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Old 03-26-2009, 12:20 AM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
2,553 posts, read 2,434,984 times
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Many critics argue that FDR's "New Deal" actually prolonged the great depression and WWII was the real reason the economy improved. Unemployment was at 25% when FDR took office and eventually dropped to 14.3% with the New Deal but, rose to 19% during the mini recession of 1937-38, before settling back down again to 14% prior to WWII. Once WWII started unemployment dropped all the way down to 2%.

My point is this, if that was the case back then when everything was made in America by hand (manual labor), what's going to happen in today's America where so many jobs have been replaced by technology, imported goods and more recently out-sourcing. When money was set aside to build a bridge or repair a road back then, because of the amount of man power necessary (roads were built with picks and shovels back then) , a large number of people would become employed for each project. Now, miles of highway can be built with a relatively small number of workers. The money that was once spent of labor is now spent on leasing large pieces of equipment to do the job that many used to do. When something was built on an assembly line, not only was it built by hand (employing many) but, all of it's components were also built by hand as well (and they were built some where in America).

Even if you feel FDR's policies back then were a success, when it comes to government spending for job creation, how much will it work today?
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Old 03-26-2009, 12:30 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
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interesting look at things. It also begs to question, how much sooner would the recession had hit if not for the billions in war spending since 2001?
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Old 03-26-2009, 12:31 AM
 
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An interesting question.
I do believe FDR's policies were a success.

I'll give an optimistic answer.
I assume that many of these projects are less expensive than they were 70 years ago after adjusting for inflation, due in part to the factors you mentioned (better equipment). I hope this means we'll be able to accomplish much more as a result (less capital spent per project, more projects). Same number of jobs created? Hard to say - I haven't found a good source for the number of jobs created during the new deal (I did read 1.8 million jobs, but that figure came with a caveat - jobs created indirectly were not included).
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Old 03-26-2009, 12:43 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nrfitchett4 View Post
interesting look at things. It also begs to question, how much sooner would the recession had hit if not for the billions in war spending since 2001?
I've wondered that also - err, well, almost that.

How many jobs were created by the war spending in those years?
I could not find a good answer.
One of the top search results lead back to this forum, where there was a +1,000,000 jobs estimate - but in Iraq.
And Yahoo answers failed me again! Though someone did ask the question.
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Old 03-26-2009, 12:51 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
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but how many of those jobs in Iraq are by american citizens?
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Old 03-26-2009, 12:58 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nrfitchett4 View Post
but how many of those jobs in Iraq are by american citizens?
No idea.
My google skills fail me.
I've not seen a number from a source I like.
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Old 03-26-2009, 07:54 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by compJockey View Post
An interesting question.
I do believe FDR's policies were a success.

I'll give an optimistic answer.
I assume that many of these projects are less expensive than they were 70 years ago after adjusting for inflation, due in part to the factors you mentioned (better equipment). I hope this means we'll be able to accomplish much more as a result (less capital spent per project, more projects). Same number of jobs created? Hard to say - I haven't found a good source for the number of jobs created during the new deal (I did read 1.8 million jobs, but that figure came with a caveat - jobs created indirectly were not included).
I would think more expensive. When they built a highway back then, they used a lot of workers to build a two lane road. Today highways are multi-lane and have barriers, railings, dividers, lights and message board....in urban areas they have sound walls and are often elevated in some places and below ground level in others. Far fewer workers are needed because of the equipment (which is costly for a contractor to own or lease/rent) to build much larger highways, that much more expensive (after inflation) for the materials alone.

Wikipedia says the WPA employed a maximum of 3.3 million workers in November of 1938. You have to remember though, at that time the total U.S. population was about 1.3 million compared to now which is estimated at 3.05 million.

The WPA paid any where from $19/mo. to 94/mo. (for no more than 30 hours work per week) depending upon the region, urbanization and the skill level of each worker. If you assume 30 hours work per week, that works out to some where between .15 to .72 cents per hour (when adjusted for inflation $2.26 to $10.84 per hour). It's hard to say what the average pay was but, the minimum wage law started that same year in October and was set at .25 cents per hour (adjusted for inflation $3.76) and increased to .30 cents per hour (when adjusted $4.58) one year later. Just as a comparison, the minimum wage set for 7/09 is $7.25/hr. which adjusted for inflation works out to .48 cents/hr. in 1938 dollars, almost double what the minimum wage was then.

Another thing to remember is each worker employed today has specific skills (for the majority any way) that demand a much higher rate of pay than an unskilled laborer would be able to get. In addition, an employer must match the employees FICA contribution, pay for workman's comp, vacation & sick pay and also cover the cost (or a percentage) for any benefits given to each employee (and possibly their family), like health and dental coverage.
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Old 03-26-2009, 09:40 PM
 
2,661 posts, read 2,902,531 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno3314 View Post
I would think more expensive. When they built a highway back then, they used a lot of workers to build a two lane road. Today highways are multi-lane and have barriers, railings, dividers, lights and message board....in urban areas they have sound walls and are often elevated in some places and below ground level in others. Far fewer workers are needed because of the equipment (which is costly for a contractor to own or lease/rent) to build much larger highways, that much more expensive (after inflation) for the materials alone.
There's only one reason to have expensive equipment - because it saves money and time.

At least, I wouldn't pay big bucks for something I continually lose money on - I'd go back to the manual way of doing thing if that saved me money. Its all about the bottom line.
Quote:
Wikipedia says the WPA employed a maximum of 3.3 million workers in November of 1938. You have to remember though, at that time the total U.S. population was about 1.3 million compared to now which is estimated at 3.05 million.
Multiply by 100.
Quote:
The WPA paid any where from $19/mo. to 94/mo. (for no more than 30 hours work per week) depending upon the region, urbanization and the skill level of each worker. If you assume 30 hours work per week, that works out to some where between .15 to .72 cents per hour (when adjusted for inflation $2.26 to $10.84 per hour). It's hard to say what the average pay was but, the minimum wage law started that same year in October and was set at .25 cents per hour (adjusted for inflation $3.76) and increased to .30 cents per hour (when adjusted $4.58) one year later. Just as a comparison, the minimum wage set for 7/09 is $7.25/hr. which adjusted for inflation works out to .48 cents/hr. in 1938 dollars, almost double what the minimum wage was then.
And yet still lower than it was 30 years ago, after adjusting for inflation.
Quote:
Another thing to remember is each worker employed today has specific skills (for the majority any way) that demand a much higher rate of pay than an unskilled laborer would be able to get. In addition, an employer must match the employees FICA contribution, pay for workman's comp, vacation & sick pay and also cover the cost (or a percentage) for any benefits given to each employee (and possibly their family), like health and dental coverage.
Well, you've really killed my optimism.
I kid.

I'm sure that someone has done the math - but we're just guessing for now.
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Old 03-26-2009, 09:41 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,059 posts, read 12,967,105 times
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Enough of this.

Austrian economists say the New Deal prolonged the depression. Voodoo Keynesian witchdoctors say it didn't.
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Old 03-26-2009, 09:50 PM
 
2,661 posts, read 2,902,531 times
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Haha, ok View.
Because you said so and are so influential, I'll stop believing reality.
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