15 mins from Baltimore to DC? So how realistic is High Speed Rail in the cooridor? (Washington: 2014, condos)
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Could this really be happening soon? I'd like to get a take on first how realistic/ recently should we expect some form of true HSR in the region? I know there will be loopholes and setbacks but just your thoughts on an estimate.
The Baltimore Washington Rapid Rail LLC, has officially to the Public Service Commission of Maryland for a franchise to operate High Speed Rail. It's being confirmed that Japanese government has committed to invest $5 billion for this leg.
Also a true understanding of how people feel as the impact of a 15 min train from Downtown DC to Downtown Baltimore would affect the economy/development. Trains would have the ability to reach up to 300 mph max, although from DC to Balt i'd expect it to stay a little lower. I really see this leg helping Baltimore more initially especially if it stops at BWI, the city could definitely capitalize off commuters from DC. Now continuing up the NEC I could see it helping DC tremendously if it could reach NY in 1 hr.
I don't know, but the litigious nature of our country seems to slow up every technological advancement excluding social media and mobile apps. It really hurts when one travels to other developed nations and sees what's going on first hand...#rant
To make this really work, the ticket prices would need to be about $10-12 each way max in today's dollars. Much more than that and it won't make sense to take the trips for the majority. If the operating price is right, it would make downtown Baltimore more of a suburb than Fairfax and Montgomery county especially for those who like row houses or condos, but can't afford DC. It may actually have negative pressure on non-center DC, Arlington, and Bethesda condo prices as buyers would get more for their money square footage wise in Baltimore with a similar length commute to DC.
Maybe our kids will be eligible for the AARP discount in its first year. There are a bunch of things working against this happening anytime soon.
The $10b estimate from the company for the DC-Baltimore leg won't even cover the tunneling they're proposing. It's not close to a real number to actually getting a train running between Baltimore and Washington.
Even though DC-Baltimore makes sense as a phase 1 project, it doesn't make sense to invest in something as expensive as maglev unless the rest of the DC-NY project is lined up in a viable long-term plan to make it a sustainable operational model. Phase 1 is only going to happen if Phase 2 and 3 etc are buttoned up.
You're ultimately talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of public funds needed. I don't think the public has the appetite for that, Congress certainly doesn't, and the federal government's existing lending authority has struggled to approve even $1 and $2 billion dollar loans for rail projects. It's not just a populous reaction against major public works; the trend of recent economic impact studies has not reflected favorably on the return on investment for major public infrastructure projects.
In the context of that reality, $5b from Japan is a good chunk for that first leg, but it's not much of an incentive. Japan isn't doing it to be nice - they realize how big this project is, and it's more than worth it for them to provide a few billion dollars in order to sell their technology.
I don't think it even gets to the point of attempting the herculean task of dealing with all of the municipalities, the most epic environmental impact/public comment process ever, decades of construction etc etc anytime soon.
Last edited by KStreetQB; 09-04-2014 at 07:26 PM..
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,139 posts, read 7,601,151 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KStreetQB
Maybe our kids will be eligible for the AARP discount in its first year. There are a bunch of things working against this happening anytime soon.
The $10b estimate from the company for the DC-Baltimore leg won't even cover the tunneling they're proposing. It's not close to a real number to actually getting a train running between Baltimore and Washington.
Even though DC-Baltimore makes sense as a phase 1 project, it doesn't make sense to invest in something as expensive as maglev unless the rest of the DC-NY project is lined up in a viable long-term plan to make it a sustainable operational model. Phase 1 is only going to happen if Phase 2 and 3 etc are buttoned up.
You're ultimately talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of public funds needed. I don't think the public has the appetite for that, Congress certainly doesn't, and the federal government's existing lending authority has struggled to approve even $1 and $2 billion dollar loans for rail projects. It's not just a populous reaction against major public works; the trend of recent economic impact studies has not reflected favorably on the return on investment for major public infrastructure projects.
In the context of that reality, $5b from Japan is a good chunk for that first leg, but it's not much of an incentive. Japan isn't doing it to be nice - they realize how big this project is, and it's more than worth it for them to provide a few billion dollars in order to sell their technology.
I don't think it even gets to the point of attempting the herculean task of dealing with all of the municipalities, the most epic environmental impact/public comment process ever, decades of construction etc etc anytime soon.
So if $10b won't cover it, is there an actual definitive estimate on at least how much the DC-Baltimore phase would cost? I've heard all kinds of numbers. And I agree they probably won't move on any form of construction on a 1st phase until at LEAST the phase thru Philly/NY is lined up.
I know the challenges would be immense, but what about Japan doubling up to at least $10b in the initial phase only? Or at least something to get this process jump started without decades of setbacks? You would think that Congress would work out some type of plan with Japanese government to lay incentives down to ensure their confidence and maybe up their ante. I know I'm dreaming here but just being honest. Our country is broke, and government just as broken, so probably no time soon.
The next generation of hi-speed rail transportation from San Diego to San Francisco has little support in liberal, progressive California due to cost overruns and cost-effective traveling options by car or plane. This should tell people something.
An East Coast rapid rail network would be next to impossible. Too much development. Too much population density. I am a big fan of bullet train infrastructure and I think it would be a huge economic boost for the East Coast megapolis. Not to mention that there might be fewer carbon emissions if we get people away from automobiles and air travel.
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,139 posts, read 7,601,151 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zack
To make this really work, the ticket prices would need to be about $10-12 each way max in today's dollars. Much more than that and it won't make sense to take the trips for the majority. If the operating price is right, it would make downtown Baltimore more of a suburb than Fairfax and Montgomery county especially for those who like row houses or condos, but can't afford DC. It may actually have negative pressure on non-center DC, Arlington, and Bethesda condo prices as buyers would get more for their money square footage wise in Baltimore with a similar length commute to DC.
For what the cost of the construction per mile this would be, I know $10-12 is impossible...I'm not familiar with MARC rates but I could see it being 3 to 4 times more than MARC easily. For your money It may be more worth it going a longer distance all the way to NY, like Acela rates but just faster service.
Fair point about the condo prices of immediate DC suburbs though, I could easily see Baltimore getting the better end of the stick from this.
So if $10b won't cover it, is there an actual definitive estimate on at least how much the DC-Baltimore phase would cost? I've heard all kinds of numbers. And I agree they probably won't move on any form of construction on a 1st phase until at LEAST the phase thru Philly/NY is lined up.
I know the challenges would be immense, but what about Japan doubling up to at least $10b in the initial phase only? Or at least something to get this process jump started without decades of setbacks? You would think that Congress would work out some type of plan with Japanese government to lay incentives down to ensure their confidence and maybe up their ante. I know I'm dreaming here but just being honest. Our country is broke, and government just as broken, so probably no time soon.
Tunneling is extremely expensive. Their Project in Japan will cost close to 120 billion $ and is the same design as this project. So the 5 or 10 billion estimate is a lie.
So if $10b won't cover it, is there an actual definitive estimate on at least how much the DC-Baltimore phase would cost?
I don't think there is. There isn't precedent for this type of project in the US. I don't even think we can look to other countries for a cost estimate, because the cost of major civil engineering projects in the US is absolutely bonkers compared to other countries.
So lets think about this in terms of something we know - the Silver Line. The Silver Line goes 27 miles and change, has 3 miles of aerial guideway and 2400 linear feet of new tunnel (700 cut and cover <cheapest>, 1700 sequential tunneling <slow and a bit pricier>). Cost $6.8 billion.
The first DC-Baltimore MagLev phase proposes to go 40 miles, 30 of which require tunneling (the most expensive part). So $10b is way way way off. I think the Maglev folks have been touting their 'cost of track' estimate ($10b) without including tunneling, or rolling/hovering stock. So the wishful thinking total, pulling from quotes by the Chairman of the MagLev company, appears to be $10b for track + $6.5-$8b for tunnelling + ??? for the hovering/rolling stock. So maybe ~$18-$20 billion from the guys who want people to invest.
So we know $10b isn't it for Phase 1. Personally I don't think $18-$20b will quite cover it either. I'm thinking that with 30 miles of tunneling, and the mess we make of major infrastructure projects, it'll be more like $25b-30b before its fully operational between DC and Baltimore. That's a total flier though.
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