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As we approach peak pumpkin spice latte season, we’re also closing in on the peak of the 2015-2016 El Niño, expected by forecasters to occur in the late fall or early winter.
This El Niño continues to rank among the strongest in our records, which start in 1950. The July-September 3-month average sea surface temperature (the ONI) was 1.5°C above normal, third in line behind July-September 1987 (1.6°C) and 1997 (1.7°C). The atmospheric response to the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures is keeping pace, too: the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) is -2.2. This is second to 1997’s -2.6, and well ahead of the next two El Niños on the list (1972 and 1982, tied at -1.4).
Here’s a fun fact for your next nerdy cocktail party… Boulder, Colorado has registered seven October snowstorms with more than one foot of snow since 1950, every one happening during an El Niño winter. Snowstorms are really complex weather events that are difficult to forecast, even just a few days in advance, so this isn’t to say that Boulder should expect a big snowstorm this month. However, thanks to El Niño, the odds are tilted toward greater-than-average rain or snow in Colorado, and much of the southern half of the country, in late fall and early winter.
We’re moving into the seasons when we’ll see the greatest impacts from this strong El Niño event, so stay tuned to your local weather forecast office. It’s always a good idea to pay attention to the weather forecast, but especially so with this strong El Niño in place.
Indeed. The only one that stands out to me was 97-98 but that was very unusual. Almost everytime I've heard "oh the winter will be mild cause of El Nino" it seemed to never pan out.
Almost everytime I've heard "oh the winter will be mild cause of El Nino" it seemed to never pan out.
Yup. Remember... A "weakening" El Nino doe not have the same affect as a continued strong El Nino. That's because it yields to other factors that become the driver. There are drivers of weather patterns and enhancers. El Nino might lose its edge on being the driver again this year but it needs to weaken a.s.a.p.!
This Joe Bastard will do ANYTHING for his cold winter to prove global warming false and to jazz up the weather industry in the northeast and midwest with blizzard warnings, arctic outbreaks for his ratings. (Days of 50s and sunshine in winter in New York and Chicago get no weather channel ratings). Now he's been forced into a corner to admit that his prediction of El Niño failure or fading this fall is an utter failure and that it may rival the 1997-1998 one or even exceed it; so now he's crossing his fingers and hoping that this El Niño still has little effect on the eastern U.S's winters.
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