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Old 04-16-2013, 09:12 PM
 
Location: NY/LA
4,664 posts, read 4,571,291 times
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The Redfin blog recently took a look at this:

Is this another real estate bubble or just a lot of hot air? - Redfin Real Estate Blog

In short, there are some key differences between this market and the great bubble. Certain local markets may be experiencing mini-bubbles
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Old 04-16-2013, 10:30 PM
 
4,241 posts, read 4,500,375 times
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While real estate is local, and you'd likely know your local Atlanta market better (there are always a few areas in markets which will retain value) you may want to watch the following to understand the macro housing situation. Certain markets with development constraints and gateway urban metros to immigration will do better.

Real Estate 101: Housing is only as worth as much as the income of the people living in it. With stagnant and depressed real wages the value of homes in many markets is being 'managed' by the banks who do NOT want to take the loss. So they keep the assets on their books at inflated values (shadow inventory) to remain solvent. Likewise municipal taxing / appraisal authorities want to keep values as inflated as possible to retain property tax revenues and even when they decline they will nickel and dime homeowners to maintain their budget revenues (such is government).

The Fed is trying to help 'manage' a potential implosion of housing bubble by keeping the interest rates suppressed, as well as to increase the value of US Bonds by creating the money ($85 Billion a month QE to infinity) to keep the Banks Solvent.

Fabian Calvo


Housing Market Manipulation: A Trillion Times Worse than Enron - Fabian Calvo - YouTube
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Old 04-17-2013, 06:16 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
2,541 posts, read 5,490,778 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkarch View Post
However there is a 3-7 year lag between foreclosure and being able to buy again so most of them are stuck renting for a few more years.
Actually, it's two years for the easier qualifiers such as VA.
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Old 04-17-2013, 07:48 AM
 
191 posts, read 455,538 times
Reputation: 186
I've been wondering, if you are in an area with a hot real estate market, as a buyer, what do you about houses that have been on the market for a very long time, like over 100 days? I have previously been told by realtors not to bother making any offer, because the sellers won't take anything less than 100% of asking, and that is why they are on the market so long. Is that the case? If the typical house is selling for about 100% of asking, but some houses have just been sitting, what % of asking would you offer. Obviously presuming that you like the house.
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Old 04-17-2013, 07:58 AM
 
3,826 posts, read 5,830,839 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie_paige View Post
I've been wondering, if you are in an area with a hot real estate market, as a buyer, what do you about houses that have been on the market for a very long time, like over 100 days? I have previously been told by realtors not to bother making any offer, because the sellers won't take anything less than 100% of asking, and that is why they are on the market so long. Is that the case? If the typical house is selling for about 100% of asking, but some houses have just been sitting, what % of asking would you offer. Obviously presuming that you like the house.
You should offer as much as you are willing to pay and think that house real price.

I saw houses in our market for over 100 days, but nobody is buying it because houses have some petential issues (sinkholes, chinese drywalls), but the sallers have "no information regarding these issues"...
Everything priced well is going under contract within few weeks with bidding wars...
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Old 04-17-2013, 08:33 AM
 
Location: IL
2,987 posts, read 5,264,434 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie_paige View Post
I've been wondering, if you are in an area with a hot real estate market, as a buyer, what do you about houses that have been on the market for a very long time, like over 100 days? I have previously been told by realtors not to bother making any offer, because the sellers won't take anything less than 100% of asking, and that is why they are on the market so long. Is that the case? If the typical house is selling for about 100% of asking, but some houses have just been sitting, what % of asking would you offer. Obviously presuming that you like the house.
My bro just bought a house that was on the market for over a year. I think the seller got to the point where he really wanted to sell and began negotiating, it was significantly below the asking price.
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:25 AM
 
5,075 posts, read 11,114,109 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pegotty View Post
Actually, it's two years for the easier qualifiers such as VA.
Sure, there are hard money loans as well, but overall the average person that has been foreclosed on has to wait some time before buying again. The vast majority of people in this category are still future buyers not current homeowners.
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Old 04-17-2013, 10:02 AM
 
276 posts, read 529,871 times
Reputation: 181
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie_paige View Post
I've been wondering, if you are in an area with a hot real estate market, as a buyer, what do you about houses that have been on the market for a very long time, like over 100 days? I have previously been told by realtors not to bother making any offer, because the sellers won't take anything less than 100% of asking, and that is why they are on the market so long. Is that the case? If the typical house is selling for about 100% of asking, but some houses have just been sitting, what % of asking would you offer. Obviously presuming that you like the house.
Those are usually the best houses to put an offer on and probably to negotiate a fair price. Even highly stubborn sellers become realistic after a year. Of course some have no obligation to sell and would rather wait for right offer. Many sellers in my area that were in market for an year or two, raised their prices this spring and sold at higher than what those houses were originally listed for. No harm in trying your luck if you like the house, just offer your best with no contingencies but inspection.
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Old 04-17-2013, 10:19 AM
 
65 posts, read 76,908 times
Reputation: 40
Every economist will tell you that our markets are cyclical; meaning every recession is followed by a Boom and Every boom is followed by a recession.So it is just a matter of time before we have another bubble, so make money will the boom lasts.That is how investor make money.
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Old 04-17-2013, 12:43 PM
 
97 posts, read 399,462 times
Reputation: 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Litlove71 View Post
Are you willing to gamble that interest rates will be low when you decide to purchase?
I have thought about that and it is a valid concern. If we could afford to build our dream home, that would be ideal because it wouldn't much matter how the market does in the short term.

Sounds like there are mixed opinions on this. One challenge is that I used to take action on my gut feelings without negotiation but now I am married and my wife doesn't really pay attention to the news, finances, etc... so convincing her of my little theory hasn't gone over so well.
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