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I think that certain segments of the trucking industry will be easier to automate than others. Truckloads going from big production plants to big distribution centers require less skill than, say, hauling logs out of a forest on a seasonal road. A lot of the daily delivery jobs (beverage, milk, food service) require a lot of physical work from the driver, and the driver has a sales role and also stocks the shelves in some cases. Replacing these drivers would require new positions to be created to fill the void of the service provided by the driver. I think those types of trucking jobs would be more difficult to fully automate (maybe those trucks always have a “rider” at the very least).
I am a driver in a more specialized segment (hauling cattle), so I view my job as more difficult to automate. I enjoy what I do, but I also don’t plan on being behind the wheel forever. I am fortunate enough to have a college degree and a variety of work experience prior to trucking, so I don’t feel as threatened by automation as some might. As long as the job is enjoyable I’ll keep doing it, but if the micromanaging gets excessive or I feel like automation is a real threat, I’ll work on transitioning to something else.
It's inevitable. It's just that the outcome may be quite different from what a lot of people are envisioning. If it's fully automated, you might replace long haul trucking with fully automated rail and autonomous trucks are only for local routes. The variables are time and fuel. The fuel economy of a train blows away what you can achieve with a truck on a highway. I suspect that full automation can fix the time variable for rail freight so you'd never dream of putting it on a long haul truck since the fuel burn makes it non-competitive. It could also be that most local deliveries end up being by aerial drone.
It's not just truck drivers that have to worry. The transport industry accounts for 7% of all jobs in the nation, and almost all of them are at risk. Think about that for a moment - by automating just one industry, you single handedly decrease the work force by 7 points, most of those people have no other marketable skills. This is a disaster level scenario we have to start thinking about sooner rather than later.
I see questions about safety, and that's just sticking your head in the sand. Automated vehicles are already safer than humans, and they're in their infancy. Someone above talked about hacking them. I've got news for you - odds are, I can hack the vehicle you drive personally right now, with you in it, as you drive down the road, and take control of most of you're vehicle's functions, including steering with a 500 dollar device I bought at DefCon last year and a basic laptop. It'd take a short time of trailing behind you is all. The only vehicles it doesn't work on in basically real time are Teslas and certain high end German vehicles. And even those I can get into with a longer term effort. We need to stop sticking our heads in the sand on this, because a child was just born as I write this who isn't going to know that truck driver was even a profession. These rigs are ALREADY on the roads doing test runs. One just did a coast to coast last week.
The robots are coming, and they're coming faster than anyone realizes
The difference is that automated trucks must have built in software that will make decisions. Such systems are still in their infancy in terms of recognizing all possible types of terrain to navigate, let alone traversing that terrain in adverse weather conditions, along with challenging traffic conditions. Thus, I believe that the frequency of accidents will increase in direct proportion to the amount of automated vehicles on the road. These challenges for automated trucks and cars will be overcome someday, but not in the next few years.
Somebody still has to be there to correct the automated machine's mistakes and to unload the freight since it's not going to unload itself.
Unloading freight isn’t driving. It is a separate task performed by different people.
Yes, there is overlap, as package truck drivers and LTL drivers handle freight. Those won’t be the first jobs automated. Long distance pin to pin on established routes is likely to go first. We may still employ drivers in cities for a while, and in freight depots, just as the marine 8ndustry employs harbor pilots.
Given the relative severity of damage if a computer fails, we install backups. As with others, my desktop at work has issues from topime to time. It’s pretty rare when compared to years past, but it happens and it annoys me. The important thing is that my employers computers don’t go down, at least not visibly. We have redundant machines for mission critical tasks. If one email server goes down, a backup takes up the load. Auto-trucks can be made the same way. If the main driver computer starts to crash, the backup takes over. Maybe all that backup does is park the truck until a tech gets to it.
OP, if I had to guess, I think we start to see driverless trucks in 5-10 years, for a small segment of the industry, perhaps in limited geographical areas, maybe only at night. It will be minor, but it will increase every year.
In 10-20 years they will be common and unremarkable, filling many roles, and have a serious negative impact on CDL employment.
In 30 years truck drivers are going to be as common as farmers are today. They will be out there, but not many.
Unloading freight isn’t driving. It is a separate task performed by different people.
Yes, there is overlap, as package truck drivers and LTL drivers handle freight. Those won’t be the first jobs automated. Long distance pin to pin on established routes is likely to go first. We may still employ drivers in cities for a while, and in freight depots, just as the marine 8ndustry employs harbor pilots.
Given the relative severity of damage if a computer fails, we install backups. As with others, my desktop at work has issues from topime to time. It’s pretty rare when compared to years past, but it happens and it annoys me. The important thing is that my employers computers don’t go down, at least not visibly. We have redundant machines for mission critical tasks. If one email server goes down, a backup takes up the load. Auto-trucks can be made the same way. If the main driver computer starts to crash, the backup takes over. Maybe all that backup does is park the truck until a tech gets to it.
OP, if I had to guess, I think we start to see driverless trucks in 5-10 years, for a small segment of the industry, perhaps in limited geographical areas, maybe only at night. It will be minor, but it will increase every year.
In 10-20 years they will be common and unremarkable, filling many roles, and have a serious negative impact on CDL employment.
In 30 years truck drivers are going to be as common as farmers are today. They will be out there, but not many.
I think that your timeline for the implementation of driverless vehicles is a good estimate. I was thinking of a very similar timeline.
I think that certain segments of the trucking industry will be easier to automate than others. Truckloads going from big production plants to big distribution centers require less skill than, say, hauling logs out of a forest on a seasonal road. A lot of the daily delivery jobs (beverage, milk, food service) require a lot of physical work from the driver, and the driver has a sales role and also stocks the shelves in some cases. Replacing these drivers would require new positions to be created to fill the void of the service provided by the driver. I think those types of trucking jobs would be more difficult to fully automate (maybe those trucks always have a “rider” at the very least).
I am a driver in a more specialized segment (hauling cattle), so I view my job as more difficult to automate. I enjoy what I do, but I also don’t plan on being behind the wheel forever. I am fortunate enough to have a college degree and a variety of work experience prior to trucking, so I don’t feel as threatened by automation as some might. As long as the job is enjoyable I’ll keep doing it, but if the micromanaging gets excessive or I feel like automation is a real threat, I’ll work on transitioning to something else.
Hey, while your job is enjoyable; think of the poor slow truck stuck behind you on a hot summer's day! Now there is a job for robots!
I also drove truck; but have been retired for a decade. I haven't been following any cattle haulers recently; but it could have been worse (pigs or chickens).
I sense problems with AI taking over the trucking industry. Our government cannot keep the hackers out. I believe even Bill Gates was hacked. There are teams of terrorist that would love to use weapons, like trucks, against us. It is not only the truck's physical size and weight; it is also the cargo we carry (like hazardous chemicals). Think of all the tanker trucks carrying gasoline on our roads. Sometimes we carry explosives or weapons. It is our business to carry anything that needs to be carried. With AI our load manifest would be available and hackers could possible 'see' our weaknesses. That could even be happening today with our current system.
Human drivers have a responsibility to check our trucks before we go on the road and after any stops. This, as you know is part of our required pre-trip inspection. For AI to do this they need sensors and that means many sensors - like our tires to check pressure and temperature. There will have to be parameters established as to what is acceptable and what isn't. Yes; it could lead to 'safer' trucking - but it could also lead to law suits. Everything would rest on the backs of the companies and they would have no scapegoat. I should not say 'no scapegoat' they could try to pass off responsibility to the company that supplied the AI or sensors - but that is company against company; instead of company against driver. It could get interesting.
Trucking has always been known for providing just the bare minimum to their drivers. You have a motor, frame, wheels and a suspension designed to haul tons (not driver comfort). The companies lease trailers and drivers are supposed to be flexible and able to spot problems no matter who's equipment we are using. AI will also have to be 'flexible' and that means that the trailers, from all the leasing companies, will have to be upgraded. There will be a lot of cost involved and cost is what it is all about. They have to contain cost to be competitive. That is why they have always faulted their drivers; but they might be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire?
I really don't think we're at the point yet where technology can do this safely outside of urban areas. I mean every year GPS units tell drivers to go up roads that aren't plowed here in the mountains in the winter, the road to my property isn't even shown on any online maps, you take a GPS up the rural; tree-lined roads around me and the forest canopy cover interferes so much with a GPS, even a very good one, that you still end up 20 feet or more off. Not such a big deal if you're marking spots to return to in the woods later but 20 feet or even a foot is a big deal on the road. It's the difference between hitting someone and not on a two lane non-divided road. Trucks driving themselves are going to need some very good sensors to identify snowy and icy conditions and adjust their speed.
I do think as a nation we're going to be facing an unemployment and under employment crisis as these technologies do become practical which isn't that far off. The old model of working for a wage to live off of is going to become a thing of the past.
I really don't think we're at the point yet where technology can do this safely outside of urban areas. I mean every year GPS units tell drivers to go up roads that aren't plowed here in the mountains in the winter, the road to my property isn't even shown on any online maps, you take a GPS up the rural; tree-lined roads around me and the forest canopy cover interferes so much with a GPS, even a very good one, that you still end up 20 feet or more off. Not such a big deal if you're marking spots to return to in the woods later but 20 feet or even a foot is a big deal on the road. It's the difference between hitting someone and not on a two lane non-divided road. Trucks driving themselves are going to need some very good sensors to identify snowy and icy conditions and adjust their speed.
I do think as a nation we're going to be facing an unemployment and under employment crisis as these technologies do become practical which isn't that far off. The old model of working for a wage to live off of is going to become a thing of the past.
That is another question: How much of the coming AI is hype to keep wages down? If you are afraid you will be replaced; do you ask for a raise?
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Now there is a job for robots!
