Would you agree Portland hasn't yet hit bottom? (sales, housing, prices)

[sushi66]

I'm told Portland and Seattle didn't peak as much, and that its just in the last couple of months that things are starting to drop. Is this why I'm seeing homes in that area on the market for 3-4+ months? Are sellers still holding out that that they can get what they want, rather than what the market dictates they can get?

[HDL]

that Portland has NOT hit bottom, nor has Seattle. They are BOTH still frothy with much more correction to come (imo). But as far as your comment about Portland and Seattle not peaking as much, I disagree with that statement. IMO both OR and WA were late to the housing bubble party and as such, are both behind other cities / states (FL/NV/CA/AR) with the housing bubble popping and prices falling. Whereas I've seen places like Sacramento, CA appear to be at or relatively near bottom, Portland and Seattle 'probably' won't be near bottom for a couple more years. The home prices there are still very high for what you get compared to many other cities.

Originally Posted by sushi66

I'm told Portland and Seattle didn't peak as much, and that its just in the last couple of months that things are starting to drop. Is this why I'm seeing homes in that area on the market for 3-4+ months? Are sellers still holding out that that they can get what they want, rather than what the market dictates they can get?

[KCfromNC]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_oV8ecn5wrf...8+All+Data.jpg

It looks like the peak was later last summer, so the area's been declining for a bit more than 3-4 months. Prices look to be back to early-middle 2006 prices there after falling roughly 10% or so.

I don't see any evidence of a price bottom there, either in a return to the historical normal prices or in a decline in the rate of depreciation. Considering that sales are still decreasing year over year and inventory still going up, I'd say that they are just getting started with price declines. When inventory gets back in line with sales numbers, that's typically when prices begin to slow their decline and finally stabilize, but it looks like Portland isn't there yet.

Search in google for "Portland housing bubble" to see a blog with lots of data for the area.

[Silverfall]

The Portland market has been in a mild decline for more than 3-4 months now. Oregon tends to run about 6-12 months behind the rest of the country in terms of real estate trends. Homes were still peaking out here in spring 2007 when most other majors cities had started to slow down. Fall of 2007 is when we started to see inventories building and prices starting to correct. Many of our sellers seemed to hold out "hope" that the spring and summer markets of 2008 would rebound. When that didn't happen, sellers realized that they have to be more serious about selling. That is probably why you are hearing about the recent correction in pricing. We have seen it here in Salem as well. Some of the large luxury homes have drastically reduced their prices now that reality is starting to sink in.

3-4 months on the market isn't bad you know. It's normal. And yes...there are still many sellers out there that think Oregon is immune from the bubble because of the very sentiment you expressed "we didn't peak as high." Some sellers still interpret this to mean they can try and sell for 20% more than they did two years ago...

Good homes in good locations are still selling well and getting "top dollar." Great deals are selling well. It's the average homes trying to get top dollar that are sitting on the market for a while.