SF Murder Map Question (San Francisco, Stockton: crime rates, neighborhoods, school)

[TPSpecialist]

Hi all. I was browsing the murder map on the sf chronicle website. I have two questions regarding what I saw.

1) There aren't very many murders in the areas I am considering living (like 0-4 murders since 07). However, there are what seems to be staggering amounts of murders in 07 and 08, like near 100 per year. What are the odds of being randomly attacked/mugged in a good part of the city (marina, north beach, financial district) while being very safe (i.e. not walking around in the middle of the night, not going to seedy parts)? I come from a town that had maybe 2-3 murders last year.

2) I noticed there have only been 15 murders this year compared to like 97 murders in 2007 and 98 murders in 2008. I'd say this puts the city behind pace to reach the same levels. Projecting the numbers there will probably be between 45-60. Has there been a crackdown on crime or another reason why there haven't been as many murders this year?

I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

[rah]

Just a quick correction:

San Francisco had 100 murders in 2007, and 99 in 2008, according to both the FBI and the SFPD...the chronicle isn't too good on keeping their map completely accurate/up to date, though it is mostly complete. To give you a sense of what SF's murder rate is like, the city has averaged about 91 murders a year since 1985. That's not high for a US city this size, but it's not low either.

Anyways, you'll be fine in those areas, especially during the day. Robberies can happen anywhere though, and nice neighborhoods are no exception at all (they can actually be destinations for criminals since the residents have more money)...that's something you have to realize for most cities....I might guess it's even more true for SF, since the city is so compact (making it easy to get across the city, and making crime more concentrated overall).

But don't be alarmed...Obviously your chances of being mugged/attacked in a nice area are still very low, and they're way lower than in a high crime area. There are a few areas in SF where you would definitely want to watch your back, but the Marina, North Beach, and Financial District aren't any of them. The only possible exception would be the small area around Broadway and Columbus in North Beach, when all the drunk frat boys and thugs hang around the strip clubs there at night...and still it's really not that bad at all, at least for an experienced city person. To someone from some small town it could probably be pretty intimidating at times, but it's literally like a 2-3 block long area, not big at all.

As far as the 15 murders thing, that's a lot lower then the same time last year, when we had 30+ murders. The SFPD even admitted themselves that they don't know why it dropped off so much...so it seems that the drop is more due to chance, rather than anything the SFPD is doing. It happens...In 1993 SF had 133 murders. Just 4 years later, in 1997, we had only 59.

Finally, in 2007, out of all US cities with populations of 250,000 or higher, 30 had higher violent crime rates than San Francisco, and 40 cities had lower violent crime rates. We're right above the middle in that department.

[TPSpecialist]

Originally Posted by rah

Just a quick correction:

San Francisco had 100 murders in 2007, and 99 in 2008, according to both the FBI and the SFPD...the chronicle isn't too good on keeping their map completely accurate/up to date, though it is mostly complete. To give you a sense of what SF's murder rate is like, the city has averaged about 91 murders a year since 1985. That's not high for a US city this size, but it's not low either.

Anyways, you'll be fine in those areas, especially during the day. Robberies can happen anywhere though, and nice neighborhoods are no exception at all (they can actually be destinations for criminals since the residents have more money)...that's something you have to realize for most cities....I might guess it's even more true for SF, since the city is so compact (making it easy to get across the city, and making crime more concentrated overall).

But don't be alarmed...Obviously your chances of being mugged/attacked in a nice area are still very low, and they're way lower than in a high crime area. There are a few areas in SF where you would definitely want to watch your back, but the Marina, North Beach, and Financial District aren't any of them. The only possible exception would be the small area around Broadway and Columbus in North Beach, when all the drunk frat boys and thugs hang around the strip clubs there at night...and still it's really not that bad at all, at least for an experienced city person. To someone from some small town it could probably be pretty intimidating at times, but it's literally like a 2-3 block long area, not big at all.

As far as the 15 murders thing, that's a lot lower then the same time last year, when we had 30+ murders. The SFPD even admitted themselves that they don't know why it dropped off so much...so it seems that the drop is more due to chance, rather than anything the SFPD is doing. It happens...In 1993 SF had 133 murders. Just 4 years later, in 1997, we had only 59.

Finally, in 2007, out of all US cities with populations of 250,000 or higher, 30 had higher violent crime rates than San Francisco, and 40 cities had lower violent crime rates. We're right above the middle in that department.

Great info! Thanks a bunch. I'm expecting a bit of a culture shock. I have lived in Stockton in the past so I'm used to high crime areas and staying safe and all. I love the city and grad school and job opps in my particular field are pretty abundant still so I'm looking to make the leap sooner rather than later.

[redwoodlvr]

Contrary to popular belief, most murders are perpetrated by someone the victim knows. And another example, most gangbangers are shooting each other and not concerned about you unless you happen to be....gangbanging. If you live your life mapping out the least crime ridden areas in the world...well I wish you the best. Crime can happen everywhere and nowhere. Go figure, even by all american college preppy looks intelligent priviledged med student. I bet you would've moved into his hood without question. Focus on the positives and don't attract crime to yourself by fearing it. Tap into your common sense if you elect to live anywhere. Just my opinion. Best wishes.

[TPSpecialist]

Originally Posted by redwoodlvr

Contrary to popular belief, most murders are perpetrated by someone the victim knows. And another example, most gangbangers are shooting each other and not concerned about you unless you happen to be....gangbanging. If you live your life mapping out the least crime ridden areas in the world...well I wish you the best. Crime can happen everywhere and nowhere. Go figure, even by all american college preppy looks intelligent priviledged med student. I bet you would've moved into his hood without question. Focus on the positives and don't attract crime to yourself by fearing it. Tap into your common sense if you elect to live anywhere. Just my opinion. Best wishes.

Thanks for the reply! I already picked the areas in which I would like to live/frequent and I was just investigating what the safety situation looked like in the areas I will frequent the most (North Beach, Pac Heights, Marina, Nob Hill, Russian Hill, Financial District). Just a bit of due diligence. I'm not living my life mapping out the least crime ridden areas. I'm also interested in what the SFPD is doing to lower crime, as it is significantly lower than previous years. I appreciate your advice about focusing on the positives and not attracting crime by fearing it. I'm not planning on going Adrian Monk about it, haha, I just want to be relatively safe.

[E14]

the SFPD really isnt doing anything different
its a statistical anomaly

[TPSpecialist]

Originally Posted by E14

the SFPD really isnt doing anything different
its a statistical anomaly

This is what I've heard from other sources as well.

[Jonotastic]

Originally Posted by TPSpecialist

Hi all. I was browsing the murder map on the sf chronicle website. I have two questions regarding what I saw.

1) There aren't very many murders in the areas I am considering living (like 0-4 murders since 07). However, there are what seems to be staggering amounts of murders in 07 and 08, like near 100 per year. What are the odds of being randomly attacked/mugged in a good part of the city (marina, north beach, financial district) while being very safe (i.e. not walking around in the middle of the night, not going to seedy parts)? I come from a town that had maybe 2-3 murders last year.

2) I noticed there have only been 15 murders this year compared to like 97 murders in 2007 and 98 murders in 2008. I'd say this puts the city behind pace to reach the same levels. Projecting the numbers there will probably be between 45-60. Has there been a crackdown on crime or another reason why there haven't been as many murders this year?

I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

I believe most of the murders are bad drug deals gone wrong and things along those lines.

I went out at all times of the night, I never was worried in the areas you mentioned. I used to go out around Market Street and then walk to Osha Thai in the Tenderloin in the early AM for a late dinner or whatever you like to call it and never had issues.

I wouldn't be worried about it, don't look like a victim and don't get yourself involved in illegal activities and you will be good to go in any district (besides Hunters Point).

[Jonotastic]

Also keep in mind how high the homeless population is in San Francisco. I'm sure many of those murders occur between them as well. You'll love there!

[redwoodlvr]

Originally Posted by TPSpecialist

I'm not planning on going Adrian Monk about it, haha, I just want to be relatively safe.

I hear you! hahahaa. I hope you get settled somewhere fabulous.

Originally Posted by E14

the SFPD really isnt doing anything different
its a statistical anomaly

Very much speaking the truth.