Where will transplants in Austin go to next when the bubble pops? (Houston: how much, buy)

[Tyryztoll]

Lotta towns have run this cycle. I remember in the 90's how Seattle was the place to go. Now the COL there is so high it's not even worth considering.

[redguard57]

I get what the OP's saying.

It's not like San Diego, Portland or Seattle have lost their "hip" vibe - it's still there in those places to a considerable degree. They're just not bargains anymore. For a while (ie: Portland in the mid 80s to late 90s), they were places where young hip people got halfway decent jobs, "new urbanist" quality of life, relatively low housing prices / rent.

You need several things that Austin's got - a core of "hipness" to build on, low to moderate CoL, liberal politics at least at the city or local level, some draw for creative-type or tech-type businesses to locate.

Nashville already is. I'd also say Salt Lake is well on its way.

Other candidates - I would guess also in the south, midwestern plains or mountain west because in the northeast and west the CoL is too high. I'll guess Tulsa, OK and Boise, ID as possibilities. Maybe Raleigh, NC or Richmond, VA. Also i think Charleston and Columbia SC have potential.

As for the north - I actually think Detroit will make a strong comeback eventually - there's too much cheap property to be had for it to be cheap forever but that'll be a while. Several places in PA are ripe for hipster takeover - Pittsburgh is already making moves and I think the Lehigh valley area is potential as well.

The west coast is pretty much tapped out. Maybe, mayyybe Olympia WA or Spokane WA. If there's any potential in California left, maybe Sacramento - which is still relatively affordable by west coast standards to my great surprise.

As for Texas? I actually do think San Antonio is trying to set itself up to be the next Austin.

[DeadSoul103]

Originally Posted by redguard57

I get what the OP's saying.

It's not like San Diego, Portland or Seattle have lost their "hip" vibe - it's still there in those places to a considerable degree. They're just not bargains anymore. For a while (ie: Portland in the mid 80s to late 90s), they were places where young hip people got halfway decent jobs, "new urbanist" quality of life, relatively low housing prices / rent.

You need several things that Austin's got - a core of "hipness" to build on, low to moderate CoL, liberal politics at least at the city or local level, some draw for creative-type or tech-type businesses to locate.

Nashville already is. I'd also say Salt Lake is well on its way.

Other candidates - I would guess also in the south, midwestern plains or mountain west because in the northeast and west the CoL is too high. I'll guess Tulsa, OK and Boise, ID as possibilities. Maybe Raleigh, NC or Richmond, VA. Also i think Charleston and Columbia SC have potential.

As for the north - I actually think Detroit will make a strong comeback eventually - there's too much cheap property to be had for it to be cheap forever but that'll be a while. Several places in PA are ripe for hipster takeover - Pittsburgh is already making moves and I think the Lehigh valley area is potential as well.

The west coast is pretty much tapped out. Maybe, mayyybe Olympia WA or Spokane WA. If there's any potential in California left, maybe Sacramento - which is still relatively affordable by west coast standards to my great surprise.

As for Texas? I actually do think San Antonio is trying to set itself up to be the next Austin.

I can see San Antonio being the next contestant, but it does have a decent amount of time to go, since the city does need a few adjustments. As for the rest of your post I do agree with you. I don't know why but Oklahoma City always pops up into my head as being a place that would be able to be the next trendy area to live in.

Good point on Detroit, I've read a good amount of articles that some billionaire along with other investors want to rebuild Detroit. Maybe in the future I'll buy a few properties, haha.

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by DeadSoul103

I can see San Antonio being the next contestant, but it does have a decent amount of time to go, since the city does need a few adjustments. As for the rest of your post I do agree with you. I don't know why but Oklahoma City always pops up into my head as being a place that would be able to be the next trendy area to live in.

Good point on Detroit, I've read a good amount of articles that some billionaire along with other investors want to rebuild Detroit. Maybe in the future I'll buy a few properties, haha.

Once they come to grips in Detroit that they're not going to be as populous as they once were, I think it will start to take off and become the next Portland / Austin. They'll have to bulldoze some whole neighborhoods and that's going to hurt. It has the potential to be better than Portland because it has a manufacturing base to work with as well as the ability to attract creative or tech-class jobs.

Also I forgot to mention New Orleans - another strong possibility there, but they need to get their crime problem in order (Detroit also needs to do that).

Sadly (or ironically) the reason I say this is because of what happened in Portland and Austin - I see HUGE potential in those two cities for some pretty massive gentrification like what happened in north Portland and east Austin. Or Brooklyn for that matter.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by Tyryztoll

Lotta towns have run this cycle. I remember in the 90's how Seattle was the place to go. Now the COL there is so high it's not even worth considering.

Supply and demand would tend to disprove the first part of your statement.

I think if we were to apply some additional logic to the OP's question, it would more likely end up being something like, "Which city is the next to join cities like Portland, San Diego, Denver, Seattle, Austin, etc as 'it' cities where people want to live?".. and, since Austin is obviously the newer addition to that list, the question really boils down to "Which city is the next Austin?"

And that's been asked 1000x on these forums.

The answer is there are many potential cities which fit the bill. Candidates in TX include San Marcos and San Antonio... candidates outside Texas could be Fayetteville (AR), Nashville, Columbus (OH), Lexington, Tuscon, Albuquerque, Reno. It will come down to the combination of several factors hitting all at the same time, like they did with Austin.

[TheOverdog]

Flagstaff AZ is my guess. It's already on the upswing, they just need additional job base. Way farther along towards a 'hipster' town than Reno, Albuquerque, or San Antonio.

[happycrow]

People need to separate out "worth living in" and "attractive to young/starting out creatives who need a low COL."

San Diego, for instance, is VERY attractive as a city. It's also hard to afford. Just this weekend I was visiting relatives in Vegas who used to live there and really want to move back, but can't afford to. Have heard it plenty of other times, too - there's a good reason a third of the state is living in poverty, and that won't do for "the next hip city" experience.

There are a lot of good candidates but I don't see OKC as one of them -- "next new thing" cities usually tend to cluster around arts/media rather than physical goods/energy. I can see San Antonio, Saint Louis, Kansas City, and Albuquerque fitting the bill.

[testmo]

I thought there were some tech jobs moving to OKC.

I agree with san antonio. I think there is way more of a hip vibe there than in austin. Also agree with Pittsburgh but it may already be at that point.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by testmo

I agree with san antonio. I think there is way more of a hip vibe there than in austin. Also agree with Pittsburgh but it may already be at that point.

That's a bit of a stretch, but I do agree San Antonio has all the elements to become the next trendy place to move.

[theone33]

San Antonio? I hope transplants dont ever get lost on the east or south side LOL