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Will the signing of peace accords between the Colombian government and the Farc-ep symbolize the end of an era? An era of armed insurgencies, not just in Colombia but in all of Latin America? There have only been two countries where armed left wing groups have managed to actually overthrow the people they were fighting against. I mean recent history and not past movements of independence. It seems like every where else guerrillas died off or were forced into signing peace treaties. Is it possible for more armed groups to rise up again? I presonally don't think its possible anymore. There is no international support for this anymore and any new groups, even if they have good reason to fight would be promptly labeled terrorist and treated as such by the international community.
That era died long ago. It has been several decades now that these guerrillas bastardized into something else. And, in the case of Farc, they never really had the chance to overthrow the Colombian government anyway, not even at their best time during the 90s. The best they could do was to take control over a few remote areas. The Colombian State always had way much more resources and power.
That era died long ago. It has been several decades now that these guerrillas bastardized into something else. And, in the case of Farc, they never really had the chance to overthrow the Colombian government anyway, not even at their best time during the 90s. The best they could do was to take control over a few remote areas. The Colombian State always had way much more resources and power.
I think you are right, it seems like the the majority of leftist armed groups died out a few decades ago. Does the farc currently hold any territory openly like they used to or are they pretty much in hiding and on the run now?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pueblofuerte
It will only be the end of an era if Colombians vote for the peace accord.
Oh wow, I though it was for sure. So if people vote no, they want the army to fight las farc until the end, until they are all dead or captured? Is that even possible? How capable and willing to fight are the farcs now?
And what about the group ELN? Are they part of the peace treaty?
That era died long ago. It has been several decades now that these guerrillas bastardized into something else. And, in the case of Farc, they never really had the chance to overthrow the Colombian government anyway, not even at their best time during the 90s. The best they could do was to take control over a few remote areas. The Colombian State always had way much more resources and power.
For sure, the FARC/ELN should have taken the deal that Pastora offered them in the 1990's. These two groups could have ended up with a territory the size of Switzerland.
Oh wow, I though it was for sure. So if people vote no, they want the army to fight las farc until the end, until they are all dead or captured? Is that even possible? How capable and willing to fight are the farcs now?
And what about the group ELN? Are they part of the peace treaty?
The ELN is not part of the peace treaty, they have their own peace treaty negotiations.
I don't think it will ever be possible to defeat the FARC because in today's world the FARC & ELN is just a front and their real conviction is drug trafficking. As long as there's demand in North America and Europe for drugs there will be drug cartels in Colombia as Colombia has the climatic conditions to produce up-to 6 coca harvests a year compared to 2-3 harvests in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia.
Guerilla tactics famously beat the Americans in Vietnam and the Russians in Afghanistan. They're practically impossible to defeat entirely, especially with Colombia's geography.
However, the thought that deluded drug trafficking criminals will be occupying public office with a political salary doesn't sit well with the Colombain public. It's basically inviting more corruption into the political system, giving the drug network the chance of expanding its web under the guise and shade provided by the power of public office.
If Santos doesn't pull off the peace treaty we could be looking at a more pro-millitary president in the next elections as many people voted for Santos not because of the peace treaty but to not revert back to the Colombia vs the rest of South America scenario in the past. However, that won't be a factor in the next elections as the populist left is crumbling in the region from Brazil to Venezuela and Argentina to Ecuador; countries that previously directly or indirectly supported the FARC.
For sure, the FARC/ELN should have taken the deal that Pastora offered them in the 1990's. These two groups could have ended up with a territory the size of Switzerland.
Correction: after some fact checking, I found that President Pastrana during his 1998-2002 term did offer the guerillas a 42000 square kilometer safe haven in Colombia during the negotiations. Does anyone know if a land-for-peace deal was offered to the FARC during this time, or was the safe haven only for the duration of the negotiations?
Correction: after some fact checking, I found that President Pastrana during his 1998-2002 term did offer the guerillas a 42000 square kilometer safe haven in Colombia during the negotiations. Does anyone know if a land-for-peace deal was offered to the FARC during this time, or was the safe haven only for the duration of the negotiations?
The safe haven was only offered for the duration of the negotiations but the FARC used this to regroup, re-arm, train and become a bigger stronger force and had little intention to negotiate a peace accord. This was the period when the whole of South America was veering to the populist left and one of the reasons many countries are in the mess they're currently in.
The safe zone was a complete mistake and no land deal will ever be offered again. The Colombian people won't permit it. In fact the converse is happening, people that were displaced from their lands are being given the land back that insurgent groups took away. This project is still in its infancy though with mixed success.
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