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Finally, someone who thinks with his brain instead of his emotions. You don't have to like Trump to know that China's been ripping off America and many other Western Countries for decades now. We've been letting them get away with it. Negotiating with someone who's robbing you blind doesn't work.
It is a double edged sword. You can't win as a civilization over the long hall with a poor balance of trade, and it is absolutely true that there is a moral issue here, as the Chinese are thieves of intellectual property. Also, tariffs make some of our businesses more competitive, as they don't have to compete with Chinese slave labor. Finally, there are some things that we should be producing as a national defense consideration, anyway. We don't want to go to war with China when they are producing our steel, much less our tanks.
On the other hand, a trade war is going to produce massive temporary pain, and yes, restricted trade does shrink the pie overall so that the entire world hurts. Also, we should not forget that China owns a great deal of our debt, and we have no recourse if they dump it.
We allowed ourselves to get in a very lousy situation. I support Trump on this, but I have no argument for the farmer who watches his soybeans rot, the average family who has to pay and extra $1000 for a new vehicle, or Johnny Punch-clock watching his 401K crash with the stock market.
One of four things will happen:
1. This is going to work and make Trump one of the top five presidents ever
2. It will hurt for awhile and then the good effects will somewhat mitigate the bad
3. Trump will blink and everything will go back to normal
4. It will be a disaster and cost him a second term
No one really knows, because China cheats a lot on their numbers and it is hard to say how much economic pain they can stand without a revolution. But those who guess right are going to thump their chests.
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