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View Poll Results: When do you think La Nina will happen?
Spring 2016 3 4.84%
Summer 2016 16 25.81%
Fall 2016 23 37.10%
Winter 2016-17 11 17.74%
After Feb 2017 9 14.52%
Voters: 62. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-22-2016, 03:30 PM
 
Location: Norman, OK
2,850 posts, read 1,970,984 times
Reputation: 892

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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Those were the fourth and fifth hottest Julys on record where I live. I sure would like to avoid a repeat.

Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
Record cold winter in the making.
Maybe. Or it could just be colder than average. I think it's really too early to tell.
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Old 06-22-2016, 08:15 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
Reputation: 5895
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Warmer than average spring, good start to summer as June will certainly be above average, and the outlook for winter looks very promising

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/...89578569347072


Hey George, maybe you should read the whole article before posting. Know why? Look right here at what the article states:


At this point in the season, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a weak La Niña to develop during late fall and into the winter. An area of warmer-than-normal water off the northwestern U.S. coast, nicknamed the "warm blob," is inhibiting a strong La Niña from forming.


Whoa there. You have repeatedly argued with me that the warm blob was dead, and I insisted it never died just moved closer to the coast. So there. You were totally wrong. The blob is alive and well, and even blocking the Nina. That thing is a weather phenom, and I am convinced is related to some kind of climate change. Admit you were wrong.
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Old 06-22-2016, 09:31 PM
 
29,531 posts, read 19,620,154 times
Reputation: 4544
Umm, I read that, and that warm water off the Northwest coast is called a +PDO and the anomalies aren't anywhere near what they were.

Look...

https://twitter.com/hepomodeler/stat...67643346731009


And it's not me that proclaimed it dead but NASA. Click on the link amd see the satellite images as to just how much it has cooled sinfe it's peak.


Quote:
Thanks in part to the strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, the Blob has finally broken up. Beginning in November 2015, strong winds blowing south from Alaska began to pick up, and sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific began to cool
http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/I...=iotd_readmore

In case you're not familiar with what a positive PDO and negative PDO looks like


Last edited by chicagogeorge; 06-22-2016 at 09:55 PM..
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Old 06-22-2016, 09:53 PM
 
29,531 posts, read 19,620,154 times
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Current SST state... Yup definitely in a +PDO, and best analogs

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...95014345289728
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Old 06-22-2016, 09:59 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
Reputation: 5895
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Umm, I read that, and that warm water off the Northwest coast is called a +PDO and the anomalies aren't anywhere near what they were.

Look...

https://twitter.com/hepomodeler/stat...67643346731009


And it's not me that proclaimed it dead but NASA. Click on the link amd see the satellite images as to just how much it has cooled sinfe it's peak.




The Demise of the Warm Blob : Image of the Day

In case you're not familiar with what a positive PDO and negative PDO looks like


NOAA knows nothing. Accu-W said "warm blob" so there it is. Blob is alive and well for the next century wreaking havoc on the eastern US for good.
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Old 06-22-2016, 10:20 PM
 
29,531 posts, read 19,620,154 times
Reputation: 4544
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
NOAA knows nothing. Accu-W said "warm blob" so there it is. Blob is alive and well for the next century wreaking havoc on the eastern US for good.
You mean Accuweather knows better than NASA? Just look at the warm signature along the PNW. That's a classic +PDO.

Oh, and I guess I should be thanking the +PDO for a warmer than average June?
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Old 06-23-2016, 07:55 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
Reputation: 5895
Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
Record cold winter in the making.

Dry in Southeast in winter means very cold nights. If you get 1984 (analog year) again, you can say goodbye to lots of palms down there.
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Old 06-23-2016, 07:59 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
Reputation: 5895
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
You mean Accuweather knows better than NASA? Just look at the warm signature along the PNW. That's a classic +PDO.

Oh, and I guess I should be thanking the +PDO for a warmer than average June?

You certainly aren't getting record hot weather consistently and your forecast doesn't look all that hot on the Euro EPS. Meanwhile what is going on in Seattle I wonder. Oh that's right, nothing but a huge persistent ridge over them just like with the warm blob. And over us, constant little troughs coming down that in winter will be brutally cold. They even state that a typical La Nina usually means cold winter in Seattle (based on their avg temps), but not this year due to the warm blob. They can't get a cold winter to save their life. The only thing I hope is that eventually when Mother Nature wants payback to balance out the yearly averages, either they are going to have a string of lousy summers, or they are going to get a very cold winter.
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Old 06-23-2016, 08:06 AM
 
29,531 posts, read 19,620,154 times
Reputation: 4544
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
You certainly aren't getting record hot weather consistently and your forecast doesn't look all that hot on the Euro EPS. Meanwhile what is going on in Seattle I wonder. Oh that's right, nothing but a huge persistent ridge over them just like with the warm blob. And over us, constant little troughs coming down that in winter will be brutally cold. They even state that a typical La Nina usually means cold winter in Seattle (based on their avg temps), but not this year due to the warm blob. They can't get a cold winter to save their life. The only thing I hope is that eventually when Mother Nature wants payback to balance out the yearly averages, either they are going to have a string of lousy summers, or they are going to get a very cold winter.
First off, I've been consistently above average for how many months now (minus April)? Nine or ten months out of eleven? Secondly, this isn't a typical La Nina developing because it's occurring during a very strong PDO (that warm blob that you speak of). Only happened during one other episode back in the mid 80's (83-84 and lasted through 1985). I posted this in the Euro thread to show you that Seattle isn't seeing any more positive anomalies in their temps this month than I am. Currently we are both +2.9F above normal.




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Old 06-23-2016, 08:20 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,407,749 times
Reputation: 1996
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Current SST state... Yup definitely in a +PDO, and best analogs

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/st...95014345289728
None of those analogs are good for heat. Only one that had a hot summer was 88 because of a above normal august, all the other years sucked majorly, and so far the weather has not been like any of those years.
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