February & Early March 2016 U.S Stormy Pattern (Rain & Snowstorms) (weatherman, East)

[Cambium]

https://twitter.com/JoeJoyceNH1/stat...62692716027904

[nei]

well at least we'll have lake effect snow

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...88584816992256

[Calvert Hall '62]

For Monday the 15th, Wunderground keeps vacillating: 5-8" vs. 1-3" vs. 2-6" vs. 3-5". But they do that frequently.


Then for the 16th, ice pellets, rain, and freezing rain.

[NortheasternBound]

Here in Aurora, ME, Sunny 1F Degrees, Winds WSW 7mph, Gusts 12mph, Today's High 14, Low 3.
Then comes the storm:
Severe Weather Alerts - Aurora, ME

• Winter Storm Watch
  
  Winter Storm Watch in effect from Saturday, 1:00 AM EST until Sunday, 1:00 AM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service
  
  
  

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 15 INCHES
IN A VERY NARROW BAND ALONG THE COAST. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DROP
OFF CONSIDERABLY INLAND TOWARDS INTERIOR HANCOCK COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY.

* TIMING...LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE IMPACT. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.
SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE LATER SATURDAY BUT BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...1/4SM OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Not looking forward to Monday/Tuesday where it could rain on my snowman!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by NortheasternBound

Not looking forward to Monday/Tuesday where it could rain on my snowman!

Yup.


Tuesday Feb 16, 2016 Storm Update

A look at the projected track from all the models. HORRIBLE!!!!!!!!!!


The green line (Canadian) is best for Northern New England to get more snow than the others but what a horrible track to have in February with Arctic air that "was" around!


Sub zero temps to rain!?

Here's the thing... This storm is bringing in warm air but Moisture happens "ahead" of the storm. So many of us will get "front end THUMP Snows". Which means a couple of inches of snow before the changeover.


However ... a problem with this setup is, the warm air at the mid levels will come in while the ground level is still very cold and still below freezing.. That means one thing........





ICE STORM.


Even with the Canadians better track, the warmer air comes in with surface freezing. Not good

[Cambium]

Monday-Tuesday Feb 15-16, 2016 Storm Update


NAM starting to get in range now. (only goes to Hour 84 which is Monday 7pm)


I can tell you, it has more moisture and colder. But because it doesn't go farther I have no idea for north of NYC. But there is a foot of snow for the NC/VA mountains and even half foot into lower elevations of Virginia.


Is NAM going to lead the way AGAIN??!!!! We'll see.


GFS comes out in a few.
Canadian at about 1pm.
Euro at 2pm

[Cambium]

Monday-Tuesday Feb 15-16, 2016 Storm Update - GFS12z


GFS12z hr 90. Monday night. Raining in NJ. Snowing in PA, CT, and MA. Storm still down south.







Hr 99 Tues morning. Changes to rain East of the Apps and South of Northern New England with storm at VA/NC border.




This one seems like its going to be all about the Thump.


Last 4 runs Using Tuesday 10am time frame this run is MUCH SE more with the storm


As the storm leaves Tuesday night...Big Back end Thump for the Adirondacks and Green mountains. Wow. Eastern NY and Vermont as well.


Would be fascinating to be on the mountain if you can survive it. Heavy snows, to heavy rains, to heavy snows. Including wind and the changing temps up there too.

[Cambium]

My bolded part is important.. IF the trends on all models show a more southeast position with the storm down in the Mid Atlantic then there is more snow accumulations north of Philly since the warm air wont be as fast to move in..


But this still seems to ONLY be about the Front end thump

[Cambium]

Friday Feb 12 Storm Update:


Storm track map. The one off South Carolina is happening right now. The one over Texas is for our Mon-Tues storm. Clipper in Quebec dropping snow there.





Snowing in Kentucky and North Carolina and temps in the 20s and 30s





Here's the snow total forecast. Light stuff. They think only 2-3 inches for Coastal North Carolina.

[nei]

This is exciting. Any hope for Northern Vermont or New Hampshire? Or the Adirondacks?