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If you are "doing well", Obama's policies will be ones that transfer your increased income and investment returns to others.
No one mentioned cashing out in the next year and 1 /2.
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Originally Posted by hawkeye2009
That is the nature of socialism. A transfer of wealth and the products of labor are taken from the productive and given to the non-productive.
No one mentioned cashing out in the next year and 1 /2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009
As far as your investments, I have been through booms and busts going back to the 1970s. When you are happy with your portfolio, that is the time to get out the market. I missed out on this run (as I sold out at Dow 10,500 after buying at the bottom), but did not get killed in 2008, 2000, and 1987. Let me know about those investments in a few years, as I have seen it all before.
Maybe hold off on giving investment advice.
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Originally Posted by hawkeye2009
Young investors tend to get sluaghtered.
Because they can assume more risk, plenty of time to recover.
I've seen plenty of older guys go all-in as well. Age is irrelevant.
If that is all true, Obama has taken half of your good fortune in taxes.
Regarding the stock market, don't fight the fed. With interest rates rising, the market will go down. Good job to those who rode the market up to fantastic levels, as I cashed out at DOW 10,500 (at which point the market was fully valued by any measure- stupid me).
When interest rates rise and quantitative easing is no longer a viable option, the market will revert to historic norms. However, in these "corrections", things tend to overshoot 20% on either side.
No man can predict the future. We can only get some clues from the past. However, there is a reason that we look through the front window, rather than the rear view mirror, while driving.
Every word of it is true. And if you really believe that Obama's tax increases have taken "half" my money- you've got no business giving financial advice. You seem like a bright person otherwise, so I'm gonna assume that was hyperbole.
I try to manage my money based on observed reality. When you start mixing ideology into it- notions of good/bad/right/wrong/etc.- you end up missing out on a historic bull market (for instance). Or selling out at the bottom of the market and buying gold like a friend of mine did. Or refusing to sell gold at $1700/ounce like a family member of mine did; he bought it around $300/ounce!
Part of my 401K increase happened simply because I can now afford to put more money into it... but a big chunk of it is due to the fact that I put it ALL into stocks in Spring of 2009- and it all stayed there until several weeks ago. I may never time the market that well again- I'm far from an expert. But I HAVE observed that people of a certain political persuasion have been screaming DOOM throughout this entire bull market- and many (including friends and family of mine) have missed out on historic gains. Makes it really hard for me to take financial advice from that perspective seriously.
You and I do agree on one point... though possibly for different reasons. This current stock market is dangerous to be in. A couple months ago I resolved that if the DOW hit 18,000 again, I'd pull a big chunk of money out. And it did- so I pulled more than 40% of my money out. If the market hits 18,000 again, I might pull more out. When the next correction happens, it'll go right back in. Or maybe I'll buy some energy stocks at fire-sale prices this fall (I think there's plenty of pain left in that sector).
A quarter percentage point isn't that much in the long run- I've seen the Fed pass those quarter-points out like tictacs in better times. And nobody is gonna be all THAT surprised (IOW it's already priced into the market to some extent)... we've been waiting for this for how many years? But in the short-term, it'll have a psychological impact. We could be in for some wild swings. Combine that with instability in Asia and Europe, along with serious imbalances due to the oil/commodities crash... and I think a serious correction could well be in order.
HOWEVER! I'm bullish in the long run. First of all, the Fed is a one-trick pony anymore. At the first sign of trouble, I think they'll make a big show of hand-wringing and finger-pointing... but that will result in QE4. And why WOULDN'T they? They've 'printed' trillions of dollars, and (official) inflation is just a vague memory that haunts Republicans' dreams. We're seeing serious DEFLATIONARY pressures right now with commodities being so low. We've seen how austerity is working out in Europe- we're in MUCH better shape- so I think it's safe bet that a loose monetary policy will be in place for a LONG time to come. And when the stock market starts artificially inflating again... I'm gonna ride it right back up. Besides, the United States has A LOT going for it right now. Our country has a strangle-hold on the world's financial system. The dollar is strong. We can apparently borrow/print infinite money. Our consumers just keep buying whether they have money or not. We have a budding Cold War II that promises TRILLIONS in "defense" spending. And last but far from least... the oldest Millennials are just entering their prime spending years. So on the time-horizon that I'm looking at... I'm not betting against America. Not in the long run.
I think it's safe bet that a loose monetary policy will be in place for a LONG time to come. And when the stock market starts artificially inflating again... I'm gonna ride it right back up. Besides, the United States has A LOT going for it right now. Our country has a strangle-hold on the world's financial system. The dollar is strong. We can apparently borrow/print infinite money. Our consumers just keep buying whether they have money or not. We have a budding Cold War II that promises TRILLIONS in "defense" spending. And last but far from least... the oldest Millennials are just entering their prime spending years. So on the time-horizon that I'm looking at... I'm not betting against America. Not in the long run.
Kerry says the dollar is at risk unless we let Iran have nukes:
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If the United States walks away from the nuclear deal with Iran and demands that its allies comply with U.S. sanctions, a loss of confidence in U.S. leadership could threaten the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency, the top U.S. diplomat said on Tuesday.
"If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, 'You're going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway,' that is a recipe, very quickly ... for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said at a Reuters Newsmaker event.
Sorry, I don't put too much stock in political grandstanding. I'd suggest you take statements like that with a grain of salt.
I think the Narcissist in Chief and his horse are capable of anything when they don't get their way.
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You sold at Dow 10,500!
