So what do you do with the rest?
Since you have no interest in restoring your education system, you can devolve economically backwards to the ZERO Level Economy and Americans can farm and be the Bread-Basket of the World.
Another flaw in your failed thinking is Profit.
Profit is an absolute necessity and requirement for any economy.
I don't care if you subscribe to Capitalist, Socialist or Communist Property Theories or to Free or Command Market Economic Systems, without Profit you cannot acquire new Capital, and without new Capital, there can be no growth.
It's going to be impossible for your government to operate a nanny-State without any Profits.
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Originally Posted by ambient
If you're a conservative, I suppose you can pretend it's still 1950 and blame those folks for being lazy.
I am a Conservative. Why would I care about the 1950s?
If you like Recessions, you'd love the 1950s....they had 3 recessions.
You have no idea. I assure you it does. But hey feel free to live in your fantasy world.
Quote:
...because your education system had been destroyed.
Up through the 1950s, the US was cranking out mathematicians, engineers and scientists of all sorts, who led you from the 2nd Level Economy into the 3rd and 4th Levels.
From the 1960s on, you've been cranking out far more morons than math and science people.
Your advancement stalled in the 1990s.
You're stagnant empire in decay.
If Apollo 13 happened today, right now, those guys would die.
No because it wasnt the appropriate time. We STILL crank out engineers and scientists of all sorts. In fact we have more and more each year despite your statement to the contrary.
If Apollo 13 happened today those guys would be fine, just as they were then. The guy welcoming people to walmart is not generally working at NASA
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Then I hope you all enjoy your 1970's Standard of Living and Life-Style.
LOL. My lifestyle is vastly improved since the 1990's. I dont even recall the 1970's as I wasnt born til then.
Quote:
When you get burned by Monetary Inflation? Yes.
So you're saying the largest amount of your GDP is going to be from R&D in 2025.
That's a fail.
"so you're saying"....no. What I said was that we will start moving into that sort of thing then.
I am a Conservative. Why would I care about the 1950s?
If you like Recessions, you'd love the 1950s....they had 3 recessions.
Sensibly....
Mircea
You still failed to get the point.
All the numbers you throw around to fellate your ego miss the point that, irrespective of your arbitrary notions about what percentage of America's economy should be driven by R&D today, the point is that you can't have everyone in this nation doing R&D jobs. With the advent of artificial intelligence and advanced robotics, most people will not be needed for ANY sort of productive work, and that's what flew way over your head.
Conservatives are people who are stuck in the past and think that when we reach these future levels of unemployment, it will be the fault of those lazy people who didn't go to school, blah blah. Which is about all you said in fifty paragraphs. They, too, are people will will fail to get the point.
Frankly...screw jobs, we may end up dealing with a far more fundamental existential threat on our hands at the point where we reach technological singularity and artificial intelligence really surpasses us. The future where machines can independently adapt their behavior to achieve goals does not seem to crazy anymore.
You're not understanding the basic premise, most people don't. Its one thing when technology makes a job easier for you, its another when it takes the job completely. We're talking about a machine that can run a business, perform nursing and doctor duties, drive mail to your front door, produce other machines that do the work etc. Its a thing that can do any job, thus eliminating humans from being necessary to do it.
This is nothing new. Throughout history inventions have improved productivity and eliminated jobs. The McCormick harvesting machine put thousands of farm laborers out of a job. The telegraph put pony express riders out of a job.
As the narrator of this piece says, "You may think we've been here before, but we haven't. This time is different.".
And that's been erroneously predicted for over 200 years. "In 1798 Thomas Malthus famously predicted that short-term gains in living standards would inevitably be undermined as human population growth outstripped food production, and thereby drive living standards back toward subsistence. We were, he argued, condemned by the tendency of population to grow geometrically while food production would increase only arithmetically. "
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