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I think a few Republicans are skiddish. They remember how many Democrats were voted out after they voted for the ACA.
Agree. The AL results will scare some of them. They already know the "tax cut for billionaires" is unpopular with voters. Now they realize they might be voted out of office if they vote the wrong way, especially given what happened in AL.
I suspect a few of them will be against the new tax plan,and their excuse will be any of the tweaks that occurred since they last agreed to it.
I have written before of how one Republican political strategist opined that the Republicans were playing a 'long game', to wit: to pass this 'tax reform', which greatly helps the 'big donors' to the Republican party (and helps the big donors to the Democrats), all while adding to the national debt, and setting the stage for a new recession.
However, said strategist said that while the Republicans are aware that their actions may cost them control of the House and perhaps even the Senate in 2018, and then the White House in 2020, they take comfort in the fact that the recession will probably strike during said Democratic control, and that voters tend to blame the Party In Power for economic downturns, and not the Party That Caused The Downturn, and so the Republicans may count on being back in power in 2022 and 2024.
Yet, that said, there are some Republicans, no doubt, that do not want to lose their seats in Congress. These Republicans look at poll numbers, do not doubt that for a second. They are studying the Alabama vote today in great detail. They are mulling over the fact that a Senate seat, in one of the Bright Red states, elected a Democrat.
Even before this election, some Republicans were wavering. I had noted that it is entirely possible that Senate Republicans voted for their version of the tax bill knowing that it had to undergo the reconciliation process in the House/Senate committee. They are now 'on record' as voting for Huge Tax Cuts for All, despite reservations that the tax cuts only tend to help the Very Wealthy and Big Business.
Hence, to preserve their seat, they may decide to vote "No" on any final bill, thus being able to tell some of their constituents "Hey, I voted For the initial Tax Reform", while at the same time telling others, "Hey, I voted Against the Final Bill because it was flawed (for whatever reason)". It is not that unusual a thing in politics. It is called "Having your Cake and Eating it too".
So, yes, last night may embolden some to vote against whatever comes out of the joint committee. Self-preservation is a defining trait of most politicians.
it may. The market has responded positively to the proposed tax cut, many Americans 401K's have increased enough for them to retire. Those plans may need to change and they will have to continue working.
I pulled most of my money from the stock market not too long ago betting that this thing tanks and the stock market goes on a downturn. Pass the popcorn, this wasn't a move I made lightly and I've only made moves like this about once every ten years or so as otherwise I'm a buy and hold type investor.
The Alabama GOP defeat also means that GOP House and Senate members are less likely to automatically side with Trump on everything. Before they might have sided with Trump so they wouldn't lose support of voters. Now they realize that there isn't as much voter support for Trump's agenda as there was 12 months ago.
This doesn't bode well for Trump. Especially if impeachment/removal from office votes come before the House/Senate respectively.
Before they might have sided with Party over Country, for fear of being voted out of office next election. Now they have a bit more freedom.
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