Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Why our next foreign policy focus will start to include China's greater role in the world.
Like them, despise them, take them with a grain of salt but as most of us know, the rise of neoconservatism stems from several causes, two of which are a distaste for all things liberal and a desire to assert American dominance around the globe. The Soviet Union was the mother that gave birth to this movement and when it fell, the neosconservatives moved to assume the vacuum of power that was left. What occurred soon after was a stagnation of the US military apparatus, in which case, with the help of Osama Bin Laden and the rise of radical Islam, we were given a new enemy to focus upon.
The fact that this front was in a region of the world of great strategic importance was no coincidence, but in the course of such focused and directed intervention, something else has occurred. The quickening rise of China and Russia on the economic playing field.
Now I am attempting to broaden this discussion by adding in the above commentary but the reasons for this post are merely hypothetical pondering.
Two things I came across today that are unrelated unto themselves but if you take a step back, it can be seen how they are starting to become more related each day. The first is this piece titled:
China's weapons exceed self-defense needs: US military
The Raw Story | China's weapons exceed self-defense needs: US military (http://rawstory.com/news/afp/China_s_weapons_exceed_self_defense_01282008.html - broken link)
Now I just thought it odd that the US would use such wording, it is almost capitulating in tone.
Quote:
The United States said Monday it was "troubling" that China's weapons systems capability exceeded the level Beijing defined as necessary for self-defense.
The head of the US armed forces in the Asia-Pacific, Admiral Timothy Keating, said he was told by Chinese leaders during a visit to Beijing that its so-called "area denial weapons" were "to protect those things that are ours."
But he said, "we find it troubling that the capabilities of some of these weapons systems would tend to exceed our own expectations for protecting those things that are 'ours.'"
Little odd that the United States, the worlds most powerful nation would publicly display such concerns about a country that has less than 1/16th of the yearly military budget as the US.
In any case, I was checking my inbox when this piece about economic concerns facing the US showed up.
Your Questions Answered ... (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?Gold-and-Oil-Hit-All-Time-High-Prices-3 - broken link)
While somber and a bit depressing of an article, I did get a chuckle out of how those more economically in-tuned folks can so optimistically see opportunity in any market. (my hats off to them as my economic understanding fits in a thimble)
At any rate, I noticed the part about the strength of the Chinese market and how China was dumping all kinds of money into their infrastructure and growing economy. Also, much to my surprise was the phenomenal rate of growing millionaires in India.
When I step back and look at these two completely unrelated pieces and wonder, is China going to be the next most intent focus of the United States? Would a less technically advanced nation such as China be capable of putting the economic whammies to the United States in our current state if they so desired? Anywho, curious as to folks thoughts on these two articles and how they may or may not relate.
I can't provide a good answer right now because of the complexity of the economic issues and the linkages to military strategy. Briefly though, I would like to mention that a significant issue causing military concern was the absolutely stupid demonstation that China executed showing it can destroy a satellite. About a year ago, they shot a missile and destroyed an old Chinese weather satellite over 500 miles out in orbit. The stupidity is that they didn't factor in the debris field left from this demonstration, and now both the US and Russia have to expend a whole lot of extra cost in monitoring their satellites and repostioning them to dodge the space debris. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
This could have been demonstrated without the secondary damage, we could have coordinated a target or drone not in a core orbit, and they still would have had their test, but that is China. Even if they insisted on going at it alone, they could have hit something that was in the process of deorbiting, and keeping the debris field at a minimum.
Price of gold is somewhat related to a few factors. First off, you need to take a look at historical prices. Gold peaked at around $880 per oz in 1980, and then severely declined. Current gold is around $920 per oz, which is about $350 in constant 1980 dollars. With the decline in currency, and inflation since 1980, it actually is pretty constant with international prices. Also the ratio of the price of an oz of gold typically would buy about 13-15 barrels of oil (you have price lags but that is the 50 year ave), and if oil is trading at around $90 per barrel that would indicate gold in a target price of $1200 per oz.
China has significant research and development problems which will really inhibit their ability to technologically advance. So in response to your summary question, I see the US developing a multi-country strategy for economic and military cooperation. The set up is exceptionally complex, involving a combination of economic agreements along with military offensive and defensive capabilities with multiple nations surrounding China, and would need to be done in a way that doesn't create the need for a China and Russia strategic relationship. Taiwan is a part of this strategy, along with South Korea, Japan, India and Burma (a significant long term potential player in the region).
But the main thing, I don't believe you will find them to be our military opponent over the next 20-25 years (planning beyond that is pointless).
Side note: Did you hear about that 10 ton US spy satellite that is plunging towards earth? What I found rather disconcerting about it was that it, "may" have hazardous materials on board and they don't have a clue where it will land. As though they can't remember if it had hazardous material or not. Wonder if Amadinejad will call that a WMD?
As I was attempting to get at the very generality of the first piece concerning the US concerns over Chinese defense technologies being employed in an inconsistent manner. More than anything that piece said to me that the US is starting to shift an eye towards China more now than it has in the past 10 years, which I think is a good thing.
The second piece, I was a bit surprised when it framed our national debt total, between the governments debt, personal debt, trade debt, commercial and business debt, etc... it gave the appearance that American is in hock up to its eyeballs. Because it is so, it forces the US to devalue the dollar and cause inflation in order to pay off these debts, a method I am familiar with, but wonder just how much it will have to be devalued.
In any case, the time required for the US dollar and stock market to correct itself, does this not give places like China and India even more time to get ahead when they have so little external debt when compared to us? Unlike some folks, I don't see a market or dollar crash as the end of the world, but merely a few years of tight times and an opportunity elsewhere, like commodities and gold.
Excuse my ignorance but other than economics (trillions invested in the US) and Taiwan what else is there to fear about China? Or are these the reason to worry about them. I know the economic impact of them pulling their money out but militarily what can they do to the US that needs attention.
This is a very long article, but it puts forth the idea that in 2012, regardless of which current front runner gets the Presidency, that America's role in the world will be overshadowed by Europe and Asia.
Side note: Did you hear about that 10 ton US spy satellite that is plunging towards earth? What I found rather disconcerting about it was that it, "may" have hazardous materials on board and they don't have a clue where it will land. As though they can't remember if it had hazardous material or not. Wonder if Amadinejad will call that a WMD?
In any case, the time required for the US dollar and stock market to correct itself, does this not give places like China and India even more time to get ahead when they have so little external debt when compared to us? Unlike some folks, I don't see a market or dollar crash as the end of the world, but merely a few years of tight times and an opportunity elsewhere, like commodities and gold.
Satellites tend to burn up rather completely when falling from the sky, tough to survive the burn of reentry. A little stuff getting through is always possible, but it shouldn't be any worse than "blue ice" falling from a jet (though I wouldn't want to personally be standing under it when it hits).
I view the expansion of China and India as a positive for our trade balance over the long term, especially with our declining dollar. Total debt doesn't have me too concerned. It has been worse as a % of GDP, and I'm sure whoever gets elected will be more adult about US overall finances and begin to get that reduced. China and India have inflation problems on the near horizon, should keep them plenty busy internally, and not too focused on any international mischief (Taiwan) .
Excuse my ignorance but other than economics (trillions invested in the US) and Taiwan what else is there to fear about China? Or are these the reason to worry about them. I know the economic impact of them pulling their money out but militarily what can they do to the US that needs attention.
Excuse my ignorance on this area.
Well their strong economic position and rising investment in military expenditures is certainly something that when combined should be pause for concern.
China has been focusing on two areas of note, one which are advanced missile systems and the other is a sizable increase in their naval forces. Usually navies are seen as a means to project power as opposed to use in defense and I think this is one of the things that is causing some concern here in the US. Also keep in mind, China has stolen large amounts of US weapons technology through the years and I have to wonder, just how much intelligence do we have on Chinese military technology.
This is a very long article, but it puts forth the idea that in 2012, regardless of which current front runner gets the Presidency, that America's role in the world will be overshadowed by Europe and Asia.
Paperhouse, you might want to check this one out that I wrote a while back. Let me know what you think.
While that article was a good read, it undermines US influence on the global stage (even in 2016)
The US, is by far, the largest consumer of goods and its market is still tied to world markets. This, in no way means that China and a future EU wouldn't be setting their own policies as they move up the ranks, but that certainly does not translate into an insignificant US.
China's military isn't weak, but it's a far cry from the Soviet machine that once rivaled Cold-War NATO on every level of war. We shouldn't worry/wonder why their military strength is growing, we should just act accordingly by making sure our own military strength is right should we ever get involved in conflict with them
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
.
