What will the world look like, sound like, in 2015?

[BigCityDreamer]

Originally Posted by MalaMan

They were "niche" technology back then...

Steve Jobs announced the iPhone in January 2007. So, by December it was already pretty old news in America.

Smart watches, now that's different.

[Ariete]

Ok, so how about in 2023?

[censusdata]

In 2007 there was no reason to think that gas prices would continue to climb and force the American lifestyle to change. Then new technology (fracking) added decades to the Cheap Oil epic. We are being more energy efficient which helps further drag down energy prices.

[euro123]

Originally Posted by Ariete

Ok, so how about in 2023?

Seeing the dumb forecasts on the first page "Don't worry the world won't exist after 2012..." - this time I'd make more cautious 'predictions', but before that let's try to summarize exactly what has changed since 2007 (the date of the thread):

Since 2007 (the date the thread was started...):

-First American Black president.
-Civil war in Ukraine: Second cold war
-Explosion of mobile programs "apps", millions of apps for android/iphone...
-Higgs boson found?
-2008 financial crisis
-2010 earthquake in Haiti
-Paris attacks

Maybe among others.

Now in 8 years, 2023:

- Another major earthquake to happen somewhere killing 200k+
- Terrorists killing injuring 200+ somewhere
- First American female president
- UK/Greece/Hungary/Bulgaria leave the EU
- Major stock market crash in the US
- Something major happening in the space industry (Virgin Galactic sends people to space, moon hotel etc.)

99% all of the above will happen.

[bale002]

I feel comfortable with the predictions I made back in 2007, and again in 2013, except the fact that oil prices have declined, even precipitously, over the past 18 months or so.

Equally surprising is that this decline in oil prices has not led to an increase in consumption among average income earners, both in the US and elsewhere. In fact, the global economy is teetering on recession, some countries already are in recession (e.g. Brazil, Russia), some on the brink of it (Mexico, Canada, US, many eurozone countries chronically), and in several fast-growth countries it has certainly slowed (e.g. China).

At the same time, it is interesting to note that progress in alternative energies continues to be made, including recent initiatives to fund primary research.


Conclusions:

- the political price of oil is very, very high;
- we see that also reflected in massive migration patterns;
- but which in turn also reflect demographic trends in the countries of early industrialization;
- average incomes are not keeping pace with global supply capabilities of industrial goods and energy.


Prediction for 2023

The pace of globalization will continue to slow compared to the 1990s-2007 period. Only successful political and cultural upheaval at the grassroots level in several countries of early industrialization all at once would stall or reverse it, but that is unlikely.

The higher powers will continue to duke it out amongst themselves without sparking a serious global conflict, i.e. that kills millions in one spasm. A few civilian casualties here and there in the countries of early industrialization, like in Paris and San Bernadino, don't make much real difference to them and certainly no one cares how much metal falls out of the sky - and it is so cheap to take it out of the ground - between the eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, in fact it is a source of great profit.

Good Luck!