Why did Latino Texas votes shift so sharply to Trump from 4 years ago? (San Antonio: home, live)

[Siberiaboy]

This narrative needs attention

From WSJ

“Texas’s Hidalgo County, which is home to McAllen and 92% Hispanic, saw the Democratic victory margin in the presidential race fall to 17 percentage points from 41 points in 2016. In neighboring Starr County, which is 99% Hispanic and which 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton carried by 60 points, Mr. Biden won by 5 points. Mr. Trump won neighboring Zapata County, which is 95% Hispanic and which Mrs. Clinton carried by 33 points.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/latino-...wsj&yptr=yahoo

[As Above So Below...]

It was only the border area and far South Texas. Biden did better in the major metro areas in Texas among all groups than Hillary did.

[Siberiaboy]

Why did far South Texas have this shift? It’s not something you normally see.

[turf3]

Because voters are not the stereotypes that the media portray.

The full explanation of variations amongst Hispanic voting patterns would take many paragraphs but I would like to point out that there are many many groups within the blanket term "Hispanic", with distinct goals, views, and histories. And that's just within Texas where the vast majority of so-called "Hispanics" are of Mexican background; add Puerto Ricans (New York) and Cubans (S. Florida) and Argentines and Costa Ricans and Colombians and Belizeans into the mix and you can see that the media narrative of "Hispanics/Latinos" as a voting bloc is false.

[Siberiaboy]

Originally Posted by turf3

Because voters are not the stereotypes that the media portray.

The full explanation of variations amongst Hispanic voting patterns would take many paragraphs but I would like to point out that there are many many groups within the blanket term "Hispanic", with distinct goals, views, and histories. And that's just within Texas where the vast majority of so-called "Hispanics" are of Mexican background; add Puerto Ricans (New York) and Cubans (S. Florida) and Argentines and Costa Ricans and Colombians and Belizeans into the mix and you can see that the media narrative of "Hispanics/Latinos" as a voting bloc is false.

On further research I am seeing that in Starr County, which went heavily for Clinton in 2016 and barely for Biden,

2016:
Democrat votes:
9,289
Vs
2020:
Democrat votes
9,009
*A slight drop

2016:
Republican votes
2,224
Vs
2020:
Republican votes
8,224
*4-fold increase

We can hence conclude Trump influenced a NEW voting base that didn’t cast votes in the past

[supfromthesite]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

It was only the border area and far South Texas. Biden did better in the major metro areas in Texas among all groups than Hillary did.

It was all of south Texas, besides maybe San Antonio.

[supfromthesite]

Jim Hogg went 40% for Trump which is the most it has ever gone for a Republican besides Nixon in 1972.

Jim Wells went 54% for Trump the second most it's ever gone for a Republican and the third Republican victory ever.

Zapata went Republican for the first time in 100 years.

Duval went 48% for Trump which is way higher than it has ever gone.

[As Above So Below...]

Good for them.

I think the most noteworthy thing about Texas other than that is Tarrant County (the 3rd biggest in Texas) going blue.

[turf3]

Well, I think that there were very few people sitting there trying to decide "Should I vote Democratic or Republican" or "Should I vote for Biden or Trump"?


I think what's really happened is that people were sitting around thinking "I'm a Biden/Trump supporter, shall I go out and vote, or not?"


In the case referenced above, more Trump supporters decided to go out and vote (a lot more, in that particular case) and fewer Biden supporters decided to go out (just a small number fewer). Across the country as a whole a few more Biden people decided to vote and a few fewer (sorry!) Trump people decided to vote. There is a very small shift is a few states that pushed the electoral count to the Biden side. Yes, there were a few states that switched sides compared to '16, but in the vast majority of cases you'll see that this was not a huge shift in that state; it ws a shift of a few thousand votes. And I'm betting that with further analysis we'll see that it's due to turnout, and that it's due to turnout of people who didn't vote last time (but this is just my speculation).

[supfromthesite]

Originally Posted by turf3

Well, I think that there were very few people sitting there trying to decide "Should I vote Democratic or Republican" or "Should I vote for Biden or Trump"?


I think what's really happened is that people were sitting around thinking "I'm a Biden/Trump supporter, shall I go out and vote, or not?"


In the case referenced above, more Trump supporters decided to go out and vote (a lot more, in that particular case) and fewer Biden supporters decided to go out (just a small number fewer). Across the country as a whole a few more Biden people decided to vote and a few fewer (sorry!) Trump people decided to vote. There is a very small shift is a few states that pushed the electoral count to the Biden side. Yes, there were a few states that switched sides compared to '16, but in the vast majority of cases you'll see that this was not a huge shift in that state; it ws a shift of a few thousand votes. And I'm betting that with further analysis we'll see that it's due to turnout, and that it's due to turnout of people who didn't vote last time (but this is just my speculation).

I don't know. I think a lot of people that traditionally voted for Democrats might have went Trump this time, or at the very least stayed home because they weren't happy with Joe Biden. I think the whole "Black Lives Matter" thing doesn't help either. From what I hear, it is not very popular in south Texas, even among Democrats. Of course, you still have very leftist Democrats down there that do support it.

I wonder if part of the reason Trump voters turned out is because of all of the blue Texas stuff? Maybe they are starting to get worried about it actually happening.