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Originally Posted by fatchance2005
No, I'm just another victim of the wonderful educational system that once existed in this country. The sun operates in 11 year cycles between a high level of activity and virtually none. This has been known since the invention of the telescope. In the 1950's we had a thing called the IGY (International Geophysical Year), which was an international effort to expand the boundaries of scientific knowledge. It was so successful they decided to continue another year, and they named that one the IQSY (International Quiet Sun Year), as that year marked the 1st year of the "quiet" portion of the Sun cycle. People often muddle this in with something called the Milankovitch Theory, having to do with wobbles in the earth's axis producing ice ages. Any or all solar based theories have two problems. One is that the levels of energy involved are tiny compared to what's required to explain ice ages or global warming. The other is that it's a bad fit to the historic record. But if we disregard both of those things it still has the temperature headed in the opposite direction as what is observed.
No the earth has not been 10 degrees warmer, not during human existence at least. That statement is often made in relation to the medieval warming period, an event that concatenated with the Little Ice Age. The rallying cry is "They had Vinyards in Britain" and similar things as "proof" it was 10 degrees warmer than today. Well they have vinyards in Britain today. Both the Little Ice Age and the medieval warming period were brief (geologically) and were regional, not global events. The cause is believed to be redirection of major Atlantic currents caused by Ice Floes blocking key straits, like the straits of Newfoundland. This is being studied closely today, as when some of the major Antarctic ice shelves that are disappearing now are gone the major cold ocean currents that currently cool Southeast Asia will also be gone.
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Ten degrees was just an arbitrary number, I did not think people would bicker over seven, ten or even twelve degrees. How much warmer then today must it have been for Greenland to be as green as it was claimed during the height of the Vikings era?
Hundreds of years was brief? And regional, as in from north America to Greenland? And you get this information from where, tree rings? Maybe from the the twenty foot high birch tree stumps that were excavated from the area in Greenland where the Vikings settled?
Maunder minimum was a lot longer then the eleven year cycle, that is what some people say we could be in for again, but a Dalton type event is more and more becoming the most likely scenario. The only way I see us coming close to a Maunder type event is if SC 24 remains weak and or it is weak and then Cycle 25 is almost totally inactive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatchance2005
Humans evolved at the peak of the last ice age. The temperature at that time was around 10 degrees cooler than it is now. It has warmed ever since. Global warming is a deviation above that well known well defined line. The Neanderthals were better adapted to colder temperatures than we were, and died out. Humans function best at a temperature of about 40 degrees, which was roughly the global average when we appeared.
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What global warming deviation are you even talking about? The warming we had in the early to mid 1990s? They were calling it a new ice-age in the 1970s, and you were the one that brought up
"The sun operates in 11 year cycles between a high level of activity and virtually none." From the 1970s to the early to mid 1990s is in keeping with your 11 year cycle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatchance2005
The temperature has risen 4 degrees or more above the global mean as it was before industrialization five times in the past. On all of those occasions all higher forms of life went extinct, along with most simpler forms. It took on average 10,000 years for nature to effect that great a temperature change. We have accomplished half of it in less than 100 years.
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Were we supposed to stay in the same climate as the LIA? Is that the norm you think we should be in, sitting on the knife's edge of the last LIA?
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatchance2005
The use of the word "theory" in science has nothing to do with the amount of proof, or evidence, or the degree of certainty. In laymans terms it means the best description we have now, as well as less likely descriptions. Einstein's Theory of General Relativity gives us the definition of gravity we use today. It is accurate over the full scale of the universe as we observe it, but not over the full scale of its lifetime as we imagine it to be. It is much more accurate than Newton's "Law" of Gravity, which we now view as a special case of General Relativity (a theory). Newton still works well within the special case, like shooting artillery. The term "law" is rarely used in science today outside of mathematics. Since the emergence of the Uncertainty Principle and Plancks Constant it is generally acknowledged that there is no such thing as absolute proof of anything. Hence the use of the word "theory" has nothing to do with whether a thing is believed to be true, or how much confidence we have that it is true. "Global Warming Theory" is simply the body of data that has been accumulated by science supporting predictions made in the 1800's that CO2 and other greenhouse gases will make the earth warmer.
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Your theory is only that CO2 is a green house gas, not how effective it is at actually forcing the climate temperature.
Glaciers in Norway, the Himalayas, and Canada for example are also building up.
http://www.iceagenow.com/Glaciers_in...wing_Again.htm
http://www.iceagenow.com/Glaciers_in..._expanding.htm
http://www.iceagenow.com/Glaciers_gr...t_mountain.htm
Arctic sea ice is also recovering...
http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_ind...timeseries.png
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