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most.. The jobs that won't are going to be the ones that require more decision making or analytical and reasoning skills (compliance, risk management, psychiatrists, creatives, business execs etc)
most.. The jobs that won't are going to be the ones that require more decision making or analytical and reasoning skills (compliance, risk management, psychiatrists, creatives, business execs etc)
With advancements in machine learning and ai, it's very plausible for machines to make complex decisions-- look at the stock market, alot of trades are executed via models.
Not sure, but I've always asked myself this question:
1. Can a lay person off the street be trained to do my job?
2. Does the job require some kind of license, extensive training, etc?
3. Would the everyday consumer be alright with a robot providing this service?
This is why my vote is largely for healthcare-specifically, anything hands-on/clinical. The average person will need hands on care at some point in their life, and until the average person is satisfied with a robot starting an IV, delivering anesthetic in their mouths, performing life saving surgeries, those jobs will likely never dissapear.
However, if your position relies on very simple functions-picking up garbage, making simple financial transactions,etc, then I would be a tad worried.
I'm a project manager for a relatively small fulfillment service provider (<200 Mil in revenue) over the last 18 months we have invested heavily in automation. We have been able to reduce ~30% of our workforce and the ROI's on these machine are less than 3 years.
For example, when we have online sales events of 5-7,000 orders, previously these events would disrupt our operation resulting in about 45 people working on one of our accounts for an entire shift. Fast forward, now when we have these events we run a item sorter and automated packaging machine round robin. What previously took 45 employees can not be done with only 7. Also from an operator stand point, these machines are very low tech, it is very scale able and easy to train new employees right off the street.
The downside is will cause unemployment to keep rising and education level keep dropping. Its learn programming or get left behind. Programming is not for everybody, so pushing them to side for robots is being greedy business. Pretty much pure profit with less workers in the field. The other disadvantage is the pay rate will still not go up, while profits soar.
Since all of the major auto manufacturers have switched to multiple sub assemblies from a piece by piece assembly process, it is only logical that those sub assemblies will be totally automated in order to further drown down the cost.
Another job that will be automated is driving new vehicles off the line. Guided vehicle technology already exists to accomplish this.
Recycling sorters will also be phased out as robots with increasingly accurate vision systems are brought on board. Robots will soon be able to distinguish just about anything flying by on the shorter line.
Drone technology will also put a huge dent in the number of delivery drivers needed. While Amazon gets all the drone publicity, grocery stores are now perfecting home delivery. Expect drone delivery to follow shortly.
Recent reading indicates most accounting jobs are doomed.
We'll always need plumbers, welders, carpenters, and electricians.
Why do you assume this at all? Honestly I can see ALL of those being replaced. They will be closer to the end of the replacement curve, but I suspect it will happen a lot sooner then expected.
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