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View Poll Results: Which city do you think will be getting Amazon HQ2?
Raleigh (Triangle area) 73 24.17%
Charlotte 6 1.99%
Austin 33 10.93%
Pittsburgh 16 5.30%
NYC Area (NY/NJ) 8 2.65%
Philly 5 1.66%
Detroit 6 1.99%
Miami 1 0.33%
Atlanta 62 20.53%
Boston 24 7.95%
Somewhere else 68 22.52%
Voters: 302. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-24-2017, 01:01 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
6,656 posts, read 5,592,274 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BC1960 View Post
It has lots of competitors...notice all those stores when you drive home. Not to mention Ebay, Walmart, etc., etc.
I guess we'll see in a few years! I don't claim to see the future.......just my personal concerns.

(I say this as a millennial who has an Amazon Prime account and hasn't bought anything from eBay or any physical locations in months because of Amazon and free 2 day shipping/same day in some cases now. They've got me hooked - along with a bunch of other Americans I suspect as well.)
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Old 10-24-2017, 01:06 PM
 
326 posts, read 385,080 times
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Originally Posted by BC1960 View Post
Thats a good point. Its a relatively easy matter to run a cost/benefit analysis and determine what the costs and benefits will be. Lots of governments do just that; Mecklenburg County does one on every project.

Generally, NC is pretty conservative with its incentives. Thats one reason we have no chance of landing HQ2.
While it's relatively easy to run a cost/benefit analysis, we know it's much harder to run an accurate cost/benefit analysis...and you never know if you were accurate or not until after the facts have played out.

I think the NCGA has been pretty conservative with its incentives because of the uncertainty in the cost/benefit analyses and their distaste for risk, including times I wish they would have been more aggressive.
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Old 10-24-2017, 01:17 PM
 
6,799 posts, read 7,384,076 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tkeru408 View Post
While it's relatively easy to run a cost/benefit analysis, we know it's much harder to run an accurate cost/benefit analysis...and you never know if you were accurate or not until after the facts have played out.

I think the NCGA has been pretty conservative with its incentives because of the uncertainty in the cost/benefit analyses and their distaste for risk, including times I wish they would have been more aggressive.
But if the cost/benefit analysis shows good coverage, and as long as the incentives are structured so that they are paid annually, after the company pays its taxes, and the incentive is based on a percentage of that, then the risk is extremely low. And by doing multiple projects the risk gets even lower.

I think the GA's coolness towards incentives is more about politics and political philosophy than risk aversion.
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Old 10-24-2017, 01:18 PM
 
6,799 posts, read 7,384,076 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pierretong1991 View Post
I guess we'll see in a few years! I don't claim to see the future.......just my personal concerns.

(I say this as a millennial who has an Amazon Prime account and hasn't bought anything from eBay or any physical locations in months because of Amazon and free 2 day shipping/same day in some cases now. They've got me hooked - along with a bunch of other Americans I suspect as well.)
LOL, so you're opposed to Amazon's business model and concerned about their impact on other companies but you exclusively shop through them? Wait, what?
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Old 10-24-2017, 01:23 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
6,656 posts, read 5,592,274 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BC1960 View Post
LOL, so you're opposed to Amazon's business model and concerned about their impact on other companies but you exclusively shop through them? Wait, what?
Haha I never said I wasn't a hypocrite. Just making some general statements as to where I see Amazon going in the future. Obviously as a consumer, I like saving money and convenience which Amazon provides. I do admit though that I am contributing to the problem and I'm not the only person doing so (especially among us younger folks).
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Old 10-24-2017, 01:26 PM
 
6,799 posts, read 7,384,076 times
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Originally Posted by pierretong1991 View Post
Haha I never said I wasn't a hypocrite. Just making some general statements as to where I see Amazon going in the future. Obviously as a consumer, I like saving money and convenience which Amazon provides. I do admit though that I am contributing to the problem and I'm not the only person doing so (especially among us younger folks).
Change begins at home.
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Old 10-24-2017, 01:32 PM
 
326 posts, read 385,080 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BC1960 View Post
But if the cost/benefit analysis shows good coverage, and as long as the incentives are structured so that they are paid annually, after the company pays its taxes, and the incentive is based on a percentage of that, then the risk is extremely low. And by doing multiple projects the risk gets even lower.

I think the GA's coolness towards incentives is more about politics and political philosophy than risk aversion.
Good points about 1) reducing the risk by doling out the incentives in annual tranches and 2) diversifying the risk through multiple projects. I agree with you that the NCGA's current position is based as much or more on politics as it is on financial acumen regarding risk aversion. All told, I find Raleigh to be a longshot for HQ2 and I think it's probably in the best interest of the area that HQ2 not come here; even if it is a net profit for the local governments I believe it will be more than offset by net negatives such as increased gridlock, increased COL, etc.
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Old 10-24-2017, 01:36 PM
 
6,799 posts, read 7,384,076 times
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Originally Posted by tkeru408 View Post
Good points about 1) reducing the risk by doling out the incentives in annual tranches and 2) diversifying the risk through multiple projects. I agree with you that the NCGA's current position is based as much or more on politics as it is on financial acumen regarding risk aversion. All told, I find Raleigh to be a longshot for HQ2 and I think it's probably in the best interest of the area that HQ2 not come here; even if it is a net profit for the local governments I believe it will be more than offset by net negatives such as increased gridlock, increased COL, etc.
I agree about HQ2; it would overwhelm the Triangle to an almost unfathomable degree.
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Old 10-24-2017, 01:38 PM
 
Location: Fuquay Varina
6,454 posts, read 9,816,761 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BC1960 View Post
LOL, so you're opposed to Amazon's business model and concerned about their impact on other companies but you exclusively shop through them? Wait, what?
lol
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Old 10-24-2017, 02:58 PM
 
Location: Morrisville, NC
9,145 posts, read 14,768,819 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pierretong1991 View Post
It is somewhat sad that all of these cities are rolling out the red carpet to a company whose goal is to undermine other businesses - both large and small.
That is true to an extent, but in reality, every business is, for the most part trying to do the same. Unless you are in a rare position where there is tremendous growth in demand and not enough people to serve it, your work (and money) comes at the expense of someone else.

As a small business owner myself, I try to shop local for things when I can and will pay extra for items sometimes to do that. I’ve stopped using groupons and deals for local places I already go for the most part as well. On the other hand, there are many things I get from Amazon that I simply can’t get locally as places just can’t stock everything they can, and for the most part, if I used to be able to, it was at some large chain. I don’t see a huge issue with giving Amazon money instead of a chain.
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