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"A record 7 million Americans are 90 days late on their auto loan payments, an economic red flag
When car loan delinquencies rise, it is usually a sign of significant duress among low-income and working-class Americans."
We already know Real Estate has slowed down in many areas. GDP, even with the borrowed money and Fed stopping their interest rate adjustments, is expected to level or drop (Vanguard says 2% by the end of the year).
Oh, speaking of Vanguard, they have adjusted their estimated return - of the entire market - from 8% to 5% per year for the next DECADE.
Of course, it goes without saying that the market has been soft for over a year and that the deficit is soaring.
I don't see a Great Recession, but being as we haven't got out of the last one altogether this is not good news for many million of Americans. If 7 million car loans are behind the eight ball, that's saying something.
"A car loan is typically the first payment people make because a vehicle is critical to getting to work, and someone can live in a car if all else fails."
One would have to guess that many (most?) of the people who cannot afford a car payment are not the upper middle class or above...in other words, it is likely they represent a lot of the "forgotten man and woman". IMHO, of course. I don't know anyone personally who can't make their car payments, although I see a LOT of people in my volunteer efforts that can't even afford a car at all.
"The New York Fed said that there were over a million more “troubled borrowers” at the end of 2018 than there were in 2010, when unemployment hit 10 percent and the auto loan delinquency rate peaked"
WOW. A million more. I wonder if Trump fans are going to broadcast that number?
"A record 7 million Americans are 90 days late on their auto loan payments, an economic red flag
When car loan delinquencies rise, it is usually a sign of significant duress among low-income and working-class Americans."
We already know Real Estate has slowed down in many areas. GDP, even with the borrowed money and Fed stopping their interest rate adjustments, is expected to level or drop (Vanguard says 2% by the end of the year).
Oh, speaking of Vanguard, they have adjusted their estimated return - of the entire market - from 8% to 5% per year for the next DECADE.
Of course, it goes without saying that the market has been soft for over a year and that the deficit is soaring.
I don't see a Great Recession, but being as we haven't got out of the last one altogether this is not good news for many million of Americans. If 7 million car loans are behind the eight ball, that's saying something.
"A car loan is typically the first payment people make because a vehicle is critical to getting to work, and someone can live in a car if all else fails."
One would have to guess that many (most?) of the people who cannot afford a car payment are not the upper middle class or above...in other words, it is likely they represent a lot of the "forgotten man and woman". IMHO, of course. I don't know anyone personally who can't make their car payments, although I see a LOT of people in my volunteer efforts that can't even afford a car at all.
"The New York Fed said that there were over a million more “troubled borrowers” at the end of 2018 than there were in 2010, when unemployment hit 10 percent and the auto loan delinquency rate peaked"
WOW. A million more. I wonder if Trump fans are going to broadcast that number?
"Serious-delinquency flows, a warning bell for economists because they can prelude defaults, spiked in the third quarter for student debt and remained there in the fourth quarter, with 9.1 percent of the $1.5-trillion total debt seriously delinquent."
"borrowing rose including that of credit cards, which at $870 billion matched its pre-crisis peak in 2008."
If people had so much money from tax reform, higher wages, etc....why would this be?
" younger borrowers are struggling most acutely to afford their auto loans," said Joelle Scally,"
1. I believe the info gained from people who actually see the data.
2. SOME wealthy people may stiff contractors and the like...or be slow pay...but they usually will not be slow on automatic payments or on anything that would hurt their credit scores.
It makes sense that most wealthier car payments are automatic deduct...and they wouldn't be 90+ days behind.
You'd be surprised how many people in the middle and upper middle class miss car payments.
We live in a culture where we live above our means and then play the victim and blame everyone else when our poor choices backfire.
I probably would be surprised (always assume people are thrifty) ....but it's hard to imagine that 90+ days would be the result of same - especially when the Fed says it is younger buyers (meaning, to me, not generally the upper middle class yet).
Things haven't been great for my crowd of mostly upper middle....but none of them are short a couple hundred bucks for 3 or 4 months in a row.
The data is not saying "people are buying BMW's they can't afford" but rather "a car is needed to do anything else (work, etc.) in most cases so it is troubling when people cannot afford that".
"Serious-delinquency flows, a warning bell for economists because they can prelude defaults, spiked in the third quarter for student debt and remained there in the fourth quarter, with 9.1 percent of the $1.5-trillion total debt seriously delinquent."
"borrowing rose including that of credit cards, which at $870 billion matched its pre-crisis peak in 2008."
If people had so much money from tax reform, higher wages, etc....why would this be?
Great, you are calling out obama.....from your own link..
Quote:
It has risen consistently since 2013
Another from your link...
Quote:
These flows have also been rising since 2012 for auto loans,
"Serious-delinquency flows, a warning bell for economists because they can prelude defaults, spiked in the third quarter for student debt and remained there in the fourth quarter, with 9.1 percent of the $1.5-trillion total debt seriously delinquent."
"borrowing rose including that of credit cards, which at $870 billion matched its pre-crisis peak in 2008."
If people had so much money from tax reform, higher wages, etc....why would this be?
I'm guessing that there will be many people who will put their unexpected tax bills on credit cards because we know the majority of Americans don't have extra money laying around to cover it. They were expecting their refunds to go towards paying down their Christmas purchases and they'll be adding to their debt instead.
Could care less I drive a 90 f150 and a 90 jeep with a carb.Paid cash for both and do my own wrenching.What the heck is an airbag? I heard when they go off they kill you with shrapnel .My truck has a bumper sticker that says No passenger side airbag.
Great, you are calling out obama.....from your own link..
But dammit....it's all because of trump.....
Summary of your post - it's not happening? Do I have that right?
I don't think I mentioned Trump in the OP...but let me look. NOPE. I didn't....although the last line asks whether those who believe him when he says "best economy ever" will take this seriously.
I don't relish my losses in the market...and I, even more, don't relish young people not able to afford cars or education or houses. These are not good things.
See if you can tamp down your TDS and consider economics. It will be here long after Trump is unable to brag about how Great things are.
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