Interesting discussion. This warming coming is never instant or uniform. It might come in at 3000 feet first or 4500 feet and just be a thin layer at first. Thats why we wont go from snow to rain in 1 shot. Will take more time for entire column above you to warm enough for rain...
Then you have to worry about the surface staying below freezing while that warming aloft happens.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
.A MELTING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS QUICKLY
NORTH...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...FOLLOWED
BY FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
KDOX CC DATA
CURRENTLY DEPICT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MELTING LAYER
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN DELAWARE W/NWWD TO NEAR DC. BASED ON KFCX
DATA...THIS TRANSITION ZONE THEN BENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
LEWISBURG WV.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL ADVANCE
MORE RAPIDLY N/NW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN
LIKELY OVERSPREADING THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO NYC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
INTO THIS EVENING...SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA WILL ALSO
TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AS THE MELTING LAYER PUSHES
FARTHER N/NW. FREEZING RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...
SFC
WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY RAISE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN
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