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Seeing most economists are predicting that unemployment will remain at 10% for most of 2010, I wonder how the "banner" Christmas shopping of next year will happen?
"The predictions for year-end 2010 unemployment ranged between 8.5% and 9.5%."
2010 Economic Predictions from the Experts | Pebble Creek Partners (http://pebblecreekpartners.com/blog/2009/12/2010-economic-predictions-from-the-experts/ - broken link)
The real answer though is that the 80+% of the workforce who HAVE jobs will be more willing spend because as the unemployment rate drops THOSE people who ARE employed will be less fearful of losing their jobs - and thus more willing to spend money. In fact, after 2 years of being relative "tightwads" I suspect many, many people will want to celebrate the fact that they made it through the recession OK and things appear to be returning to normal. This is called "pent up demand" and it's pretty well documented in recoveries from previous recessions. And EVEN right now there is ALREADY a lot of "pent up demand" building and folks suffering from "frugility fatigue". They are not going to stay "cheap" forever.
As I said, I suspect next Christmas will pretty big.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 12-28-2009 at 01:42 PM..
Keep in mind that if the unemployment rate gets down to that 8.5% by the end of next year that it would represent nearly a 2% drop in a year - that's a drop that's roughly equivalent to the increase that's occured all this year - you know, the one the Wingnuts keep screaming about?
Actually both of those can work FOR a housing recovery - pushing them to go ahead and buy BEFORE the tax credits end and BEFORE interest rates go up - which in turn can result on others deciding to buy too as sales surge and they begin to perceive that bottom has arrived and that there is no better time to buy.
Ken
Yes it can create the frenzy as we lead up to the tax credit deadline and the increase in mortgage rates.
Thats like asking why one retail store sales could/would be up, and others down..
I disagree.
There is very little difference between Visa and Mastercard.
They are both carried by consumers, and either one is just as likely to be used as the other.
In contrast, Retailers are unique, in that they each decide what products to sell, and how much to charge.
So Retailers have to make management decisions which affect their sales, and one retailer's sales can vary significantly from another similar retailer based on different management. Just look at Ford and GM for an example. Or better still ... Ford and Honda.
Credit Card companies just have to get you to carry their card, and it's then up to the consumer to decide when to use it.
So during the shopping season, you are just as likely to pull out one credit card as any other card (Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Discover, etc.) depending on which one(s) you like using the most.
It's not like there is some major difference between different credit cards.
It's whichever card suits you at the moment, and which card(s) the retailer will accept, and what other factors (reward points, extended warranties, etc.) the credit card gives you that makes you choose one over the other.
So if Visa sales are up, it's likely Mastercard sales will be up as well, along with Amex and Discover ... probably all in similar percentages.
It truly is fascinating to see the pretzel logic applied by pghquest and Sign when faced with good economic news. Did you spend your 401(k) on ammunition and K-rations or something?
Hello? Are liberals so excited about possible good economic news that they will IGNORE facts? Yes, yes they will.
Its a CREDIT card company reporting increased transactions, but what the heck does this have to do with reality?
Charge, Charge, and more Charge....that is what America is doing now...Hey why have any personal responsibility...we have bailed EVERYONE out...Don't worry we are out of the recession (Ha Ha Ha).......C'mon wake up guys!!!!
The 3.9% is between 2009 and 2008. But don't forget that between 2008 and 2007 the loss was 50%. Yes it's up, but it's up against the worst year ever (2008) for Christmas shopping.
This might be another indication that we've hit bottom.
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