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You've got to wonder with so poor personal favorability polls (better policy polls), how the hell does he fill large stadiums with so many maga-redhatters.
Polarization. A candidate could be hated by 80% of the electorate, and still draw enormous, fawning crowds.
In the modern political climate, blandness is probably the worst offense. A candidate must be memorable, provocative, controversial, dramatic. This holds regardless of ideology. "Adult" candidates just aren't sufficiently edgy or entertaining, even if they have better or more workable ideas.
AZ will stay red at least another 12 years. Minnesota could flip to red. Small as it is, NH may flip to red also. Both were ultra close in 2016.
As for Rust belt, Trump just needed either 1 of Mi or Pa in 2016. The other was gravy on top. With any one, he has 270. Either w/o Wi still got him to 270.
Pa & Wi IMO will stay red. Obama masked a Pa DNC problem, by getting Philly voters out in numbers which no Dem ever saw, nor will it happen again. HRC got a Philly turnout like Kerry, Gore, & Bubba, and western rural Pa discovered their power, so they will return in huge numbers. Pa is more rural than urban in mindset than libs like to admit. It was not natural for Pa not to be tilting just as solid Red Ohio did.
Dems need to be on bended knee trying to win a few wwc deplorables back. 99% of them are gone to Team Red forever. They make up the Rust belt & Pa plurality. Can't get squashed by them and win states they have huge pluralities in.
Arizona is pretty much polled that they don't like Trump. It could be because Trump hasn't done enough as well as those that just don't like him or his policies. I don't like him and I didn't before he ran and I certainly I don't like his policies which are quite frankly a step backwards.
Trump didn't win Pennsylvania or Michigan by much, I showed that. Ohio was far more of a Trump win. Those Stein votes or Democrat stay at home because Hillary is inevitable votes could come into play in 2020. Perhaps the Democrats are Berniecrats, perhaps they didn't like Hillary but didn't like Trump either. It is hard to say. Could they stay red, sure. The thing is, Trump NEEDS to hold on to them. I don't see Trump gaining any state, so he'll need to campaign to keep states. An incumbent only does that typically if they are looking to lose. I
Ohio may not be a factor is Trump loses Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Arizona just don't like Trump. Arizona could very well be a toss up and a blue Senate state. That I would attribute though to Kelli Ward, the AZ GOP leader.
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Originally Posted by fusillirob1983
I agree with most of this, as every Jill Stein voter literally could've saved Hillary. That said, there was no shortage of people that stayed home in 2016 in MI, WI, and PA large metros that didn't stay home in 2012.
Not really, Hillary suffered from the stay at home vote that assumed she was inevitable and didn't vote for that very reason.
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Originally Posted by staywarm2
Surely rural farmers in these states would not want the guy (Trump) who destroyed their livelihood and put them on welfare to be the next guy in charge. Surely these rural types are not that dumb?
It depends if they put policy over profits. I think 2020 might be a coffee table election. People may not be better off and when the perception is that they aren't, Trump is doomed. Then again I didn't think people were better off with Obama rather than Romney either...
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Originally Posted by Volobjectitarian
Don't feel like listening to that idiot to hear is specific reasons, but generally, he is right. If the election were held today, Trump would win, and the reasons would be really simple.
First, he's the incumbent, and they start off with a massive advantage in TV time, fundraising, focus, message, etc.
Second, Americans don't typically switch horses midstream. And I know people say this is the singular, unprecedented incumbent who defies that rule, but they said he exact same thing about Obama, and Dubyah, and Clinton, and Reagan, and.... Point being, in the hysterical world of American politics, "history" is a period of about the last 2-4 years, and anything before that is unknowable void. So it feels unprecedented, but watching from the nonpartisan, historically knowledgeable sound booth...trust me, it isn't.
Third, the winning Democrat strategy is a sober, centrist, "only_adult_in_the_room" platform, which exactly every viable candidate has either abandoned entirely (everyone other than Biden) or cannot pull off because of being senile/insane (Biden).
Moore knows, as does anyone with eyes who is willing to see, that the DNC is counting votes incorrectly. Dem_Nominee_01 gets 40-45% of the vote no matter what. Republican_Nominee_01 get another 40-45% of the vote no matter what. The votes that win the election are the 10-20% that don't go one way or the other no matter what. The top three planks of the leading candidates - more illegal immigration, more free stuff with huge price tags, taking away Constitutionally protected rights - do not poll well among that 10-20% undecided cohort.
Sure, they may fix/alter that platform a bunch between now and next November, as well as remember who and what it is they are running against, but right now, today...they lose this election by a bigger margin than 2016, and big enough that only 1984 is a bigger beatdown.
Incumbents have an advantage. Yes, they typically do. However Bush Sr. and Carter both lost due to economic issues when they ran as an incumbent. I don't see how economic issues are key in 2020, even if it is the coffee table economics. I don't think people will say they are truly better off in 2020 than they were in 2016 due to increased from tariffs. Those are hitting home.
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