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Southern Arizona seems to be a good choice. It's reasonably warm, almost always sunny, teemed with plenty of outdoor activities like mountain biking, and very importantly, the hotels are reasonably priced, unlike Miami. I can also find affordable nonstop flights from where I live to PHX.
Is there any downside? The only negative thing I can think of is its dry climate but I'll bring a humidifier.
I have lots of first-hand experience with Arizona, lived there for years. It's great in the winter and perfect for folks that like outdoor stuff, we did all our winter camping in the southern part of Arizona and would go up north on the rim during the winter. It's great for road trips... drive along the Apache Trail and check out all the beautiful lakes along it. Go down to visit Karchner Caverns. It you like cheesey cowboy tourist stuff go to Tombstone. There are various state parks around Phoenix including some pretty close like White Tank that offer great camping and hiking. Some people like Bisbee, I liked the mine tour there. Drive through Organ Pipe.
One downside is Phoenix itself has a temperature inversion in the winter that sometimes leads to smog that can affect some people with respiratory conditions, but I'm not clear from your post if you're planning on staying in Phoenix proper.
In Phoenix there are different events going on depending on when you're there, right around December and January is peak. If you like hiking and are staying in Phoenix try South Mountain, Camelback, Piestewa Peak, or a shorter one up A mountain near ASU. You can also rent horsies on South Mountain, they used to have a pretty cool ride + steakhouse dealie up there. Let's see, oh yeah you can also rent ATVs for group tours in some beautiful country just east of Phoenix, you go through arroyos and really neat landscape.
There is (of course) good Mexican food, getting past the usual Tex-Mex type more along the lines of legit Sonoran style Mexican food. There is a Michelin Starred restaurant at one of the Indian resorts I forget which one if that's your thing, I think it's a native American inspired menu which is unusual for that level of restaurant.
The warmest spots will be in Lake Havasu or Yuma. All a matter of altitude in the Southwest, about 1100 feet in Phoenix, 500 feet in altitude for Havasu, and even lower altitude in Yuma, the sunniest city in the U.S. with 320 days of sunshine a year. And in Yuma, you're only 5-6 miles to Algodones, MX, which I call the dental clinic capital of Mexico, and if you step on it, 2 hours to San Diego/Tijuana.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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My retiree friends who relocate to AZ (yr round) often choose SE / Cochise County.
Varied Climate, (nice summers, moderate winters) / activities (but a long way from LARGE bodies of water...)
Near enough to Tuscon for city / airport trips.
Lake Havasu City was (winter) home for my mom for ~10 yrs. (Colorado for summer).
She bought a very inexpensive older House Boat (<$5000) and had a very good time cruising around for years. She remodeled (4) 'executive' flip homes on a nice golf course. She speaks very fondly of her yrs there. (since has retreated to LC, NM 15+ yrs)
I am in Southern Arizona every winter. I suggest staying in Tucson and explore the area. Mount Lemmon, Kitt Peak, Tubac, Bisbee, Karchner Caverns, etc. (Tombstone is a tourist trap, unfortunately).
The weather was a little too dry for me in AZ. We were in the Grand Canyon and Phoenix area though.
My favorite part was the GC to Phoenix drive by taking the 64 East and 89 South.
It was absolutely beautiful - the scenery would dramatically change every 50 odd miles
Location: The edge of the world and all of Western civilization
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I used to live in Arizona and HATED living there. I don't know what your needs are, but I wouldn't go back to that state if I could avoid it, and frankly think it's a wasteland suitable for a landfill or toxic waste dump. But I also lived there, and visiting it is different (and I wouldn't do either again).
My opinion aside, if you just want to relax at a long-term place, a resort or spa, and don't care much for amenities, then I think it may be sufficient. In Phoenix or Tucson, you won't miss much by not going into town. If you go much north of Phoenix or much south of Casa Grande (a bit south of Phoenix) the elevation picks up, meaning the night temperatures will get a bit colder. You did specifically mention dryness, and I don't know how your body reacts to it, but I've learned mine isn't suited for dry climates. I moved to Los Angeles and the increased humidity has benefited my health. There are days it gets dry here (like earlier today and yesterday), and I start to feel physically like I did in Phoenix, which was miserable. A day or two just meant not feeling great overall, but over a few days my cuticles peeled and skin in some areas cracked, so I always had to cover up to retain moisture because the cracks go deep and get very painful. Someone mentioned the air quality in the winter, and it is bad then if you have respiratory problems. I don't usually, but would feel it there (ironically, despite the reputed air quality here I don't get that feeling).
It's sunny and there are mountains, sure, but you could find the same in El Paso or parts of Southern California east of coastal cities, such as in the Palm Springs area (there are nearby "suburbs" to the east that are cheaper). The climates are similar, but I think El Paso is a bit cooler. I'm surprised you didn't find much in other Florida cities, or anything along the Gulf Coast. I think it comes down to what you want out of the trip. If you just want sun and warmth, Arizona is fine. The "mountains" aren't particularly scenic if you're expecting the Rockies; think of the triceratops dung scene in Jurassic Park instead (that's what they look like). Culturally, Phoenix and Tucson are lackluster, so set your standards low there. If you want to do some shopping, Phoenix is your better bet. I would recommend to keep looking, but that's only because I'm too familiar with Arizona.
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