Autumn/Fall 2017 Thread (Sept-Oct-Nov) (record, temperatures, Chicago, precipitation)

[Shalop]

Originally Posted by Shalop

Dude a pressure like that would mean 170-190 mph sustained winds near the center.

Unlikely it'll be that strong, like others said.

Wilma, Rita, and Katrina were on that level, to name a few.

Oh boy was I wrong...

Sustained winds around 185 mph earlier today...

[Steelernation71]

Down to 58 as of 10 PM. Looks like the high was 69.

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/statu...78587603296256






Back here cool autumn like conditions

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...84974194319360

[Cambium]

You want to see timing?


See that big huge anomalous dip? If that was 24hrs slower or Irma was 24hrs faster, that dip would of kicked Irma out OR a merging of some kind would of happened.


But because this trough is leaving, Irma can hit the U.S. Timing. Timing. Timing. Fascinating.





This is how below normal that trough is for this time of year. And how above normal that Western ridge heights are too

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Forecast high temp today is 41.7°C, 2.8°C above average

Currently 31.1°C with a dewpoint of 13.3°C at 4am Pacific Time

[nei]

while Florida may get a major hurricane and Texas got drenched, the West is burning

https://twitter.com/AlexSteffen/stat...29440094519296

[BullochResident]

GFS has the worst case scenario for Savannah. Similar to Hugo track only farther west and directly slams the SC/GA border from the SSE. Hope that doesn't happen. I wonder what is causing the track to shift NNW after the curve instead of N or NNE?

[nei]

Originally Posted by Shalop

Oh boy was I wrong...

Sustained winds around 185 mph earlier today...

well the pressure is still above 900 mb... one article says part of the reason for the high winds with the non-extreme low pressure is higher surrounding pressure + a tight gradient. Storm pressure is still dropping...

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

well the pressure is still above 900 mb... one article says part of the reason for the high winds with the non-extreme low pressure is higher surrounding pressure + a tight gradient. Storm pressure is still dropping...

Good info but, "non extreme"?? Its the 14th lowest pressure on record. Would a Top 10 be more extreme? Its not often you see a sub 920mb cyclone in Atlantic/Gulf. And keeping 185mph Cat5 winds is impressive. Top 10 for wind peak.

I think once it makes the turn she'll spread out more. Currently a compact storm. We should look for Satellite comparisons on size.