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Weekday rush hour estimates are very reliable in my eperience. Any service disruption (track maintenance, smoke in a station) will, of course, change the estimates. All service disruptions that can cause delays are usually listed on the WMATA website. In particular, look for the monthly press releases listing planned track maintenance. The radio station WAMU (88.5) will also announce Metro delays in its rush hour traffic reports. If, however, you rely on in-station annoucements, it's easy to get bad information about delays.
Even though trains have to be taken out of service weekly and there are times when there is an obstruction on the tracks, the majority of the time Metro runs fine.
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