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Doesn't El Nino mean more noreaster's for us on the east coast?
Dont know the actual count vs non Ninos but yeah, when sub jet is active we have better chances. But a Greenland block (negative nao) helps as well plus the flow itself. Right side of trough needs to be to our east.
For those that need a visual.. picture the letter U in the eastern US. The right side of the U is where storms travel and can blow up.
and when Sub Jet meets Polar jet we get those big snowstorms which reminds me of 2010 styles. Problem might be getting that northern jet to come down with enough cold air.
If I remember correctly we didnt have a blizzard in winter 2013-14 & maybe 2014-15? Memory starting to slack off about last winter. That means its ready for a new one now. Lmao
Looks like entire U.S cools down hard starting September but then starts to moderate and get back to normal then December the Upper plains warms above normal then shifts to Northeast in the Spring.
Looks like entire U.S cools down hard starting September but then starts to moderate and get back to normal then December the Upper plains warms above normal then shifts to Northeast in the Spring.
Annual Precipitation Response to a Strong El Nino
Interesting but as usual not all winters follow that pattern with a strong El Nino. In 82/83 only Feb was below avg here by 1.8F. We had one big 21" snow event. Winter was over after that. 1972/73 was quite similar to 82/83. Feb was the only below avg month, but only by 2F and the ultimate winter low was warmer than the last two years here.
In 97/98 every single winter month was off the charts above average.
Who knows what will happen. If it is stronger than 97/98, and the warm blob is still there, it could end up just an average winter as the blob may act to tamp down the Pacific air. In 97/98 we were flooded with Pacific air all winter long non stop.
Looks like entire U.S cools down hard starting September but then starts to moderate and get back to normal then December the Upper plains warms above normal then shifts to Northeast in the Spring.
Annual Precipitation Response to a Strong El Nino
Pretty interesting gifs. It looks to me like California was right on target for July, and so far in August. Cooler and wetter than usual.
Ugh.. everytime I look at the El Nino maps I cringe. Need Canada and Mid West to be Cold! Saving grace will be if Polar jet dives east of Great Lakes even though I wouldnt like that much. It would at least give us shots of cold and chances of snowstorms.
Ugh.. everytime I look at the El Nino maps I cringe. Need Canada and Mid West to be Cold! Saving grace will be if Polar jet dives east of Great Lakes even though I wouldnt like that much. It would at least give us shots of cold and chances of snowstorms.
They can't predict at this stage what El Nino will look like in Jan and Feb at this point with any certainty. And don't forget your favorite warm blob is still there. That changes everything this year. Not like 97-98. There was no warm blob then.
I am not saying this hoping the opposite happens, but I really think you are going to get your third cold winter in a row. Bastardi has been spot on, and he is saying we are getting a complete repeat of last winter. But then that is it. We have never, ever had four back to back cold winters in a row. We have only had three in a row once 1976-77, 77-78, and 78-79. So I hope after this third cold one I don't have to listen to your constant hype and pining about another cold winter. You ain't getting four in a row. Just not gonna happen.
But, to the credit of the author, he does mention the biggest difference with any other El Nino:
Like snowflakes, no two El Niños are exactly alike, and they're only one of many different large-scale weather patterns acting in tandem to influence global weather. The presence of "the blob," as it has become known -- an area of warmer water in the Northern Pacific -- wasn't there during the 1997 El Niño, which will likely influence the jet stream over North America, meaning this El Niño may not be the drought-buster that Californians are hoping for.
If it isn't the drought busting El Nino they are hoping for, it really means another very cold winter for us in the east because of a big old unmovable ridge over the west coast again.
But, to the credit of the author, he does mention the biggest difference with any other El Nino:
Like snowflakes, no two El Niños are exactly alike, and they're only one of many different large-scale weather patterns acting in tandem to influence global weather. The presence of "the blob," as it has become known -- an area of warmer water in the Northern Pacific -- wasn't there during the 1997 El Niño, which will likely influence the jet stream over North America, meaning this El Niño may not be the drought-buster that Californians are hoping for.
If it isn't the drought busting El Nino they are hoping for, it really means another very cold winter for us in the east because of a big old unmovable ridge over the west coast again.
If it isn't the drought busting El Nino they are hoping for, it really means another very cold winter for us in the east because of a big old unmovable ridge over the west coast again.
What I'd like to know is whether or not any dips in the eastern US will be able to reach farther south/east into places like the eastern gulf coast or even central Florida. Last winter, that didn't really happen until like February.
If the warm blob in the Pacific moves farther east towards the western Canadian coast, I guess that would allow the Bermuda High to move farther east, allowing the south Atlantic states to get in on the cold action more this winter.
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