WELL, It looks like it's "That Time of the Month" again (Sarasota: rental, insurance)

[wondermint2]

Originally Posted by wondermint2

*Update: Because the analog model definition says: "Similarity scores less than 5 indicate a very good match; similarity scores over 10 indicate poorer matches. As a result, unique or rare storms will inherently have larger scores than those that are less unique. The ten-best matches for each storm are retained and plotted."

And then on the graph it just says "Analog Ranking" and lists the past storms 1 through 10. So I'm not sure if the highest ranking is by best match or higher score (higher score would be a worse match). Thoughts? It's a bit unclear to me.

*Disclaimer: I'm not stating that this analog model is better or worse than the Euro or American spaghetti models. Refer to the NHC for official guidance.

I emailed professor Clark Evans asking him about this. I also asked him how his Analog Model performs compared to the other traditional spaghetti models. This was his response:

Hi Jack,

#1 is the best match with the lowest analog score. I've never validated the analogs' performance relative to the model guidance; however, I would expect it to not perform as well because the analogs have no knowledge of the current atmospheric conditions. They're meant primarily as a way of providing historical context.

Best regards,
-Clark

[wondermint2]

Originally Posted by wondermint2

I emailed professor Clark Evans asking him about this. I also asked him how his Analog Model performs compared to the other traditional spaghetti models. This was his response:

Hi Jack,

#1 is the best match with the lowest analog score. I've never validated the analogs' performance relative to the model guidance; however, I would expect it to not perform as well because the analogs have no knowledge of the current atmospheric conditions. They're meant primarily as a way of providing historical context.

Best regards,
-Clark

Thus IMO still too early to be overly concerned in Florida. Backing this sentiment up is that most of the traditional spaghetti models are still predicting Invest-95L makes a hard turn North before reaching Florida.

Mike's Weather Page
@tropicalupdate
·
24m
"Monday 12z EURO spaghetti models on Invest 95 and new area behind. Both showing high confidence of a tug north and curve."

See graphic here:

https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/s...95842491093001

[wondermint2]

Originally Posted by wondermint2

Thus IMO still too early to be overly concerned in Florida. Backing this sentiment up is that most of the traditional spaghetti models are still predicting Invest-95L makes a hard turn North before reaching Florida.

Mike's Weather Page
@tropicalupdate
·
24m
"Monday 12z EURO spaghetti models on Invest 95 and new area behind. Both showing high confidence of a tug north and curve."

See graphic here:

https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/s...95842491093001

This is the reason why currently almost all of the spaghetti models are predicting Invest 95-L makes a hard turn North well before it reaches Florida:

Andy Hazelton
@AndyHazelton (Associate Scientist at UM/CIMAS and NOAA AOML/HRD.)

"Seems likely #95L will be a strong hurricane in the SW Atlantic next week. Luckily for Florida, the 500-hPa pattern will be something we've seen a lot the last decade - ridge out west and trough out east. This acts as a "shield" keeping storms from approaching us from the East."

For the graph of this weather pattern:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/sta...33496607355288

[wondermint2]

Invest 95-L has become Tropical Depression Thirteen. The NHC has a cone out already. According to spaghetti models Florida landfall not looking likely at this juncture - but it's still early and things could change.

Dr. Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits

"Tropical Depression Thirteen (#TD13) has formed in the central Atlantic. Conditions are favorable for TD13 to become a strong hurricane during the next week as it tracks west-northwestward. Currently, the expectation is for TD13 to pass north of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico in 4-5 days, but these areas should monitor the progress of the storm closely."

See chart here:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/...96483646279853

[wondermint2]

Longboat Key takes stock of Hurricane Idalia flooding damage

For full article:

https://www.yourobserver.com/news/20...lias-flooding/

Water damage, transformer failures and beach erosion are among the issues Longboat Key faced due to flooding.

[wondermint2]

Holmes Beach gas station fuel tainted with water from Hurricane Idalia

For full article:

https://www.wfla.com/news/local-news...ne-idalia/amp/

After Anna Maria Island neighbors spent much of Hurricane Idalia worrying about whether or not their homes would flood (and some did), they didn’t think filling up at a local gas station would cause even more problems.

But Cheryl Perez’s son was driving to Tampa when his issues started.

“Got onto the Manatee Bridge,” Perez recalled. “He was at the hump on the top of the bridge when the car stalled. Calls me and asks me to please call the police.”

He had his truck towed to the local auto shop.

“The first thing they asked him was, ‘You didn’t happen to get gas at the Shell station, did you?’ And he said, ‘Yeah, about 15, 20 minutes ago,'” Perez said. “They said, ‘Oh, you’re the fifth or sixth car that’s called us. The cars have stalled after they’ve gotten gas.'”

The Shell station on Marina Drive in Holmes Beach had flooded during Idalia, and the storm surge covered nearly a foot off the ground. ATCO, Inc., the company that owns the gas station, confirmed to 8 On Your Side about one foot of water got in some of their underground tanks, which ATCO said impacted a couple hundred gallons sold.

“You come back here, they’ve got their tanks open,” Perez said. “You figure, it’s open, they should be fine.”

On Tuesday, the regular and midgrade gas options were signed off, preventing customers from using those — just premium.

“Especially right after the hurricane,” Perez said. “You’re stressed out as it is. We all had water damage, and you know, surges and things like that, and they have to come and have this on top of it.”

[wondermint2]

Here's Dr. Levi Cowan's video from today about Tropical Storm Lee (previously known as Invest 95-L and soon to be Hurricane Lee). Florida landfull not looking likely at this juncture.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WjuRZDOJDU

"Wednesday #TropicalTidbit video discussion on Tropical Storm #Lee, expected to track north of the #Caribbean as a powerful hurricane. Some impacts to the northeastern Caribbean islands this weekend from the southern side of Lee cannot be ruled out, so be prepared.

I spend more time in this video than I normally do discussing the long-range track forecast for #Lee, since so many people have been asking, but the big takeaway is that forecasts beyond 5 days have tremendous uncertainty. It's best to stay weather aware just in case!"

[wondermint2]

Not everyone with Hurricane forecasting experience is convinced that Tropical Storm Lee will make a hard turn North. But as of now those that don't think Hurricane Lee will make the hard turn North are in the minority. At this juncture that's what most spaghetti models are saying (a hard turn to the North in about 5 days). If I was a betting man I wouldn't bet on a Florida landfall at this juncture. But IMO out of prudence it's still a good idea to keep updated on the forecasts.


Eric Webb
@webberweather (Gov't meteorologist part of the weather industrial complex. UNCC & NCSU Alum)

https://twitter.com/webberweather/st...75572764930431

"If the hurricane continues to slow down, that may not necessarily be the case.

Sometimes, it's hard to see the forest through the trees in these situations.

The spread across the models is a few-several times larger than the mean N-NNE of #Lee at day 8-9. No real confidence whatsoever atm that a trough will actually be there to erode the ridge & lift #Lee northward"

[wondermint2]

'100 homes with major flooding damage': Sarasota County officials continue to assess storm surge damage

For full article:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...df9faef8&ei=50

Hurricane Idalia severely damaged areas far south of where the storm made landfall. Along the southwestern tip of Sarasota County, the storm surge washed roads away.

Sarasota County officials are still assessing all the damage done. And a challenge they're facing — getting there safely to see what needs repair. Some neighbors said this is the worst they've ever seen.

William Hilburn lives on the water on Manasota Key. He said the storm conditions weren't looking too severe on the eve of Hurricane Idalia's landfall. But in the early morning hours, things took a turn.

"About 1:30 in the morning, I could see the water actually running around my house and the water beading, splashing up on my glass which is about 65 or 70 feet from the gulf," Hilburn described.

Hilburn lives on Manasota Key Road. Huge sections of that are now washed away.

On Monday, county officials extended the county's state of emergency declaration for an additional 7 days.

"[There are] around 100 homes with major flooding damage," Emergency Services Director Rich Collins said. "And today, and tomorrow, they're looking at the public assistance side. So the roads and those things"

Coastal portions of Sarasota County saw an estimated three to four foot storm surge from Hurricane Idalia. Across the county, the damages are already looking to cost millions.

"So right now we're sitting at an estimated about $2.6 million worth of damage," Collins said.

Idalia made landfall far north of Manasota Key. Even though evacuation orders were in place, some still chose to ride it out.

" I didn't think it would hit here this bad because I figured it was we were it was headed north to Cedar Key and then wouldn't the band wouldn't be this far down," Hilburn said. "Next time. I will definitely leave"

County officials pointed to Idalia's rapid intensification, highlighting that even if you aren't in the path of a storm, the damages can still be extensive.

The Manasota Key Beach area was renourished in recent years. All of that sand brought in was washed away by Hurricane Idalia.

[wondermint2]

A new photo gallery from the Sarasota Herald-Tribune. I'm not sure if there is a paywall. I'm able to see it with my free registration.

Images of Hurricane Idalia beach impacts in Sarasota County

https://www.heraldtribune.com/pictur...ed/8393847001/