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I was actually at a Monmouth County Board meeting yesterday in N.J. and of course they say it is a great time to buy. They do have a point...I see it this way, if you don't need to sell a home and are looking to buy and you have a generous down payment then grab a home now. There are some great deals now, people are wheelin and dealin. You may get lucky. Don't go overboard be practical in what you choose. One thing I can say is that if I were looking for a home now in my area, there are some amazing deals and with a big down payment chances are the bank will lend you the money if you are not taking out a large loan.
I think it's completely irresponsible for people to advocate that it's a great time to buy when most people's jobs are on the line and layoffs are impending. Jobs are being lost in grave quantities every single month and people want to say it's a great time to buy? If I lose my job 6 months from now, now I have a stupid house to sell that has depreciated and I can't sell it!
Look at how many people come on this forum crying and all stressed out because they can't sell their home. At least if you rent and move in 2 years it's less stressful. The average American stays in one place 6-7 years only. Why bother purchasing something just to up and move and sell also?
Unless you have a recession proof job like a doctor and you found the place you want to settle down for decades, and you are not in a hugely declining market then go ahead and buy. But for the rest of us I'd rather be on the sidelines with liquid cash on the offchance my husband and I both might not have jobs in the coming year.
EXACTLY. This is what most people don't realize. Not only is the job market extremely unstable and at a record high (unemployment), but we are still in a major declining market where prices are decreasing on a monthly basis. Only a fool would buy now.
A flood of foreclosures, falling home prices and rising unemployment numbers have increased the likelihood that home prices will continue to fall in the Bay Area and San Joaquin County through June 2010, according to a quarterly forecast released today.
The forecast, which does not predict how much prices will fall, is based on analysis of housing prices, jobs and economic data collected during the second quarter ending in June.
In the San Jose metropolitan area, there is an 87.1 percent chance that home prices will decline in the next two years, according to the Fall 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index from PMI Mortgage Insurance. The Walnut Creek company provides mortgage insurance, which protects lenders in the event that homeowners default on their loans."
Bloomberg October 2, 2008:
"Metro U.S. Home Prices Fall on Higher Foreclosures
Prices dropped 26.5 percent in San Diego from a year earlier, 24.1 percent in Miami, 17.9 percent in San Jose and 17.4 percent in Tampa, Florida, the report said."
Forbes October 7, 2008:
"America's Luxury Foreclosure Capitals
The San Jose-area ZIP 95148 has 44,401 residents and lands at No. 5 with 157 bank-owned properties."
I didn't say that prices didn't drop I said they did not go down very much. Houses are so over priced here that they will have to fall a lot more for people like me whose family income is under 100 thousand a year to ever consider buying a house. There are some condos in really undesirable areas that have dropped in the mid 200 but those are not places I would like to live. San Jose has a very far way to fall before there are any real deals to be had here. Most likely I will be moving back to Southern Ca where the houses are more affordable, that is if I can find a decent job. So thanks for the statistics, but they weren’t necessary to prove that San Jose still has too high of a cost of living and that rent is going up due to the demand from forclosures.
I saw a TV commercial from the national realtors association the other day touting that "now is a great time to buy !" and that historically, a home's value goes up and up. Can you believe the audacity from the NRA ? Now is the WORST time ever in a very very long time to buy. You have CNBC experts commentating and advising the public to RENT...that it's not safe to buy. Why ? Well, first of all we are in a major declining market and prices have a very long way to go before hitting bottom. Just the other day, there was breaking news that even NYC, which usually is not effected by declines in the market, is starting to show a decline itself. This a key indicator of what is going on and what is going to continue to place place. Second, people are losing their jobs left and right. It's outrageous. The credit crunch crisis has reared it's ugly head and businesses are struggling. People are being laid off left and right....no jobs = no money. No money = no qualified people to buy houses. Not only that, but those companies that ARE staying afloat are not offering raises. What you make is what you will continue to make for many years to come. Couple that with the high gas prices, food prices, health care costs....and it's a recipe for disaster for consumers. The LAST thing they need on a plate is an expensive home. One that they may not be able to afford in the years to come. I feel very very sorry for people that bought in 2003-2006. Thirdly, mortgages are hard to get...you need to be VERY well qualified in order for a lender to borrow you money. Most people are not. Houses are still too expensive for the average person to purchase. People are saving, hoarding their money. Some are even pulling their money out of the market (thanks Cramer !) So please....anyone that is the market to buy a home, DON'T do it. Your job may very well be in jeapordy and prices are still declining. Would you pay 5.00 for a gallon of milk knowing that in one week that same gallon would cost you 2.50 ? duh. Common sense people. Good luck to all in the crisis of ours and I encourage all of you to come visit the Business/Finance forums.
I was surfing a little... Back in October of 2008, HeyDade posted the above comments. Lot's of people said he was crazy. Some thought October of 08 was a great time to buy. As it turns out, his crystal ball was a little more accurate than others. If you bought in October, you lost 10%-15% in equity by jumping the gun.
Is NOW (July of 2009) a good time to buy??? My guess is, prices will bump up a little, unemployment will continue to rise and the interest rate will go up some to fight inflation which will cool off the market by winter. At best case IMHO, it will be stay low for a year or more. If I am a betting man, the low end of the market is close or at bottom and the middle to highend has more to go.
I was surfing a little... Back in October of 2008, HeyDade posted the above comments. Lot's of people said he was crazy. Some thought October of 08 was a great time to buy. As it turns out, his crystal ball was a little more accurate than others. If you bought in October, you lost 10%-15% in equity by jumping the gun.
Is NOW (July of 2009) a good time to buy??? My guess is, prices will bump up a little, unemployment will continue to rise and the interest rate will go up some to fight inflation which will cool off the market by winter. At best case IMHO, it will be stay low for a year or more. If I am a betting man, the low end of the market is close or at bottom and the middle to highend has more to go.
If you're going to stay put someplace for 30 years, now is always a good time to buy.
I see much further downside to go. If prices on the middle and high end keep falling, prices on the low end must fall as well. Why would anyone buy a 200k starter home if a middle market home costs 10% more?
I was surfing a little... Back in October of 2008, HeyDade posted the above comments. Lot's of people said he was crazy. Some thought October of 08 was a great time to buy. As it turns out, his crystal ball was a little more accurate than others. If you bought in October, you lost 10%-15% in equity by jumping the gun.
Is NOW (July of 2009) a good time to buy??? My guess is, prices will bump up a little, unemployment will continue to rise and the interest rate will go up some to fight inflation which will cool off the market by winter. At best case IMHO, it will be stay low for a year or more. If I am a betting man, the low end of the market is close or at bottom and the middle to highend has more to go.
Well it depends on the area and price range. In my area we are entering the "sweet spot" for bargain hunters. Prices have dropped a lot for my area, foreclosures and short sales are in play and there are some great deals out there, and interest rates are low. My clients locked a 4.875 yesterday AND got a great price on a house that was a relocation company holding.
Unless you are getting a high end foreclosure those homes are not particularly good deals in my area.
If you're going to stay put someplace for 30 years, now is always a good time to buy.
I see much further downside to go. If prices on the middle and high end keep falling, prices on the low end must fall as well. Why would anyone buy a 200k starter home if a middle market home costs 10% more?
I don't know if anyone can reliably "stay put" for 30 years anymore. Even 5-10 is an achievement.
Agree with what you say about low vs. middle vs. high though. I think that's a price wave that started on the low end and will wash back and forth from low to high at least once before prices settle. In my neck of the woods (which isn't even FL, CA, NV, MI, AZ) we've got more than a few $million+ listings that have eased to 20-50% off so far.
I still think there's a very good chance where we could have Japanese style housing deflation, with prices bleeding to death slowly over the next decade. I also think it's market by market. Any zipcode/home type with high inventory is screwed.
Fall will show what's really going on price-wise. This is still high buying season in a lot of areas.
Right now is a terrible time to buy in most markets. Prices are still declining and the economy is too unstable. Not only that, but in many areas of the U.S. you can save several hundred $$$ per month by renting a house similar to what you want to buy.
I was in the market to buy my first house, but I decided to wait and I'm so glad I did. My rent is only $500/month and I was looking at $1100-$1200/month for PITI to buy a decent house (only a few hundred more sq ft than the one I'm renting). People can look down at me all they want, but I'm saving a lot of money by renting! I'm using the money I am saving to pay off all my debt
It's funny that I can afford to rent a house in my neighborhood (a middle-class suburb) but buying in the exact same neighborhood would put me in the negative every month.
I agree with you totally.
We rent a 3b2b mobile on 8 wooded acres and pay only $500 rent versus buying the same thing for $150-$350,000 and would need 20% as a down payment. That would leave us broke for the next 40+ years (if we even lived that long)
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EXACTLY. This is what most people don't realize. Not only is the job market extremely unstable and at a record high (unemployment), but we are still in a major declining market where prices are decreasing on a monthly basis. Only a fool would buy now.
Back in October of 2008, HeyDade posted the above comments. Lot's of people said he was crazy. Some thought October of 08 was a great time to buy. As it turns out, his crystal ball was a little more accurate than others. If you bought in October, you lost 10%-15% in equity by jumping the gun.
My guess is, prices will bump up a little, unemployment will continue to rise and the interest rate will go up some to fight inflation which will cool off the market by winter. At best case IMHO, it will be stay low for a year or more. If I am a betting man, the low end of the market is close or at bottom and the middle to highend has more to go.
