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I make my living in the oil industry, and I'm certainly not routing for it's early demise. That said, this article gives an interesting perspective (got to get past the first part, which is a bit dramatic, in my opinion).
I'd like to to filter out all those on the extreme fringe left/right, and am very interested in hearing some moderated, well thought out response about what you think of this. I'm not sure what to make of it, but there are certainly some interesting ideas.
I do believe that self-driving cars will create a game-changing shift in our economy, and the arguments presented about the electric car IN CONTEXT TO THAT SHIFT are compelling.
I do think it ignores that people LIKE to drive. That driving is not just point A to point B. People have their classic cars, their roadsters, and their motorcycles. I wonder how those might share the road in a world like the author has painted (CRAP, now I am thinking about Rush 2112: "...in a world like I have seen".
Anyway, I'm interested in a discussion, and particularly interested in respectful DISAGREEMENT. I'd like to hear some different perspectives. If you have qualifications, please feel free to state them. Me, I am very close to the oil industry, and I do believe it will impact capital investments and returns, but to what extent I am not sure.
I guess it all depends on people being willing to give up cars as a status symbol, and rely on automated taxi service instead. I could see it working in dense cities where car ownership is already impractical.
People still buy large, overpriced, poorly built houses because of the status they give. Why not simply live in a small, efficient, well built apartment instead?
What about longer trips? The range of EVs is still terrible. How many gasoline rental cars will be needed to visit Grandma in Ohio on thanksgiving weekend?
I guess it all depends on people being willing to give up cars as a status symbol, and rely on automated taxi service instead. I could see it working in dense cities where car ownership is already impractical.
People still buy large, overpriced, poorly built houses because of the status they give. Why not simply live in a small, efficient, well built apartment instead?
What about longer trips? The range of EVs is still terrible. How many gasoline rental cars will be needed to visit Grandma in Ohio on thanksgiving weekend?
Agree with all that you said. I still think that the writers point has merit. As we've seen, the majority of people live in density centers, and the trend is strong in that direction. Car ownership won't be extinct in 10 years, but I do believe that it will be VERY different than what we know today. Maybe it will be 15 or 20, maybe it will be less.
I do think that this will have MASSIVE impact on industry and capital investment, just as the current crash in oil prices did. The ripples in the economy will be big, not necessarily devastating. I've heard many of the oil majors are creating business models with low oil prices being permanent, not just "long term".
Agree with all that you said. I still think that the writers point has merit. As we've seen, the majority of people live in density centers, and the trend is strong in that direction. Car ownership won't be extinct in 10 years, but I do believe that it will be VERY different than what we know today. Maybe it will be 15 or 20, maybe it will be less.
I do think that this will have MASSIVE impact on industry and capital investment, just as the current crash in oil prices did. The ripples in the economy will be big, not necessarily devastating. I've heard many of the oil majors are creating business models with low oil prices being permanent, not just "long term".
It all comes down to advances in battery technology. Gasoline still has something like 100x more energy per kilogram than lithium ion batteries. Electric motors are about 4x more efficient than gasoline engines, so the advantage of gasoline is reduced to a factor of about 25. That's still a formidable advantage for gasoline. And in cold climates, some of that waste heat from the gasoline engine is quite useful. With an electric car, your cabin heat must come from the batteries, greatly impacting your range.
There's also the huge issue with battery longevity and cost. My iPhone has about half the storage that it did two years ago when it was brand new. If you have to replace your car batteries every 2 or 3 years, how much is that going to cost? Even if we all switch to automated taxi service, how cheap will the service be if the taxi companies are constantly replacing the batteries? Yes, there is far less maintenance for an EV otherwise, but battery economics is still a huge issue.
I make my living in the oil industry, and I'm certainly not routing for it's early demise. That said, this article gives an interesting perspective (got to get past the first part, which is a bit dramatic, in my opinion).
I'd like to to filter out all those on the extreme fringe left/right, and am very interested in hearing some moderated, well thought out response about what you think of this. I'm not sure what to make of it, but there are certainly some interesting ideas.
I do believe that self-driving cars will create a game-changing shift in our economy, and the arguments presented about the electric car IN CONTEXT TO THAT SHIFT are compelling.
I do think it ignores that people LIKE to drive. That driving is not just point A to point B. People have their classic cars, their roadsters, and their motorcycles. I wonder how those might share the road in a world like the author has painted (CRAP, now I am thinking about Rush 2112: "...in a world like I have seen".
Anyway, I'm interested in a discussion, and particularly interested in respectful DISAGREEMENT. I'd like to hear some different perspectives. If you have qualifications, please feel free to state them. Me, I am very close to the oil industry, and I do believe it will impact capital investments and returns, but to what extent I am not sure.
What is the point of the article other than the author being a total idiot?
"We only use oil for cars. When cars are no longer using internal combustion engines, we don't need oil. I'm going to invent a machine that turns mud into kittens, and I'm going to play with those kittens all day. It will be fun."
Authors dream to 'kill big oil' = a FAIL. Never gonna happen - story premise is a farce!
Where do you think we'll get PLASTIC to make parts for all those electric cars? thats right; petroleum!
And how about the synthetic rubber to make all the TIRES for those electric cars? again; petroleum!
Do you think the METALs to make those cars just JUMPS right out of the ground?? No - HUGE vehicles running on DIESEL recovers those ores to make steel/aluminium/copper/etc.. (those huge vehicles ALSO have huge (synthetic) rubber tires!
Do all these things just happen by themselves, or will they need PEOPLE to manage/run the machines/factories (people using COMPUTERS (ALSO made mainly of plastic and metals) needing FOOD (which is made possible by advanced agriculture using synthetic FERTILIZERS (produced from; yep, thats right; petroleum !!!) and harvest by TRACTORS running on DIESEL (which are also made of STEEL with Synthetic RUBBER tires!!). They'll need clothes and shoes and medicines and makeup and toothbrushes and dental fillings and surgical supplies and water hoses and new carpet and on and on and on... Those people need to live in homes (ALSO requiring steel/plastics/synthetics by the TONS, and requiring TRILLIONS of cubic feet of natural gas to keep warm in winter, and TRILLIONS of cubic feet of gas to run power generation stations to produce ELECTRICITY to power home AC's in the summer, and to CHARGE all the damn batteries in all those electric cars . . . .!!!!!
I've wrote just a tiny bit above, about how EVERY BIT of our lives are transformed and ENERGIZED by petroleum based products, but
First of all, those in the oil industry are sweating! I know a few that work for BP.
Secondly, electrics, plug-in hybrids, hybrids and other alternate fuel vehicles are going to have a huge impact on the oil industry going forward. The new Tesla has more than a 300 mile range with very little maintenance. And that is with a very immature battery industry/technology! The big three are all over this and investing heavily.
If Big Oil doesn't find a way to embrace this, it will be a long slow contraction for them. 71% of oil is used for fuel. Today oil based fuels are dominant, in 10 years, they will not be.
Petroleum and it's byproducts will not go away, but the demand may be shrinking at the same time that the supply is actually increasing. Basic economics.
Imagine you have an electric for your day-to-day commute and simply rent a hybrid for long trips. As the author points out, electric vehicles can last a very long time and we are now in the development infancy. The average car today has been on the road for almost 12 years. If you double that, way less plastic going into manufacturing.
Even big trucks may be going to electric. They are already going hybrid. Plenty of room for batteries, and charge up at rest stops while taking their required 10 hours "rest".
Both Big Oil and the auto industry are taking this quite seriously and putting their money where their mouth is.
Last edited by shaker281; 08-07-2017 at 09:06 AM..
Authors dream to 'kill big oil' = a FAIL. Never gonna happen - story premise is a farce!
Where do you think we'll get PLASTIC to make parts for all those electric cars? thats right; petroleum!
And how about the synthetic rubber to make all the TIRES for those electric cars? again; petroleum!
Do you think the METALs to make those cars just JUMPS right out of the ground?? No - HUGE vehicles running on DIESEL recovers those ores to make steel/aluminium/copper/etc.. (those huge vehicles ALSO have huge (synthetic) rubber tires!
Do all these things just happen by themselves, or will they need PEOPLE to manage/run the machines/factories (people using COMPUTERS (ALSO made mainly of plastic and metals) needing FOOD (which is made possible by advanced agriculture using synthetic FERTILIZERS (produced from; yep, thats right; petroleum !!!) and harvest by TRACTORS running on DIESEL (which are also made of STEEL with Synthetic RUBBER tires!!). They'll need clothes and shoes and medicines and makeup and toothbrushes and dental fillings and surgical supplies and water hoses and new carpet and on and on and on... Those people need to live in homes (ALSO requiring steel/plastics/synthetics by the TONS, and requiring TRILLIONS of cubic feet of natural gas to keep warm in winter, and TRILLIONS of cubic feet of gas to run power generation stations to produce ELECTRICITY to power home AC's in the summer, and to CHARGE all the damn batteries in all those electric cars . . . .!!!!!
I've wrote just a tiny bit above, about how EVERY BIT of our lives are transformed and ENERGIZED by petroleum based products, but
Articles Author is a FOOL!
This. If anything oil use will increase as the population increases because we need oil to grow enough food to keep up with population growth. In fact, if we ever run out of oil, billions of people will starve to death.
This. If anything oil use will increase as the population increases because we need oil to grow enough food to keep up with population growth. In fact, if we ever run out of oil, billions of people will starve to death.
I suspect we will run out of clean water first.
Seems counter intuitive to use water to get oil out of the ground. But it is happening more and more every day.
What is the point of the article other than the author being a total idiot?
"We only use oil for cars. When cars are no longer using internal combustion engines, we don't need oil. I'm going to invent a machine that turns mud into kittens, and I'm going to play with those kittens all day. It will be fun."
What is the point of making up fake quotes and spreading lies. He actually acknowledged that autos make up a small percentage of oil use, and he addressed it. I had the same concerns with the article, but instead of making sh-t up, I read the whole thing.
Honestly, I get that some people won't agree, and that's cool. But if you don't have anything to add to the discussion, just take a pass. If you have an intelligent argument about why it's wrong, that is totally acceptable. Trolling is not.
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With an electric car, your cabin heat must come from the batteries, greatly impacting your range.
